Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[CoastalWx]

I spent most of the night in the basement of a guy named Allan Weiss in Malvern PA outside Philly. He was a serious hobbyist and expert on noreasters. He wrote an article on the 1899 blizzard with Paul Kocin. He had a full on weather station, old style, DIFAX, 3 different monitors, one dedicated just to radars. He showed me the coastal front forming along south carolina. He showed me data from the prior Thursday that showed a 200 knot jet streak up in like Montana...said that was when he knew it was going to be a biggie. Showed me the ETA output of over 3 ft of snow for Philly and that we should cut it by a third. I was there til like 3 in the morning, drove home to Center City Philly, went to sleep for 3 hours, woke up and told my client my flight had been cancelled ( a lie that cost me 5000 dollars) and then just watched it snow and snow and snow. Awesome. Broke my 30 inch cherry

Yeah Philly and some of those areas in the hills west of town got crushed. BWI-PHI seems to be the Miller A jackpot. We had some OES enhancement in my neck of the woods where I lived.

[mahk_webstah]

Yeah Philly and some of those areas in the hills west of town got crushed. BWI-PHI seems to be the Miller A jackpot. We had some OES enhancement in my neck of the woods where I lived.

Yes indeedy, can have some bad winters there, but lots of good storms.

We are the kings of Miller Bs, SWFEs, clippers and windexers though

[MaineJayhawk]

Yes indeedy, can have some bad winters there, but lots of good storms.

We are the kinds of Miller Bs, SWFEs, clippers and windexers though

Hatchet thru the head just thinking about a BWI winter. No offense to Baltimoreans, just a winter lover here.

[nzucker]

Yep and loving it, PAC Who?

Let's not kid ourselves...the Pacific is having a significant effect on the pattern. One of the reasons this 12/8 threat is difficult to realize is because of the raging GoA low (common in Niña years) that isn't allowing the ridge axis to be oriented properly over Idaho/Montana. If we had an El Niño, there'd probably be more of an Aleutian low teleconnecting to a +PNA that would make this storm a much bigger threat.

I'm very bullish. This is not last year's NAO. This is a much colder Arctic and Canada. 2/25 would clobber us in this pattern.....

If we can keep the -AO/-NAO block this year, it should be a very cold pattern. The cryosphere tends to be much stronger in a strong La Niña, Canada tends to be a lot colder. It isn't a surprise that 70-71, a moderate Niña with good blocking, was one of the coldest winters on record for Vermont, and one of the snowiest. It might be hard to maintain this level of high-latitude blocking as we continue with the winter and develop a more potent PV, at least that's my worry Jerry....

[ORH_wxman]

Let's not kid ourselves...the Pacific is having a significant effect on the pattern. One of the reasons this 12/8 threat is difficult to realize is because of the raging GoA low (common in Niña years) that isn't allowing the ridge axis to be oriented properly over Idaho/Montana. If we had an El Niño, there'd probably be more of an Aleutian low teleconnecting to a +PNA that would make this storm a much bigger threat.

PAC always has an effect since its where our shortwaves come from, but its getting completely owned by the Atlantic once the block sets up shortly. Lets not kid ourselves on this part either, this is not the pattern that anyone expected to see. Even when I was talking about a NAO block and a vortex trapped underneath in SE Canada, I never thought it would get this extreme...I figured the tendency for a SE ridge would keep things pumped up enough to get a lot of storm systems in here via SWFE or redevelopers...and that is clearly going to be a very tough task to accomplish. (at least the SWFE part)

[Ginx snewx]

Let's not kid ourselves...the Pacific is having a significant effect on the pattern. One of the reasons this 12/8 threat is difficult to realize is because of the raging GoA low (common in Niña years) that isn't allowing the ridge axis to be oriented properly over Idaho/Montana. If we had an El Niño, there'd probably be more of an Aleutian low teleconnecting to a +PNA t

if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, been trying to tell you for months it's not all about the PAC , you ever think there is a greater power and that drives the bus? Throw a boulder in a fast moving stream and watch the eddies break off. Still going with - .5 for the major four SNE climo sites and only ORH with six inches of total snow by the 15th?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Got my Davis rainfall cone all cleared of debris and ready for our final cutter before winter sets in.

43.8\41....some transient sprinkles eveident....

