Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[HoarfrostHubb]

The units would be degrees Celsius...but I'm not sure exactly how it's formulated.

Thanks... so you won't be in Blackstone anymore?

[CoastalWx]

With a more east based -NAO developing and the PAC becoming a bit more hostile, I think systems are more likely to trend north than the ridiculous conditions that existed last winter. It obviously doesn't mean they have to, but I'll take the odds on that.

Yeah I agree with you guys. Luckily we don't have the GOA digging too far south...at least not yet. I'm actually not too worried about suppression at this point, but my gut says the euro op may trend a little further south at 12z...which would be a good thing. I'm just happy we have something in the 7 day window...give or take.

[OSUmetstud]

Thanks... so you won't be in Blackstone anymore?

I won't be in Bermuda anymore...I'm moving in with Amy in Blackstone on Dec. 11th.

I should note that the RMSE for Temperature at Day 10 is 5C at 850mb....so that GFS bias is very small...much smaller than the average error at that range.

[CoastalWx]

I won't be in Bermuda anymore...I'm moving in with Amy in Blackstone on Dec. 11th.

I should note that the RMSE for Temperature at Day 10 is 5C at 850mb....so that GFS bias is very small...much smaller than the average error at that range.

Hopefully you bring the Bermuda tropical cyclone magnet with you.

[OSUmetstud]

[WeatherX]

Going to be a very long week of model watching for most of us!

Yup, the hobby is really going to cut into the work schedule. Oh well, it happens every winter.....

Nice snow game on ESPN by the way......Cincy vs. Pitt......

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like a 1-3" type clipper on the GGEM

[40/70 Benchmark]

I won't be in Bermuda anymore...I'm moving in with Amy in Blackstone on Dec. 11th.

I should note that the RMSE for Temperature at Day 10 is 5C at 850mb....so that GFS bias is very small...much smaller than the average error at that range.

Nice to hear; congrats.

Did you find a job

[OSUmetstud]

Do these Archambault events only happen with a rising NAO? Or can it happen when the NAO is becoming more negative?

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least we have something within d7..lol. Hopefully the euro op looks better than previous runs.

I do agree the signals are there. Looks like Ray is violently shoving coal into the miller b train to try and fire her up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Do these Archambault events only happen with a rising NAO? Or can it happen when the NAO is becoming more negative?

They can happen under both circumstances, but more often the former.

[OKpowdah]

Do these Archambault events only happen with a rising NAO? Or can it happen when the NAO is becoming more negative?

I think in fact her research focuses on decreasing NAO cases

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think in fact her research focuses on decreasing NAO cases

Without researching it, I disagree.

[OKpowdah]

They can happen under both circumstances, but more often the former.

A 1948–2003 statistical analysis of daily cool-season NE precipitation during NAO and PNA transitions reveals that above-normal precipitation is associated with NAO⁺ to NAO⁻ and PNA⁻ to PNA⁺ transitions and below-normal precipitation is associated with NAO⁻ to NAO⁺ and PNA⁺ to PNA⁻ transitions

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, I stand corrected, but I'm fairly certain that you can find as many instances when the NAO block was breaking down as when it was building....

[Hazey]

Looks like a 1-3" type clipper on the GGEM

Is that the 12z run? and if it is, where do I find it? I know the 0z goes out to 240hr. Thanks

<edit> I found it. Disregard.

[WeatherX]

More of a short term concern, but the Euro has been hitting the Rev's potential in a consistent manner the last few runs....this looks like a quick inch perhaps.....This is KBDR off the 12Z run...I'm almost ashamed to post this but snow is snow.....

MON 06Z 06-DEC   0.0   -11.1    1002      66      87    0.02     522     520    
MON 12Z 06-DEC  -0.3   -11.5    1000      69      95    0.04     520     519    
MON 18Z 06-DEC   2.0   -10.8     996      53      84    0.03     518     521    
TUE 00Z 07-DEC   0.7   -11.1     997      61      83    0.01     519     522   

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like snow breaks out Friday night and ends sometime next Sat...Blizz likey

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like snow breaks out Friday night and ends sometime next Sat...Blizz likey

[ORH_wxman]

Well, I stand corrected, but I'm fairly certain that you can find as many instances when the NAO block was breaking down as when it was building....

I think its less frequent when the NAO block is breaking down, but its more likely to be a snow event when it happens. The blizzard of 1996 and February 2006 were two examples of coming out of a -NAO regime.

[Damage In Tolland]

Model concensus says that's how it plays out currently

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think its less frequent when the NAO block is breaking down, but its more likely to be a snow event when it happens. The blizzard of 1996 and February 2006 were two examples of coming out of a -NAO regime.

Ok, I kind of figured that because I know for a fact that we get more KUs when it is breaking down; Sam's quote only mentioned "precipitation" events.....

Thanks.

[OKpowdah]

I think its less frequent when the NAO block is breaking down, but its more likely to be a snow event when it happens. The blizzard of 1996 and February 2006 were two examples of coming out of a -NAO regime.

Was just about the post the same thing. I think the +NAO to -NAO transition event is more often a lakes cutter considering it's track is influenced by the +NAO regime.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Model concensus says that's how it plays out currently

Looks good for snow, but this lead is inherently too great to call for a blizz. lol

[CoastalWx]

Euro does not like the gfs solution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro does not like the gfs solution.

Shocking.....probably snow to rain for the cp.

[cpickett79]

Shocking.....probably snow to rain for the cp.

what is the highest bridge on the way to the GTG today via framingham. I'm sitting next to money pit mike and were gonna laugh about how good the models look 7-14 days out.

edit ....just got a call from gf's mom....snowing outside raleigh. NC mountains looks like winter wonder lands on cams.

beach mtn NC FTW

[CoastalWx]

LOL, the anti gfs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL, the anti gfs.

Can you elaborate a little....I'm about to leave and the cryptic posts are killing me....

[ORH_wxman]

Was just about the post the same thing. I think the +NAO to -NAO transition event is more often a lakes cutter considering it's track is influenced by the +NAO regime.

The fact that the precipitation is less frequent during the -NAO to +NAO transition is a reflection of the blocking suppressing systems...but when one comes along, its much more likely to be a KU event.

Still we've had some great ones in the +NAO to -NAO regime...January 22-23, 2005 was one. A lot of the New England-centric storms though are less reliant on having the -NAO first.