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Paid the tolls...moving into winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah, and thought about mentioning that this morning about 00z ECM, but fearing being redundant where others had already noted ... the 120-144 hour showed eastern zones and eastern LI too being hit with an 8 hour snow and wind - The 12z was there ...maybe just ever so slightly more east, but at this time range still within wobble room.

I am interested in these NAM amplitudes beyond 60 hours I admit. Whenever I see a v-max intensifying as it is move down in latitude that usually means there is a pretty good vertical integration of momentum associated with the S/W. Sure enough ... the NAM depicts this with a powerful jet max at 300mb diving into the backside of 500mb exit region - that means that the S/W is energizing on this run as it comes east, not dissolving like the GFS. The GFS may be correct relative to its self because it comparatively substantially weaker with the vertical depth of the S/W mechanics.

I can think of at least one system that had this that the NAM crank a coup over the Globals with, that produced a tropospheric fold and an the isentropic wind burster on the Cape while Boston and the 'burbs had CG

Yep, Dec 9, 2005.

You might recall last winter (before it turned to hell), the first decent event of the season on December 5th...it scored the coup with its 72-84 hour depictions. All globals were well SE and the NAM brought a swath of snow from DC to BOS...it was a bit wet so the cities didn't see much as it had trouble sticking, but all the western burbs had a moderate 3-5" with some 6" lollis. I remember we discussed briefly on the phone when the NAM had its solution around 3 days out and was by itself.

Sometimes it can score the coup...the trick is obviously trying to figure out when that is vs just ignoring it as garbage.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yep, Dec 9, 2005.

You might recall last winter (before it turned to hell), the first decent event of the season on December 5th...it scored the coup with its 72-84 hour depictions. All globals were well SE and the NAM brought a swath of snow from DC to BOS...it was a bit wet so the cities didn't see much as it had trouble sticking, but all the western burbs had a moderate 3-5" with some 6" lollis. I remember we discussed briefly on the phone when the NAM had its solution around 3 days out and was by itself.

Sometimes it can score the coup...the trick is obviously trying to figure out when that is vs just ignoring it as garbage.

:lol: What is it about these December bombs that the NAM owns - wow. Yeah, really though...the NAM may be onto something here - it has more sigma levels and may be detecting more jet strength than the GFS at initializations.

Part of the problem here is also that there is a speghetti logic trough out there in the east Pac close to the West Coast - what is actually going here is that breaks down and what is left of it is injected over the Rockies ...low/moderate amplitude ridge. This all takes place IN the NAM domain; I am always more suspect of the NAM when it does a stem-winder with a relayed system. But when the NAM start being consistent with a depiction when handling a system already in its domain - eh, that may be at least one red flag for another rare coup. We'll see...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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NAM also was one of the ones showing snow for DC/BWI on the north trend storm last year although it was waffling on it. It seems like it catches onto s/w that are stronger than progged better than some of the other models.

If the shortwave is tight and compact, it might be when it does better. I know the the 12/9/05 s/w was very intense but also quite compact...especially by the time it neared the coastline. Its higher resolution can come in handy there when the whole system is covering smaller grid space.

IIRC, the vortmax at the base of the trough on 12/5/09 formed out of something fairly insignificant and became quite compact as it went along the E side of the trough...one of the reasons maybe it scored a coup there.

There could be other reasons too but I'm just speculating.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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:rolleyes:

Maybe we should go back to the 2000 post threads that combined weather analysis with how many spiders wiz saw today in his room. I hate to see people keep on harping over the fact that we are actually trying to organize the board a little more...nobody is forcing anyone to post here.

Not my point about moderation, too many sub sub forum threads hard to keep a discussion going, but to be honest I love super threads and you know how I feel about it.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Yeah, and thought about mentioning that this morning about 00z ECM, but fearing being redundant where others had already noted ... the 120-144 hour showed eastern zones and eastern LI too being hit with an 8 hour snow and wind - The 12z was there ...maybe just ever so slightly more east, but at this time range still within wobble room.