[nzucker]

PAC always has an effect since its where our shortwaves come from, but its getting completely owned by the Atlantic once the block sets up shortly. Lets not kid ourselves on this part either, this is not the pattern that anyone expected to see. Even when I was talking about a NAO block and a vortex trapped underneath in SE Canada, I never thought it would get this extreme...I figured the tendency for a SE ridge would keep things pumped up enough to get a lot of storm systems in here via SWFE or redevelopers...and that is clearly going to be a very tough task to accomplish. (at least the SWFE part)

I'm just saying that the Niña-like GoA low is making this storm more difficult, and this may be one of the reasons why we've only seen one KU event in a strong La Niña (March '56). I totally agree that the blocking is getting to an extreme level, really unprecedented for the ENSO state. We're dealing with a suppressive situation like February 5th of last year, which I never imagined happening in one of the strongest La Niñas in recent history. It looks like we won't have much of a chance for SW flow with a huge trough anchored over the East and -10C 850mb temperatures getting all the way down to Georgia on recent GFS runs. I'm really wondering now if the solar minimum is trumping the usual factors in determining the NAO/AO state. Even with the NAO scheduled to break down on modeling, we then get a monster -AO block with that ridging over Kamchatka arriving at the North Pole and bringing some bitter cold temperatures into Canada.

if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, been trying to tell you for months it's not all about the PAC , you ever think there is a greater power and that drives the bus? Throw a boulder in a fast moving stream and watch the eddies break off. Still going with - .5 for the major four SNE climo sites and only ORH with six inches of total snow by the 15th?

Yes, I think solar is a greater power, but that still doesn't mean the Pacific state is unimportant. A GoA low makes it tremendously hard to get a major snowstorm for the East Coast, and that's something the La Niña bequeathed to us.

I think temperatures may be colder, more towards what you said, not sure about the snow. The GFS and ECM are both bitterly cold in the long range as the Arctic block develops and accelerates despite the strong La Niña.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Per 0z NAM fous, 39 knot south winds at LGA tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm just saying that the Niña-like GoA low is making this storm more difficult, and this may be one of the reasons why we've only seen one KU event in a strong La Niña (March '56). I totally agree that the blocking is getting to an extreme level, really unprecedented for the ENSO state. We're dealing with a suppressive situation like February 5th of last year, which I never imagined happening in one of the strongest La Niñas in recent history. It looks like we won't have much of a chance for SW flow with a huge trough anchored over the East and -10C 850mb temperatures getting all the way down to Georgia on recent GFS runs. I'm really wondering now if the solar minimum is trumping the usual factors in determining the NAO/AO state. Even with the NAO scheduled to break down on modeling, we then get a monster -AO block with that ridging over Kamchatka arriving at the North Pole and bringing some bitter cold temperatures into Canada.

Yes, I think solar is a greater power, but that still doesn't mean the Pacific state is unimportant. A GoA low makes it tremendously hard to get a major snowstorm for the East Coast, and that's something the La Niña bequeathed to us.

I think temperatures may be colder, more towards what you said, not sure about the snow. The GFS and ECM are both bitterly cold in the long range as the Arctic block develops and accelerates despite the strong La Niña.

Well yes, an I-95 KU storm was never really discussed seriously as a possibility during this time frame...and shouldn't be. If it happens, its certainly a rarity...especially in a potent La Nina.

My interest is more in how the Atlantic is just dominating the PAC flow...it runs into a brick wall over the eastern CONUS...and models even pump up a huge ridge in the rockies and central US in response to this road block. It like running and then skidding on a rug and it just buckles upward...something that you just hardly ever see with a big GOA low ripping a PAC jet into the CONUS.

Here's a good image of that PAC jet just getting rejected by the block and associated ridge in the central CONUS.

Now who knows exactly how all of this is going to play out...I know I sure don't. But I am personally very interested to follow the evolution of this. These are the types of setups that should be cherished as you can learn a lot from them. The "this wasn't supposed to happen" type setups.

[nzucker]

Here's a good image of that PAC jet just getting rejected by the block and associated ridge in the central CONUS.

Now who knows exactly how all of this is going to play out...I know I sure don't. But I am personally very interested to follow the evolution of this. These are the types of setups that should be cherished as you can learn a lot from them. The "this wasn't supposed to happen" type setups.

Yeah I am definitely learning a lot from this set-up. Will, what do you think is the ultimate cause of all this blocking?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DT giving play by play for the 0Z runs

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=tinychat

[CoastalWx]

The blocking seemed to really get established when the MJO went weakly into Phase 8. Notice the MJO signal has been real weak over the past few weeks, with the central Pacific ridge becoming a permanent feature. It makes you wonder if this pattern wants to go back to a strongly -nao base state when the forcing over the ENSO regions becomes negligible. I feel like this configuration of central Pacific ridge, GOA low, and having it teleconnect to a ridge near Greenland is very stable currently. This doesn't mean we see this pattern continue through March, but it's certainly an eye brow raiser.

[ORH_wxman]

The blocking seemed to really get established when the MJO went weakly into Phase 8. Notice the MJO signal has been real weak over the past few weeks, with the central Pacific ridge becoming a permanent feature. It makes you wonder if this pattern wants to go back to a strongly -nao base state when the forcing over the ENSO regions becomes negligible. I feel like this configuration of central Pacific ridge, GOA low, and having it teleconnect to a ridge near Greenland is very stable currently. This doesn't mean we see this pattern continue through March, but it's certainly an eye brow raiser.

