Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[dryslot]

Just got off the phone with a work friend from SF who had meetings here Mon/Tues. He's flying in tomorrow and visiting a friend near Augusta,ME. I told him he may see snow by the time he leaves Tuesday evening.

You are probably right flurries for now.......

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, if we do see something try and rotate under this block, there's a good chance we won't see it until its much closer in. I have much less faith in Dec 5th now that modeling is coming to a better consensus for a strong vortex over us initially...though even that really isn't set in stone IMHO until another 24-36 hours.

Yea, I've been down on 12\5 for a couple of days now.

[skierinvermont]

Will, What's your take on the 12/8,9 storm? Watch and Wait? Or, What do we need to see happen for the storm to happen?

I'd be interested to see what Will says too but I think we need these things for the 12/8-9 storm specifically, although there is potential for a storm after that as well:

1. We need the AK 5h low to be farther west so that the ridge axis ahead of it is farther west. Few EC storms happen with a 504dm low just off the BC coast prior to the event.

2. We probably need to phase in the southern stream s/w with the polar jet, which means slowing the PJ s/w down and speeding the southern s/w up. Although we could probably get a storm out of the polar jet s/w alone if it was strong enough.

3. It would help if the PJ s/w was stronger and amplified the pattern more.

4. It would help if the blocking would relax a little compared to what is modeled (or as Will said retrograded enough to phase into the storm).

A lot of possibilities at this point. The large scale features that argue against it are the blocking being too strong and the Canadian ridge axis being too far east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My guess is that we won't see a big dog out of this set up, but we'll manage at least one mod event.

This is what I have expected for Dec all along....no shortage of cold, but no shortage of unrealized potential, either.

Not a terrible month, though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yea, I've been down on 12\5 for a couple of days now.

I think Kevin still has 3-6" locked in for everyone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think Kevin still has 3-6" locked in for everyone.

Still could, but its looking less likely.

[ORH_wxman]

The 12/8-9 storm is so far out that its impossible to really speculate what we might need to have happen. There's a good chance the 120 hour prog will look different come verification time...and the next threat is a solid 90-100 hours beyond that.

Ideally we'd have the blocking vortex lift a bit northeast to reduce confluence a bit OR retrograde back far enough west or southwest to phase with any shortwave coming out of the lower plains.

[Alpha5]

The 12/8-9 storm is so far out that its impossible to really speculate what we might need to have happen. There's a good chance the 120 hour prog will look different come verification time...and the next threat is a solid 90-100 hours beyond that.

Ideally we'd have the blocking vortex lift a bit northeast to reduce confluence a bit OR retrograde back far enough west or southwest to phase with any shortwave coming out of the lower plains.

weenie wet dream

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 12/8-9 storm is so far out that its impossible to really speculate what we might need to have happen. There's a good chance the 120 hour prog will look different come verification time...and the next threat is a solid 90-100 hours beyond that.

Ideally we'd have the blocking vortex lift a bit northeast to reduce confluence a bit OR retrograde back far enough west or southwest to phase with any shortwave coming out of the lower plains.

I'm gonna try and take more of the Kev approach this year and appreciate the smaller events; accept the failures and enjoy the successes because they are both going to occur.....it will all event out eventually and when it does, the aggregate will constitute life in sne as a wx enthusiast.

[CoastalWx]

It's all about the block. It doesn't really matter which s/w slows or speeds up...if the block is sitting overhead, that will govern the weather. It's likely not going to want to leave in a hurry, so we either hope it wobbles west and lets a s.w amplify and produce a Miller A type deal, or perhaps it does what Will says and phases with some s/w coming out of the southern Plains.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'd be interested to see what Will says too but I think we need these things for the 12/8-9 storm specifically:

1. We need the AK 5h low to be farther west so that the ridge axis ahead of it is farther west. Few EC storms happen with a 504dm low just off the BC coast prior to the event.

2. We probably need to phase in the southern stream s/w with the polar jet, which means slowing the PJ s/w down and speeding the southern s/w up. Although we could probably get a storm out of the polar jet s/w alone if it was strong enough.

3. It would help if the PJ s/w was stronger and amplified the pattern more.

4. It would help if the blocking would relax a little compared to what is modeled.

You put this out exactly as I would. Thought I'd throw out a couple maps to show the 2 pieces of energy on the 18z GFS that I believe will spawn the coastal and to illustrate your points.

84h

150h

[CT Rain]

Yeah, if we do see something try and rotate under this block, there's a good chance we won't see it until its much closer in. I have much less faith in Dec 5th now that modeling is coming to a better consensus for a strong vortex over us initially...though even that really isn't set in stone IMHO until another 24-36 hours.

Yeah I agree... I think 12/5 is slipping away from us. Oh well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's all about the block. It doesn't really matter which s/w slows or speeds up...if the block is sitting overhead, that will govern the weather. It's likely not going to want to leave in a hurry, so we either hope it wobbles west and lets a s.w amplify and produce a Miller A type deal, or perhaps it does what Will says and phases with some s/w coming out of the southern Plains.