I am interested in these NAM amplitudes beyond 60 hours I admit. Whenever I see a v-max intensifying as it moves down in latitude that usually means there is a pretty good vertical integration of momentum associated with the S/W. Sure enough ... the NAM depicts this with a powerful jet max at 300mb diving into the backside of 500mb exit region - that means that the S/W is energizing on this run as it comes east, not dissolving like the GFS. The GFS may be correct relative to its self because it comparatively substantially weaker with the vertical depth of the S/W mechanics, but the worry there is it is missing this because of its inferior sigma levels

I can think of at least one system that had this that the NAM crank a coup over the Globals with, that produced a tropospheric fold and an the isentropic wind burster on the Cape while Boston and the 'burbs had CG

Thank you for verifying what I tried to portray earlier. Anyone writing this off completely should maybe check that.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Did you see the Euro maps I posted, all three of them have that jet streak, just saying , check out how Jets evolve when closed lows pop up.

I'm anxious for tonight's 00z runs. The s/w in question out west will be coming close to the CA coast so we should finally start to see the model spread diminish and any trend take hold.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm anxious for tonight's 00z runs. The s/w in question out west will be coming close to the CA coast so we should finally start to see the model spread diminish and any trend take hold.

Watch it come in as a complete pig - in the face all this consternation it would be almost funny if the locals wound up with a blizzard watch sometime over the weekend

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Watch it come in as a complete pig - in the face all this consternation it would be almost funny if the locals wound up with a blizzard watch sometime over the weekend

really only one way for this to trend, the sw has been portrayed about as awful as it could be, any trend should be somebodys east coast friend. still think that vort is a little further north, its early in the season, let it snow.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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really only one way for this to trend, the sw has been portrayed about as awful as it could be, any trend should be somebodys east coast friend. still think that vort is a little further north, its early in the season, let it snow.

Nah, it could trend weaker... gosh forbid, but it could. It's a matter of what is really sampled in the soundings.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
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Nah, it could trend weaker... gosh forbid, but it could. It's a matter of what is really sampled in the soundings.

valid point

with all that aside

this is only my second year on hear and i respect your posts and look forward to reading them (esp. last year) but it seems the joy and optomism is mostly gone. mosty joking but i recall reading several of your posts this year and it seems you have used your gift of analyzation and turned it toward the dark side of how this or that could possibly miss us in the worst possible way . like you were scorned and resent mother nature for last years torture

p.s any shot the SE extent of the s/w moving thru pittsburgh fires up some sn- over western areas late late tonite.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I'm anxious for tonight's 00z runs. The s/w in question out west will be coming close to the CA coast so we should finally start to see the model spread diminish and any trend take hold.

this is one of these funny rules of thumb that we always apply to things but i'm not sure how based in reality it really is. to some degree i'm sure there's some truth to it, but a lot of it also has to do with time - i.e. it is just closer to T=0. i know data sampling over the oceans is questioned and obviously there is some strength to true raobs vs. satellite measurements and aircraft relayed data, but it can't be that bad. if it were, the globals would be all f-ed up all the time.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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this is one of these funny rules of thumb that we always apply to things but i'm not sure how based in reality it really is. to some degree i'm sure there's some truth to it, but a lot of it also has to do with time - i.e. it is just closer to T=0. i know data sampling over the oceans is questioned and obviously there is some strength to true raobs vs. satellite measurements and aircraft relayed data, but it can't be that bad. if it were, the globals would be all f-ed up all the time.

of course, it depends on what model is being talked about.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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this is one of these funny rules of thumb that we always apply to things but i'm not sure how based in reality it really is. to some degree i'm sure there's some truth to it, but a lot of it also has to do with time - i.e. it is just closer to T=0. i know data sampling over the oceans is questioned and obviously there is some strength to true raobs vs. satellite measurements and aircraft relayed data, but it can't be that bad. if it were, the globals would be all f-ed up all the time.

Wes had a great thread on Eastern last year devoted to the fallacy. Urban myth .

Man the whiteboard that used to be Eastern really robbed us of some excellent tutorials from the best.

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