Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[Tropopause_Fold]

robust -NAO on 12z ec ens. right out through day 10. curious what they show out through week 2.

couple shots of well below normal cold coming in the next week to 10 days it seems.

[CoastalWx]

robust -NAO on 12z ec ens. right out through day 10. curious what they show out through week 2.

couple shots of well below normal cold coming in the next week to 10 days it seems.

Heavy heavy -nao. A pretty darn robust signal being that far out.

[skierinvermont]

18z GFS going to be real interesting for ME/NH on monday with the second storm (or third technically), that is an impressive low 966mb

[Tropopause_Fold]

Heavy heavy -nao. A pretty darn robust signal being that far out.

it's remarkably persistent.

[WeatherX]

Rev Kev is going to love the Euro weeklies......looks the the -NAO shifts ever so slightly to the west each week....

[MaineJayhawk]

Heavy heavies on 12/12 says the 18z GFS. Make plans now ... wax your shovels, change the oil in the snowblowers, mount the blade on the truck. Get your emergency kits ready. Got batteries?

[Logan11]

The big JB theory this year is that the NAO blocking only shifts west to a point and then shifts back east and eventually realigns as a SW to NE ridge from the eastern US to northwest Europe (by Xmas or thereafter). At that point most of the east is cooked and maybe our only saving grace here is being far enough north at times to be on the north side of SW flow events. Of course I hope he busts totally on that....

Rev Kev is going to love the Euro weeklies......looks the the -NAO shifts ever so slightly to the west each week....

[ORH_wxman]

Its pretty amazing how all the ensemble means now agree on building up the Iceland/UK block then they all retrograde it back to Greenland by Dec 15th or so.

Just when it looked like they were trying to get rid of it, we see it come back.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Its pretty amazing how all the ensemble means now agree on building up the Iceland/UK block then they all retrograde it back to Greenland by Dec 15th or so.

Just when it looked like they were trying to get rid of it, we see it come back.

it's funny to loop a NH chart with just the 5h contours and watch the persistence of that region.

[nzucker]

Its pretty amazing how all the ensemble means now agree on building up the Iceland/UK block then they all retrograde it back to Greenland by Dec 15th or so.

Just when it looked like they were trying to get rid of it, we see it come back.

Models always try to break down the NAO, but it is not going anywhere.

The problem is that people in New England who want a slight SE ridge to get some gradient/SW flow events into the area aren't having any luck. The pattern looks very dry to start December with too much NW flow for any true threats.

[ORH_wxman]

Models always try to break down the NAO, but it is not going anywhere.

The problem is that people in New England who want a slight SE ridge to get some gradient/SW flow events into the area aren't having any luck. The pattern looks very dry to start December with too much NW flow for any true threats.

Its not a SW flow event pattern...the hope is a Miller B or clipper/redeveloper....or a retrograde storm. The PAC turns worse in the longer range but the NAO stays put, so that will probably give more threats of every kind.

[nzucker]

Its not a SW flow event pattern...the hope is a Miller B or clipper/redeveloper....or a retrograde storm. The PAC turns worse in the longer range but the NAO stays put, so that will probably give more threats of every kind.

It looks like the main Miller B threat was the 12/5 storm and we know that's a fail now with the ULL hanging tough over Maine. The storm might retrograde enough to hit Maine and northern NH but looks like mixed precipitation and nothing particularly impressive in terms of snowfall.

And now the 12/8 threat has vanished from the models seemingly. Just more cold/dry. There needs to be a major threat on the table soon or people are going to flip.

[ORH_wxman]

It looks like the main Miller B threat was the 12/5 storm and we know that's a fail now with the ULL hanging tough over Maine. The storm might retrograde enough to hit Maine and northern NH but looks like mixed precipitation and nothing particularly impressive in terms of snowfall.

And now the 12/8 threat has vanished from the models seemingly. Just more cold/dry. There needs to be a major threat on the table soon or people are going to flip.

I'm really not that worried about the pattern. It actually looks okay for quite awhile. Longer than I would have thought initially.

If anyone flips before mid/late December, then they have serious problems. Ironically, if the block was stronger like Feb '69, then this system would retrograde right into eastern New England instead of further north into N Maine...so we should have hoped for a stronger block.

The NAO gets shunted east where it builds a huge UK/Iceland block and then slowly but surely retrogrades back west again....all while the PAC starts becoming more unfavorable. That should continue to give threats. We might set up more of a gradient though as the PAC worsens...but it remains to be seen exactly how the orientation of the cold delivery occurs from Canada in that setup. A few tweaks can make a big difference.

[skierinvermont]

I'm really not that worried about the pattern. It actually looks okay for quite awhile. Longer than I would have thought initially.

