earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 By the way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Sock in clouds and fog im my area. Doubt we get much severe imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 So far the setups (all two of them,lol) have been far less than ideal. Last weeks had no trigger mechanism, today will be similar and also don't think we see the instability, especially NYC on east. Far western jersey, sw jersey into PA a different story and a different forecast area. I think the cloud debris will act as an inhibitor to the surface destabilization a good bit---but that doesn't mean that you can say the severe chances were low from the get go. That's the part of your post that I don't agree with at all. This is a solid setup thermodynamically and kinematically...there is a reason why, even despite the clouds, SPC is maintaining a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Given the clouds in the warm sector..the threat is definitely less. But there is certainly a trigger mechanism with a strong shortwave over Central PA at 18z, there is certainly enough instability even into Northeast NJ with 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE at 12z on all guidance..and there is certainly the potential for organized convection with 60+kts of 0-6km bulk shear. cool thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 it's going to be a pretty dramatic temp rise when the warm front passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 it's going to be a pretty dramatic temp rise when the warm front passes Good point. It's good to see the SREFs still bringing temperatures into the mid 70's in the warm sector. It happens ahead of the wind shift boundary, too, which is definitely a sign pointing towards more instability development. Matches up well with the higher severe probabilities on the SPC SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Per the surface map on Wunderground, the warm front has already cleared the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6zNam Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 So today is looking like pretty legitimate threat? Is the main threat gonna be wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 I think the cloud debris will act as an inhibitor to the surface destabilization a good bit---but that doesn't mean that you can say the severe chances were low from the get go. That's the part of your post that I don't agree with at all. This is a solid setup thermodynamically and kinematically...there is a reason why, even despite the clouds, SPC is maintaining a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Given the clouds in the warm sector..the threat is definitely less. But there is certainly a trigger mechanism with a strong shortwave over Central PA at 18z, there is certainly enough instability even into Northeast NJ with 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE at 12z on all guidance..and there is certainly the potential for organized convection with 60+kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Thanks John, this seems like one of those scearios where even a little sun will go a long way to destabilization. Taking a look at visible satalite, the cloud deck seems to be thinning as it moves eastward. Most of what's passing close to us now is associated with that squall line over New England and the warm front which should make it far enough north before the S/W arrives. Dense fog right now here which should be the warm front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Per the surface map on Wunderground, the warm front has already cleared the area. Not according to latest Weather Tap Surface Plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The warm front should be crossing Southern New Jersey shortly. Notice how quickly the temperatures jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 As per 10AM regional roundup, warm front appears to have made it through southern NJ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS TETERBORO CLOUDY 46 43 89 VRB5 29.92S FOG CALDWELL CLOUDY 45 45 100 E5 29.91F FOG MORRISTOWN CLOUDY 46 45 93 E7 29.91F FOG SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 48 45 89 E3 29.90R FOG SUSSEX CLOUDY 46 44 93 CALM 29.91F ANDOVER N/A 45 44 97 CALM 29.91S TRENTON CLOUDY 48 45 89 E5 29.90S FOG MILLVILLE SUNNY 62 55 77 CALM 29.87R ATLANTIC CITY MOSUNNY 59 52 77 CALM 29.90F WRIGHTSTOWN CLOUDY 48 46 93 CALM 29.88S TOMS RIVER CLOUDY 48 46 93 CALM 29.91S BELMAR CLOUDY 46 46 100 E8 29.89F VSB 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The warm front is hung up right now over south Jersey, and the fog here right now is indicative of its approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Mid-level lapse rates are already through the roof just south of the warm front and there is plenty of moisture headed our way for those that said that would be a limiting factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Per the surface map on Wunderground, the warm front has already cleared the area. Er? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 plenty of warm air above to mix down... 850 mb mesoanalysis already has temps of 16C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 9z SREF doing well so far with temps. Millville at 72F as of 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 The cloud thinning over Central PA is a good sign. The warm front wind shift/clearing line is clearly observed on visible satellite. It's making good progress up to near Philly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Meanwhile....what in the name of moses is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=LongIsland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The cloud thinning over Central PA is a good sign. The warm front wind shift/clearing line is clearly observed on visible satellite. It's making good progress up to near Philly now. Sun just peaked out here in delaware county, SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 WRF remains unimpressed. It shows a cluster of light QPF moving over the area. Makes you wonder if its a very fast moving MCS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 WRF remains unimpressed. It shows a cluster of light QPF moving over the area. Makes you wonder if its a very fast moving MCS? If you're talking about the SPC WRF...it's not updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 If you're talking about the SPC WRF...it's not updated yet. I was refering to the one on e-wall, which I'm guessing is the same as the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 I was refering to the one on e-wall, which I'm guessing is the same as the NAM? Correct, that's just a locally higher resolution version of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The warmth cometh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 Warm front about to enter Monmouth County--Mercer County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 The fog has cleared here and I am getting some brief views of the sun through the thinning clouds and a temperature of 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Looks like we may get a few discrete cells out ahead of whatever the main show is taking a look at the synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2011 Author Share Posted April 20, 2011 You can see the sun having a greater effect now, even here, as the clouds thin slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Workin in Holmdel. Sun is trying to pop out. Clouds holding the best they can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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