CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yeah I would think if that lead shorwave over the ocean wasn't there you'd be talking about at least a weak miller B developing around 162-168 hours. Agreed. There would probably be some OES type stuff in favorable areas along the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Followed by bitter cold, then a cutter, and finally a storm stalled east of BOS because the ridiculous block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It may be the one offshore causing some of the issues I think. Then, a follow up monster develops and moves east of the benchmark. This storm has also been flagged. Looks like next weekend will be demanding our attention. Interesting that both the euro and gfs have now identified the saturday event followed by a bigger system on 12/13. Looks like SNE is bound to get some snow from at least the 1st system. One thing that looks like a sure bet is brutal cold! Wow! The problem is will the 12/13 system follow the tracks laid down by this weekend's systems. La Ninas do argue for a more offshore solution. Uggh its painful watching bombogenesis at 67 longitude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Agreed. There would probably be some OES type stuff in favorable areas along the coast as well. It's almost like the same thing happens at 192 hours. If you remove that slop at 500mb around the NYC area...the shortwave over the Ohio valley has a better chance of turning the corner a bit sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like next weekend will be demanding our attention. Interesting that both the euro and gfs have now identified the saturday event followed by a bigger system on 12/13. Looks like SNE is bound to get some snow from at least the 1st system. One thing that looks like a sure bet is brutal cold! Wow! The problem is will the 12/13 system follow the tracks laid down by this weekend's systems. La Ninas do argue for a more offshore solution. Uggh its painful watching bombogenesis at 67 longitude! Well the last couple of Ninas have argued for a more nw solution. If anything, Ninas tend to favor more nw tracks because the se ridge is enhanced. However, we have no se ridge right now and the monster block would probably(not all the time) prevent most storms from cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It's almost like the same thing happens at 192 hours. If you remove that slop at 500mb around the NYC area...the shortwave over the Ohio valley has a better chance of turning the corner a bit sooner. At least it looks Miller B-ish. We gotta get some snow for you since you're back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 At least it looks Miller B-ish. We gotta get some snow for you since you're back here. agreed...I hope it waits until after I fly in on the 11th to get snowy. My parents moved to West Seneca, NY this past year, so jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well the last couple of Ninas have argued for a more nw solution. If anything, Ninas tend to favor more nw tracks because the se ridge is enhanced. However, we have no se ridge right now and the monster block would probably(not all the time) prevent most storms from cutting west. Right, no se ridge but with the pacific jet juiced up by the GOA low,the momentum is pushing these amplifying shortwaves offshore a little to quickly. Get one of these SWs to amplify and round the corner a little sooner and we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like a potentially epic stretch of winter thrills is on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Just wow at how the blocking comes roaring back at the end of this run after a bit of relaxation! Anything trying to cut is just getting squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 agreed...I hope it waits until after I fly in on the 11th to get snowy. My parents moved to West Seneca, NY this past year, so jealous. You're moving 12/11? Your azz better not miss the storm from a delay getting here! Come early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 You're moving 12/11? Your azz better not miss the storm from a delay getting here! Come early. I can't unfortunately. I'm working on the night of the 9th..and my company already bought my ticket to Boston for the 11th. I'll be in early afternoon at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like a pretty strong low that passes just se of the BM and moves north on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like a pretty strong low that passes just se of the BM and moves north on the ensembles. Some great snow signals for next weekend and some more beyond. This upcoming 2 week period could be quite amazing as the gateway into deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The d10 storm is also there, but a little too far east verbatim. Still, not bad 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Just saw the day10 Euro. Fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Some great snow signals for next weekend and some more beyond. This upcoming 2 week period could be quite amazing as the gateway into deep winter. At least we have something within d7..lol. Hopefully the euro op looks better than previous runs. I do agree the signals are there. Looks like Ray is violently shoving coal into the miller b train to try and fire her up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 The d10 storm is also there, but a little too far east verbatim. Still, not bad 10 days out. Some isobars trending SW suggests to me that the mean is reflecting a few members with pretty big hits here that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It's the GFS at day 10...the cold bias is still there...but muted. You probably still want some suppression on the model at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Some isobars trending SW suggests to me that the mean is reflecting a few members with pretty big hits here that day. Yeah I bet some members will show that. There are likely at least a few that have a stronger shortwave than what the mean shows. The ensemble mean is also deeper with the trough for storm 1 which is probably why it shows a single low instead of an inv trough. I bet some members still have the inv trough signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 It's the GFS at day 10...the cold bias is still there...but muted. You probably still want some suppression on the model at that range. I think you're in an outstanding snow location for this winter. Is Amy having you up there to do the shoveling? Better be nice...you could get thrown out in the spring...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 The NAO on the ensembles is unflappable. I hope this holds end to end for that would be quite a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Is that -0.27 in degrees F? Or is it in C? or some statistics thing I forget... That doesn't seem too bad, but should be kept in mind as we go forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 Is that -0.27 in degrees F? Or is it in C? or some statistics thing I forget... That doesn't seem too bad, but should be kept in mind as we go forward I would think it's standard deviation....anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 It's the GFS at day 10...the cold bias is still there...but muted. You probably still want some suppression on the model at that range. We've had that for a year..lol, but I know what you mean. Hopefully the euro comes in with something other than a fropa. The euro ensembles even suggested development near the sne coast, but the whole euro suite in general was stronger with that shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Is that -0.27 in degrees F? Or is it in C? or some statistics thing I forget... That doesn't seem too bad, but should be kept in mind as we go forward I think it's temp in degree C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I would think it's standard deviation....anyone know? The units would be degrees Celsius...but I'm not sure exactly how it's formulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 We've had that for a year..lol, but I know what you mean. Hopefully the euro comes in with something other than a fropa. The euro ensembles even suggested development near the sne coast, but the whole euro suite in general was stronger with that shortwave. With a more east based -NAO developing and the PAC becoming a bit more hostile, I think systems are more likely to trend north than the ridiculous conditions that existed last winter. It obviously doesn't mean they have to, but I'll take the odds on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Looks like a potentially epic stretch of winter thrills is on the way.... Going to be a very long week of model watching for most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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