If anyone flips before mid/late December, then they have serious problems. Ironically, if the block was stronger like Feb '69, then this system would retrograde right into eastern New England instead of further north into N Maine...so we should have hoped for a stronger block.

The NAO gets shunted east where it builds a huge UK/Iceland block and then slowly but surely retrogrades back west again....all while the PAC starts becoming more unfavorable. That should continue to give threats. We might set up more of a gradient though as the PAC worsens...but it remains to be seen exactly how the orientation of the cold delivery occurs from Canada in that setup. A few tweaks can make a big difference.

I went into the season telling myself not to expect anything before Christmas.. anything before then was gravy. But the pattern and threats got my hopes up. It would be a waste of a pretty nice pattern to not get something before the 15th.. I will just have to go back to reminding myself I have 3+ months to go.

[ORH_wxman]

I went into the season telling myself not to expect anything before Christmas.. anything before then was gravy. But the pattern and threats got my hopes up. It would be a waste of a pretty nice pattern to not get something before the 15th..

I would agree it would be disappointing not to capitalize on this pattern before the 15th....but sometimes you can't always win. We get snow in bad patterns sometimes and sometimes we get left hung out to dry in decent patterns.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if we don't get at least a modest event during all this.

[OKpowdah]

I went into the season telling myself not to expect anything before Christmas.. anything before then was gravy. But the pattern and threats got my hopes up. It would be a waste of a pretty nice pattern to not get something before the 15th..

I don't expect anything before Dec 1st, but in a Nina year, our winter IS before Christmas. If you don't expect anything before Christmas, then boy you better count on March to deliver big.

[nzucker]

I went into the season telling myself not to expect anything before Christmas.. anything before then was gravy. But the pattern and threats got my hopes up. It would be a waste of a pretty nice pattern to not get something before the 15th..

Yeah I mean down by NYC we really can't expect snow till around Christmas time. 12/19 has been the date for serious threats the past couple of years, had 8" on both 12/19/09 and 12/19/08. The problem usually though is that it's just not consistently cold enough until then. This time, it's actually too cold and dry with the strong NW flow to get a system. I think a lot of people will be disappointed if we don't cash in by the holidays, but that's more a product of how good December has been to us recently compared to historical climo.

I also think New England will, paradoxically, do better later in the winter as the pattern weakens a bit and we start to see the typical SW flow events...now everything is too blocked up, looks like last year.

[skierinvermont]

I don't expect anything before Dec 1st, but in a Nina year, our winter IS before Christmas. If you don't expect anything before Christmas, then boy you better count on March to deliver big.

Well I live on the coast in SE CT.. I can't remember getting much snow before Christmas except 12/19. I'm sure it's getting pretty favorable before then especially in a Nina, I was referring more to when I would start getting annoyed.

[OKpowdah]

I would agree it would be disappointing not to capitalize on this pattern before the 15th....but sometimes you can't always win. We get snow in bad patterns sometimes and sometimes we get left hung out to dry in decent patterns.

That said, I'd be pretty surprised if we don't get at least a modest event during all this.

loads of potential through the next two weeks. I don't see this being an incredibly snowy period or anything but something will come through for someone here. That much I feel confident about

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I mean down by NYC we really can't expect snow till around Christmas time. 12/19 has been the date for serious threats the past couple of years, had 8" on both 12/19/09 and 12/19/08. The problem usually though is that it's just not consistently cold enough until then. This time, it's actually too cold and dry with the strong NW flow to get a system. I think a lot of people will be disappointed if we don't cash in by the holidays, but that's more a product of how good December has been to us recently compared to historical climo.

I also think New England will, paradoxically, do better later in the winter as the pattern weakens a bit and we start to see the typical SW flow events...now everything is too blocked up, looks like last year.

Last year was certainly an epic choreography of screw jobs....but the idea of a big -NAO being bad for New England is a bit of a myth. I think people are getting way too obsessed with last year's pattern and automatically applying baseline statements because of it.

The STJ is basically dead this winter...so you'll see more northern stream dominance which will promote more Miller B type systems and clipper/redevelopers. Previous monster -NAO winters have almost all been very kind to NE.

[OKpowdah]

Well I live on the coast in SE CT.. I can't remember getting much snow before Christmas except 12/19. I'm sure it's getting pretty favorable before then especially in a Nina, I was referring more to when I would start getting annoyed.

ah gotcha. Yeah I maybe could last until Christmas in SE coastal CT, but being in interior New England, I will be pretty disappointed if I don't see at least 12" cumulative before Christmas, considering the uncertainty of the rest of the winter

[nzucker]

I don't expect anything before Dec 1st, but in a Nina year, our winter IS before Christmas. If you don't expect anything before Christmas, then boy you better count on March to deliver big.

