Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Another severe weather set up for today. I live in Joplin and I think storms will fire from early afternoon and be out of my viewing area by 4 or 5 pm. I think the best chances for severe weather will be from AR-central MO-ILL. What are you guys thinking. Doug Heady Joplinmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The people from our area are kind of quiet from April --> October or so, so not sure how many follow this. I'm curious about initiation and whether it will be west or east of Joplin. The RUC shows storms trying to build but it's close on if they initiate west or east of here and for some reason the HRRR isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The people from our area are kind of quiet from April --> October or so, so not sure how many follow this. I am not sure why people's interest in weather seems to be so tilted towards frozen precip - but personally speaking, I am on board in every season. Spring is quite engaging - although it does get a tad boring in mid-summer with long stretches of hot dry weather. Will be watching this one closely for sure - and making sure the cars are out of harm's way as much as possible with 45% hatched for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I am not sure why people's interest in weather seems to be so tilted towards frozen precip - but personally speaking, I am on board in every season. Spring is quite engaging - although it does get a tad boring in mid-summer with long stretches of hot dry weather. Will be watching this one closely for sure - and making sure the cars are out of harm's way as much as possible with 45% hatched for hail. yeah I guess maybe because severe weather is common in this area? Summer is really boring though, especially last summer, however I think we will have a more active summer this year. The front is really blasting eastward pretty quickly but will probably decelerate some once it reaches the mountains of Arkansas and SE OK. HRRR is back updating, shows an almost supercellular initiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 It does look like more severe events are possible. The GFS has moist dewpoints returning quite rapidly for the next system. Then other chances in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Yep the front is through Joplin, I would say Springfield is even on the edge. That front was moving, it has dropped big time in temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Hey JoMo, friend me on facebook if you aren't already on there. I always discuss what is going on. Kinda funny to hear the viewers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I don't actually have a Facebook. Never really got into that whole thing, but I do see how it could be helpful for severe weather, as well as using Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm always around for severe wx, I just don't talk much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Well I will make sure to get on here more during severe weather chances and we will all have to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
155mph+ Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Thats the same way I am. I'm always on here but never post anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I just don't KNOW anything beyond what is taught in a spotter class. I hang out here to learn from ya'll. I'll report conditions once in a while, but that's about it. I really appreciate the discussions around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Pushed out a 19Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis, I am currently tracking the higher threat areas of Poplar Bluff, MO-Scott AFB, IL-Paducah, KY-Owensboro,KY, Dequeen, AR, with Poplar Bluff, MO to Scott AFB,IL with the highest. As of this hour shwoing Surface based CAPE around 2400 J/kg, 0-3KM SRH is running 310 m/s, which is decent for favorable tornado environment, 0-1KM Shear is running about 40 knots and 0-3KM CAPE around 220 J/kg. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ya I think the prime spots around in west central and central AR. And then up in Illinois along that triple point. That cap is breaking. I was hoping to see some around here but the front was booking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Pushed out a 19Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis, I am currently tracking the higher threat areas of Poplar Bluff, MO-Scott AFB, IL-Paducah, KY-Owensboro,KY, Dequeen, AR, with Poplar Bluff, MO to Scott AFB,IL with the highest. As of this hour shwoing Surface based CAPE around 2400 J/kg, 0-3KM SRH is running 310 m/s, which is decent for favorable tornado environment, 0-1KM Shear is running about 40 knots and 0-3KM CAPE around 220 J/kg. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf How bout that... possible threat of an F6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 How bout that... possible threat of an F6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I just don't KNOW anything beyond what is taught in a spotter class. I hang out here to learn from ya'll. I'll report conditions once in a while, but that's about it. I really appreciate the discussions around here. I enjoy the modeling aspect of it, and basically the setup of everything the most. It's just really exciting to me. The actual weather taking place, whether it is severe or wintry doesn't excite me as much for some reason. Like the setup with the supercells and tornadoes would have been much much worse had we had a better supply of moisture ahead of the system last week and a few other things. This was the system that you all had tornado warnings with last week. And today, if there was a bit less of a cap up me and Joplinmet's way, we could have seen pretty bad early day storms. The SPC mesoanalysis page was crazy for severe weather mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 That front has appeared to slow down over the past hour, perhaps only gaining 15 miles over Benton County AR. Seemed like earlier it was going considerably faster. The storm in Benton County is starting to get the "look". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I enjoy the modeling aspect of it, and basically the setup of everything the most. It's just really exciting to me. The actual weather taking place, whether it is severe or wintry doesn't excite me as much for some reason. Like the setup with the supercells and tornadoes would have been much much worse had we had a better supply of moisture ahead of the system last week and a few other things. This was the system that you all had tornado warnings with last week. And today, if there was a bit less of a cap up me and Joplinmet's way, we could have seen pretty bad early day storms. The SPC mesoanalysis page was crazy for severe weather mid-morning. Ya I tend to think similarly. I like the build-up to an event...but once stuff initiates, unless I'm chasing or it could affect my backyard...I don't follow it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 That front has appeared to slow down over the past hour, perhaps only gaining 15 miles over Benton County AR. Seemed like earlier it was going considerably faster. The storm in Benton County is starting to get the "look". yep, slowed down once it hit the 'mountains' plus the southern end is supposed to stall down in OK I believe. Looks like any rotation would be down towards the SW of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 How bout that... possible threat of an F6 Sorry, that field has some kind of error in it, trying to figure that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 These babies are rouring now. AR, southern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Yeah I think that big supercell in SE OK is probably going to miss Ft. Smith but the front still hasn't passed there so they are still under the gun. Also will be interesting to see what happens with those storms east of the line now popping up in AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Tornado warning to your south Ozarkwx on that other cell. Edit: And the one to your northeast. See anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Tornado warning to your south Ozarkwx on that other cell. Edit: And the one to your northeast. See anything? So far nothing although a ton of polygons. Video cam locked and loaded just in case. Is that 5 polygons over Carroll Co Ar at one time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Streaming now on 40/29 Edit: This is most we could wring out of the dynamics here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Doug and JoMo also Ozarkwx, I got to watch this thing fire today while working at forest park cemetery today by the Northpark mall. The towers went up quick it seemed like within 15 to 25 minutes and it was darker then hades there. LOL. Kept waiting for the rain ,hail and lightining but nothing happened waht a disappointment . Oh well just hope we dont get a huge outbreak nailing us this year , close is ok but not in our necks . What are your thoughts this weekend and early next week Doug and JoMo?????? Matt in Joplin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Doug and JoMo also Ozarkwx, I got to watch this thing fire today while working at forest park cemetery today by the Northpark mall. The towers went up quick it seemed like within 15 to 25 minutes and it was darker then hades there. LOL. Kept waiting for the rain ,hail and lightining but nothing happened waht a disappointment . Oh well just hope we dont get a huge outbreak nailing us this year , close is ok but not in our necks . What are your thoughts this weekend and early next week Doug and JoMo?????? Matt in Joplin The next chance for Severe will probably be Friday evening from the looks of things now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 It's gonna rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Tornado watch with a storm popping up just north of Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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