Ukie ensembles and Canadian ensembles want to bring the MJO out into more active territory in phase 4/5 for a week or so which would theoretically cause a warmer look here before going to phase 6 (and possibly staying strong beyond that) which would cool things back down before migrat....we'll have to see how the NAO responds. GFS ensembles want to keep it more in the circle of death which would mean very little influence.

Not sure what the ECMWF ensembles want to do, but they certainly do not have a warm look to them in the longer range.

[nzucker]

Ukie ensembles and Canadian ensembles want to bring the MJO out into more active territory in phase 4/5 for a week or so which would theoretically cause a warmer look here....we'll have to see how the NAO responds. GFS ensembles want to keep it more in the circle of death which would mean very little influence.

Not sure what the ECMWF ensembles want to do, but they certainly do not have a warm look to them in the longer range.

I think the rex block over the GoA could save us if the NAO rises to neutral/positive. 18z GFS really builds that ridge into N AK/Beaufort Sea.

[dryslot]

over 90 in the caht being entertained by DT......

[OKpowdah]

00z GFS made a pretty decent jump toward the Euro

[CoastalWx]

Ukie ensembles and Canadian ensembles want to bring the MJO out into more active territory in phase 4/5 for a week or so which would theoretically cause a warmer look here before going to phase 6 (and possibly staying strong beyond that) which would cool things back down before migrat....we'll have to see how the NAO responds. GFS ensembles want to keep it more in the circle of death which would mean very little influence.

Not sure what the ECMWF ensembles want to do, but they certainly do not have a warm look to them in the longer range.

Yeah that might be a test coming up. We'll have to see how it reacts to any unfavorable forcing. FWIW, the EC NAO plumes do show it relaxing by mid month, but then members drop it again towards the end of the month.

[TalcottWx]

It would be awesome if my tiny chat would work.

[OKpowdah]

It would be awesome if my tiny chat would work.

mostly nothing more than what you're gonna get here, only with more weenie soundbites in the mix

[Mr Torchey]

0z gfs may get fun in a minute.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is just absolutely overbearing with that blocked vortex spinning overhead through D5-6.

[Mr Torchey]

GFS is just absolutely overbearing with that blocked vortex spinning overhead through D5-6.

Will, do you buy into that depiction of place and strength so early in the season?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, do you buy into that depiction of place and strength so early in the season?

Well its not going to be far off from that. All guidance is on board for it, so its hard to say it wont happen. I suppose a little weaker or a little further north is possible and that could make a difference in snow threats.

[ROOSTA]

It would be awesome if my tiny chat would work.

Your missing nothing Jay. Trust me....D'OH Mostly trash and more trash.

Stay local

[Mr Torchey]

Well its not going to be far off from that. All guidance is on board for it, so its hard to say it wont happen. I suppose a little weaker or a little further north is possible and that could make a difference in snow threats.

Thanks, I just find it hard to believe that vortex will be that far south and that strong, still think some flurries light snows around monday, certainly larger ramifications for storm two regarding amplification and timing.

[CoastalWx]

Well its not going to be far off from that. All guidance is on board for it, so its hard to say it wont happen. I suppose a little weaker or a little further north is possible and that could make a difference in snow threats.

And then your carpet analogy kicks up a ridge in central Canada. That ULL isn't going anywhere fast.

[TalcottWx]

Your missing nothing Jay. Trust me....D'OH Mostly trash and more trash.

Stay local

Got ya!

[weathafella]

I think the rex block over the GoA could save us if the NAO rises to neutral/positive. 18z GFS really builds that ridge into N AK/Beaufort Sea.

You love the 18Z runs. I never take the off hours too seriously...maybe I'm wrong...

[Ginx snewx]

I'm just saying that the Niña-like GoA low is making this storm more difficult, and this may be one of the reasons why we've only seen one KU event in a strong La Niña (March '56). I totally agree that the blocking is getting to an extreme level, really unprecedented for the ENSO state. We're dealing with a suppressive situation like February 5th of last year, which I never imagined happening in one of the strongest La Niñas in recent history. It looks like we won't have much of a chance for SW flow with a huge trough anchored over the East and -10C 850mb temperatures getting all the way down to Georgia on recent GFS runs. I'm really wondering now if the solar minimum is trumping the usual factors in determining the NAO/AO state. Even with the NAO scheduled to break down on modeling, we then get a monster -AO block with that ridging over Kamchatka arriving at the North Pole and bringing some bitter cold temperatures into Canada.

Yes, I think solar is a greater power, but that still doesn't mean the Pacific state is unimportant. A GoA low makes it tremendously hard to get a major snowstorm for the East Coast, and that's something the La Niña bequeathed to us.

I think temperatures may be colder, more towards what you said, not sure about the snow. The GFS and ECM are both bitterly cold in the long range as the Arctic block develops and accelerates despite the strong La Niña.

Ah , my thoughts exactly, the issue now is timing of SW as the block relxes even a bit, the poser is ther, need a match. Good work Nate.