Meh I don't agree with this December being the only good month in a Niña stereotype. 08-09 was a Niña and most of the big snows and cold were in January at Middlebury. 07-08 had a huge February storm that I picked up 10" in Poughkeepsie from. 99-00 had the only big I-95 storm in January. 70-71, the famous New England La Niña winter had snow and cold throughout. 66-67 was a February/March winter, very famous near NYC in a weak Niña.

I just don't think we really have a big enough sample size to conclude December is better in a La Niña. This is just a product of a few people remembering a few storms that produced in their backyard, not a reality of long term climo; I'm sure if you looked over 100 years, it wouldn't matter much. December does seem often to be the coldest month but that's not necessarily good for NNE especially where you are. You should actually do better later this winter when the pattern isn't teeth-chatteringly cold but just cold enough for SW flow to be snow.

Not sure why you are shocked about this. Saying winter in a Niña is before Christmas is basically idiotic dude...not exactly what I'd expect from a "pro forecaster."

[skierinvermont]

Meh I don't agree with this December being the only good month in a Niña stereotype. 08-09 was a Niña and most of the big snows and cold were in January at Middlebury. 07-08 had a huge February storm that I picked up 10" in Poughkeepsie from. 99-00 had the only big I-95 storm in January. 70-71, the famous New England La Niña winter had snow and cold throughout. 66-67 was a February/March winter, very famous near NYC in a weak Niña.

I just don't think we really have a big enough sample size to conclude December is better in a La Niña. This is just a product of a few people remembering a few storms that produced in their backyard, not a reality of long term climo; I'm sure if you looked over 100 years, it wouldn't matter much. December does seem often to be the coldest month but that's not necessarily good for NNE especially where you are. You should actually do better later this winter when the pattern isn't teeth-chatteringly cold but just cold enough for SW flow to be snow.

Not sure why you are shocked about this. Saying winter in a Niña is before Christmas is basically idiotic dude...not exactly what I'd expect from a "pro forecaster."

ouch.. kinda harsh?

The sample size is certainly large enough to say December is colder in Ninas. It may even be large enough to say December is snowier in Ninas than Ninos.. not sure about that one. I know usetobe made a comment the other day saying that snowfall is really not that scewed to December in Ninas, unlike temps. Probably a function of December being warmer and less snowy than J and F regardless of ENSO. Dec in Ninas are definitely colder and snowier than Ninos.. I know the difference for temps is statistically significant, and it may or may not be for snowfall.

[ORH_wxman]

Meh I don't agree with this December being the only good month in a Niña stereotype. 08-09 was a Niña and most of the big snows and cold were in January at Middlebury. 07-08 had a huge February storm that I picked up 10" in Poughkeepsie from. 99-00 had the only big I-95 storm in January. 70-71, the famous New England La Niña winter had snow and cold throughout. 66-67 was a February/March winter, very famous near NYC in a weak Niña.

I just don't think we really have a big enough sample size to conclude December is better in a La Niña. This is just a product of a few people remembering a few storms that produced in their backyard, not a reality of long term climo; I'm sure if you looked over 100 years, it wouldn't matter much. December does seem often to be the coldest month but that's not necessarily good for NNE especially where you are. You should actually do better later this winter when the pattern isn't teeth-chatteringly cold but just cold enough for SW flow to be snow.

Not sure why you are shocked about this. Saying winter in a Niña is before Christmas is basically idiotic dude...not exactly what I'd expect from a "pro forecaster."

December La Nina climo is coldest and snowiest relative to average here.

It doesn't have to work all the time...and certainly doesn't, but there are stats to back up the idea.

[nzucker]

ouch.. kinda harsh?

The sample size is certainly large enough to say December is colder in Ninas. It may even be large enough to say December is snower in Ninas than Ninos.. not sure about that one. I know usetobe made a comment the other day saying that snowfall is really not that scewed to December in Ninas, unlike temps.

First of all, a cold early December isn't even that cold compared to an average January. Middlebury's average high is 38F the first week of December and 27F in mid-January, so a January day that's +10F is still colder than an average day in early December. And cold doesn't matter that much in NNE anyway. It's all about getting lots of storminess which tends not to happen when you have a way below average temperature regime with a cold ULL sitting on top of you as we have now.

Most of winter doesn't happen before Christmas in the Northeast. I expect maybe one minor snow before Christmas at my home near NYC, and even Middlebury often has bare ground in early December before getting a major event like around the 10-15th. Our winter is really back-weighted actually, not front weighted. In my opinion, it's much easier to have wintry weather in early March than early December.