That is what I Would like to see....retrograding PVs coupling with potent SWs is what dreams are made of.....March 2001 was of that variety I believe.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think Kevin still has 3-6" locked in for everyone.

Still very much on the table..Don't be at all surprised when it shows back up on the models come Thursday.maybe even 00z tomorrow nite

[Ginx snewx]

Don't sweat it yet; this pattern is so volatile that the ultimate outcome will not be consistently modeled remotely correctly until about 48-72 hrs out.

This has all the appeal of.....windy, cold, dry, cold, windy cold......BOOM; you have 48 hrs to prepare.

Could the culmination of all of this be P Cloudy and 29*, amid tauntingly trival, wind blown flurries.....sure, but we won't know whether or not that will be the case for days to come.

Wow violently agree

[skierinvermont]

It's all about the block. It doesn't really matter which s/w slows or speeds up...if the block is sitting overhead, that will govern the weather. It's likely not going to want to leave in a hurry, so we either hope it wobbles west and lets a s.w amplify and produce a Miller A type deal, or perhaps it does what Will says and phases with some s/w coming out of the southern Plains.

Well if the polar jet phases with the southern s/w it helps to amplify the pattern.. you see this on the ggem, even though the blocking is strong to begin with the polar jet and the southern s/w phase really amplifies. But yeah there is a lot of uncertainty regarding individual s/w.. the major features that are important are the position/strength of the blocking and the western ridge.

[CoastalWx]

That is what I Would like to see....retrograding PVs coupling with potent SWs is what dreams are made of.....March 2001 was of that variety I believe.

Yeah, I'm nervous with those because they can turn into screwjobs...but I'm not going to get ahead of myself. The Canadian more or less was showing that. It phased those two pieces of energy that Bob noted.

[Ginx snewx]

Massive -AO as that ridge over Kamchatka amplifies towards the NP. Very cold pattern for most of N America and potentially stormy too. Liking the potential for the next few weeks even if this one doesn't work out.

Wow violently agree.

[skierinvermont]

You put this out exactly as I would. Thought I'd throw out a couple maps to show the 2 pieces of energy on the 18z GFS that I believe will spawn the coastal and to illustrate your points.

84h

150h

Nice maps.. Thanks!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still very much on the table..Don't be at all surprised when it shows back up on the models come Thursday.maybe even 00z tomorrow nite

This is def. the type of pattern in which to have a heightened awareness of such an outcome.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Still very much on the table..Don't be at all surprised when it shows back up on the models come Thursday.maybe even 00z tomorrow nite

I seriously hope your right but odds are like 90/10 against it.

[ORH_wxman]

It's all about the block. It doesn't really matter which s/w slows or speeds up...if the block is sitting overhead, that will govern the weather. It's likely not going to want to leave in a hurry, so we either hope it wobbles west and lets a s.w amplify and produce a Miller A type deal, or perhaps it does what Will says and phases with some s/w coming out of the southern Plains.

Yeah its totally controlling our pattern for the next week to ten days. Still a ton of things that can happen though in this pattern. Retrograding can always cause some weirdo solutions that aren't handled well more than a couple days out.

[CoastalWx]

Well if the polar jet phases with the southern s/w it helps to amplify the pattern.. you see this on the ggem, even though the blocking is strong to begin with the polar jet and the southern s/w phase really amplifies. But yeah there is a lot of uncertainty regarding individual s/w.. the major features that are important are the position/strength of the blocking and the western ridge.

Yeah that's what I alluded to at the end. Let a vortmax role west and then south. It would make for fun times for many!

[CoastalWx]

Yeah its totally controlling our pattern for the next week to ten days. Still a ton of things that can happen though in this pattern. Retrograding can always cause some weirdo solutions that aren't handled well more than a couple days out.

It looks to cause some grey hairs, but I'm not down on this pattern at all. It only takes a little wobble here or there as you well know.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm gonna try and take more of the Kev approach this year and appreciate the smaller events; accept the failures and enjoy the successes because they are both going to occur.....it will all event out eventually and when it does, the aggregate will constitute life in sne as a wx enthusiast.

Did someone steal your ID, totally impressed.

[Damage In Tolland]

I seriously hope your right but odds are like 90/10 against it.

LOL..where did you get those odds from? I'd say 60/40 in favor of it

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL..where did you get those odds from? I'd say 60/40 in favor of it

My weenie.

[Damage In Tolland]

Who is Nickotitsyn?

[CoastalWx]

That is what I Would like to see....retrograding PVs coupling with potent SWs is what dreams are made of.....March 2001 was of that variety I believe.

20" of mash potato snow. The kind that piles 20" on the railings of a deck without falling.

[CoastalWx]

My weenie.