Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

April 19-21 Severe Threat


Gastonwxman

Recommended Posts

Looks as though convection will once more initiate for portions of the Southeast as yet another cold front swings into our region with some instability to work with to help cause additional storm development. This go around a linear-style convective mode will be key here, suggesting damaging winds to be primary threat. Don't see any major threat for super cells at this point but bears watching. Not a huge chance for severe weather (at least as of now).

Meanwhile further west, the dynamics will be much more powerful and support full-blown severe weather action from eastern OK northeastward to parts of the Ohio Valley before the front pushes through the Southeast. From large hail to isolated weak/strong tornadoes is possible for the affected areas. With high lapse rates, this indicates some strong instability to be available in conjunction with a developing surface low crossing the Midwest and of course the cold front/warm front advancing will allow the storms to rapidly fire and get quite an attitude. Regarding anything to cap this, the cap for the affected regions should eventually break from said dynamics and force initiation of convection during the afternoon period. Of course, the upper dynamics regarding shear are looking good enough that a few of those cells become supercellular in a short period of time. There could be discrete supercells but due to the forcing ahead of the front, eventually a more squall-like feature shows up even for those affected by the strongest of storms that form and therefore the wind damage threat increases for those folks as well. day1otlk_1200.gif

day2otlk_0600.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 69
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The wedge front will lie in a pretty good postion for the SW side near GA and western SC and maybe sw NC to get into a decent severe threat late Tomorrow and again on Thursday afternoon. Matter of fact almost anyone near the front is game, but its hard to pin down conv. induced vorts, but they should be around next few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aware of it indeed. Latest guidance is suggesting that the convection is entering an unfavorable air mass to the point where they die before reaching the Carolinas. However, since we will still have the front to pass through the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours, combined with some instability provided by good lapse rates (per the GFS) and decent shear could still provide some scattered strong or severe storms through the area with strong winds/large hail for spots affected. Still, the best place to go for storms will be across the Gulf States and back into parts of the Arklatex region, as well as in portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The chance is little but still there for some folks outside the Apps to receive showers and isolated storms.

Current view of the developing front:

southmissvly_loop.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aware of it indeed. Latest guidance is suggesting that the convection is entering an unfavorable air mass to the point where they die before reaching the Carolinas. However, since we will still have the front to pass through the Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening hours, combined with some instability provided by good lapse rates (per the GFS) and decent shear could still provide some scattered strong or severe storms through the area with strong winds/large hail for spots affected. Still, the best place to go for storms will be across the Gulf States and back into parts of the Arklatex region, as well as in portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The chance is little but still there for some folks outside the Apps to receive showers and isolated storms.

Current view of the developing front:

In my opinion the storms could die out initially tomorrow due to lower dewpoint pooling here, but late tom. night and again on Thursday they will develop along the wedge front around N. GA, se TN and sw NC, and most anywhere in SC. That could be a training type of severe day in those regions (which include you and me), so I'd keep an eye on that. A couple of times in the past in this setup, its actually been pretty severe with supercells moving off the mtns and intensifying across the CLT region or CAE area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Figured I post this right quick. That is some impressive bowing going on for those in the Midwest atm. Very nasty wind damage across the affected areas, and plenty of tornado warnings prompted. Quite an active night it will be for those folks. A couple of cells in AR are putting out some impressive stats with 3 inch hail reported in the southwestern portion.

In my opinion the storms could die out initially tomorrow due to lower dewpoint pooling here, but late tom. night and again on Thursday they will develop along the wedge front around N. GA, se TN and sw NC, and most anywhere in SC. That could be a training type of severe day in those regions (which include you and me), so I'd keep an eye on that. A couple of times in the past in this setup, its actually been pretty severe with supercells moving off the mtns and intensifying across the CLT region or CAE area.

Agreed. I sense that in the case of training, it could be like what happened last year during August. That one produced some of the nastiest severe cells I've ever seen especially the one that caused tremendous CG lightning (and was responsible for "burning" half of the electronics in the house, destruction of the cable box, and a couple of gas leaks). Have video of the lightning that struck the powerbox causing all this. I believe that was also the same event where Polkeville was hit by a supercell that developed and found its way into that area IIRC. I will definitely keep an eye on such a feature throughout late tomorrow and Thursday.

EDIT(3:22am): Tornado watches for all of TN and northern MS currently active.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some strong storms are moving into northwestern Georgia right now, as the front has stalled across north central Alabama and Mississippi. There could be quite a bit of flooding in these areas.

Also, those of us to the south of this line are going to have to watch out for a few scattered thunderstorms... Did I not get the memo about summer starting early this year?? :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pouring down rain, some thunder and lightning but not that impressive, No signal for the satellite from the heavy rain.

It poured for 5 minutes on me for a total of .05".:gun_bandana:

Hopefully the stratoform rain can hold together a bit longer to give me some more before it fizzles away too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It poured for 5 minutes on me for a total of .05".:gun_bandana:

Hopefully the stratoform rain can hold together a bit longer to give me some more before it fizzles away too.

Do you think the additional storms in Mississippi swing through later today or will this current batch have clearing behind it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you think the additional storms in Mississippi swing through later today or will this current batch have clearing behind it?

I think this will be the bulk of what we get for today. I think the best chances for significant storms will be south of Atlanta today. I could be wrong but that's just the feeling I have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...