[OKpowdah]

Meh I don't agree with this December being the only good month in a Niña stereotype. 08-09 was a Niña and most of the big snows and cold were in January at Middlebury. 07-08 had a huge February storm that I picked up 10" in Poughkeepsie from. 99-00 had the only big I-95 storm in January. 70-71, the famous New England La Niña winter had snow and cold throughout. 66-67 was a February/March winter, very famous near NYC in a weak Niña.

I just don't think we really have a big enough sample size to conclude December is better in a La Niña. This is just a product of a few people remembering a few storms that produced in their backyard, not a reality of long term climo; I'm sure if you looked over 100 years, it wouldn't matter much. December does seem often to be the coldest month but that's not necessarily good for NNE especially where you are. You should actually do better later this winter when the pattern isn't teeth-chatteringly cold but just cold enough for SW flow to be snow.

Not sure why you are shocked about this. Saying winter in a Niña is before Christmas is basically idiotic dude...not exactly what I'd expect from a "pro forecaster."

There's a large enough sample size I think to conclude that the strength of the SE ridge is on average weaker in December versus the rest of the winter. Proportionate to the normal distribution of snowfall through the season, I feel *less comfortable* with respect to total seasonal snowfall if December is below normal. I feel *less comfortable* relying more heavily on January and February. Obviously, the "winter IS before Christmas" statement was an exaggeration simply used to be a play on words from the previous post.

[nzucker]

December La Nina climo is coldest and snowiest relative to average here.

It doesn't have to work all the time...and certainly doesn't, but there are stats to back up the idea.

This doesn't equate to "our winter is before Christmas" in a La Niña. Sure, relative to average, but January and February are the heart of winter.

Also, I really don't think the sample size is that convincing. We've had like 4 strong La Niñas in the last 50 years.

[ORH_wxman]

First of all, a cold early December isn't even that cold compared to an average January. Middlebury's average high is 38F the first week of December and 27F in mid-January, so a January day that's +10F is still colder than an average day in early December. And cold doesn't matter that much in NNE anyway. It's all about getting lots of storminess which tends not to happen when you have a way below average temperature regime with a cold ULL sitting on top of you as we have now.

Most of winter doesn't happen before Christmas in the Northeast. I expect maybe one minor snow before Christmas at my home near NYC, and even Middlebury often has bare ground in early December before getting a major event like around the 10-15th. Our winter is really back-weighted actually, not front weighted. In my opinion, it's much easier to have wintry weather in early March than early December.

I agree that you don't just forget about the rest of winter if December sucks....but I ran some numbers when December sucked in Mod/strong Ninas and they are not pretty. You really want a strong December in this setup.

The exception to the rule however was Dec 1955....it was cold but pretty awful for snow, but later on it produced. But the rest were horrible if December was bad.

[skierinvermont]

First of all, a cold early December isn't even that cold compared to an average January. Middlebury's average high is 38F the first week of December and 27F in mid-January, so a January day that's +10F is still colder than an average day in early December. And cold doesn't matter that much in NNE anyway. It's all about getting lots of storminess which tends not to happen when you have a way below average temperature regime with a cold ULL sitting on top of you as we have now.

Most of winter doesn't happen before Christmas in the Northeast. I expect maybe one minor snow before Christmas at my home near NYC, and even Middlebury often has bare ground in early December before getting a major event like around the 10-15th. Our winter is really back-weighted actually, not front weighted. In my opinion, it's much easier to have wintry weather in early March than early December.

Right, that was my point.

Also I'm pretty sure he was exaggerating

[nzucker]

There's a large enough sample size I think to conclude that the strength of the SE ridge is on average weaker in December versus the rest of the winter. Proportionate to the normal distribution of snowfall through the season, I feel *less comfortable* with respect to total seasonal snowfall if December is below normal. I feel *less comfortable* relying more heavily on January and February. Obviously, the "winter IS before Christmas" statement was an exaggeration simply used to be a play on words from the previous post.

Yes, but you want the SE ridge to be strong so you can get SW flow/gradient events. Not mega strong like 98-99 but definitely present. Just look at 07-08. You do best when you don't have this ultra-suppressive cold pattern that we're getting now. This doesn't look like a great pattern to me for NNE that's coming up, except perhaps the upslope areas. Sort of dry and just flurrying off and on.

I just think people often exaggerate how "wintry" December is supposed to be. It's generally a benign month, especially in the first week or two. We're just getting going by Christmas. Also SSTs are still in the 50s by where skier lives so that's a factor that you have to take into account for coastal locations. I've lived in the NYC suburbs all my life and I know we're almost always bare ground in early December, but typically pretty snowy in February and early March. Last winter was a "good" December and I had around 13" of snow in the NYC metro area...February was nearly 50". Obviously a crazy anomaly but we just don't get the big ones on the coast in early December. 12/19 is around the cut-off I've found.