Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[CT Rain]

That's why we have you under cover....I mean nevermind.

lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Who would not be, Everyone wants snow, Its just a fact, If we did not there would not be much reason to live up here in the winter, I would move south or sw...........

Right, I'm not gonna lie out of my a** and deny being jealous of those who have more elevation than I......they have an advg.

[ORH_wxman]

A thread like this which is fairly broad in scope is probably ok with a bit of banter and more generic discussion about temps and stuff. Once a true threat emerges (like Dec 5/6 maybe) then we'll start a more specific thread. Going to be hard to get a real feel for it until we get a solid threat.

Yeah...I haven't been very strict deleting stuff in this thread because its a bit generalized with the threats and cold shots....but you are right, I think we will see the format bear a l;ot more fruit once we get into high risk individual storm threats.

[CT Rain]

Yeah...I haven't been very strict deleting stuff in this thread because its a bit generalized with the threats and cold shots....but you are right, I think we will see the format bear a l;ot more fruit once we get into high risk individual storm threats.

Yeah it will come together... I'm not worried about it.

[dryslot]

Right, I'm not gonna lie out of my a** and deny being jealous of those who have more elevation than I......they have an advg.

Yes, And if i wanted more elevation, I could to move to a location here in NW ME, But i have the best of all worlds being here, Near the lakes, Near the ocean and near the mtns, And near you guys.............lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah...I haven't been very strict deleting stuff in this thread because its a bit generalized with the threats and cold shots....but you are right, I think we will see the format bear a l;ot more fruit once we get into high risk individual storm threats.

I for one prefer this format. My little brain likes the organization of it and if I want to read about models I come here, obs in another, etc.

Just my 2 cents. Moderating has been excelllent. Will, are you doing a radio show Thurs night?

[OKpowdah]

"Lamenting the failed Columbus Day snow potental".

that's a 40-pager right there

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah...I haven't been very strict deleting stuff in this thread because its a bit generalized with the threats and cold shots....but you are right, I think we will see the format bear a l;ot more fruit once we get into high risk individual storm threats.

I've been waiting for the word "go" . I thought this was a test run. Guess not.

[OKpowdah]

The title of this thread should be "Paid the trolls...moving into winter"

[ORH_wxman]

I for one prefer this format. My little brain likes the organization of it and if I want to read about models I come here, obs in another, etc.

Just my 2 cents. Moderating has been excelllent. Will, are you doing a radio show Thurs night?

If this "threat" warrants it, I will be on tomorrow night. But it might just be a DC/MD/VA clipper threat if we don't trend this thing a little more...in that case, I'll have nothing to talk about for our region.

[HoarfrostHubb]

How far out do NAM clown maps go?

Are we in range yet?

[earthlight]

[ORH_wxman]

About 3 or 4 of the 18z GFS ensemble members give a pretty solid event to E MA....well 2 of them are like 1-4" but 2 others are big hits...probably warning criteria snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm wondering if anyone else noticed this about the GFS's 18z run. First it takes this 72hr OV disturbance and does a kind of Miller B to the waters just east of Cape Hatteras. Then, turns it N around 60/35, and as it comes north it bombs down to 970mb, at which point nearing 60/45 to goes NW and pummels Maine into eastern Ontario - that entire time the sun is shining over BOS

That is ...awesome. wow what a cosmic dildoing

[moneypitmike]

About 3 or 4 of the 18z GFS ensemble members give a pretty solid event to E MA....well 2 of them are like 1-4" but 2 others are big hits...probably warning criteria snow.

Let's get another miles, baby. Kev for the win?

41.8/39 (2.63" on the storm)

[ORH_wxman]

I'm wondering if anyone else noticed this about the GFS's 18z run. First it takes this 72hr OV disturbance and does a kind of Miller B to the waters just east of Cape Hatteras. Then, turns it N around 60/35, and as it comes north it bombs down to 970mb, at which point nearing 60/45 to goes NW and pummels Maine into eastern Ontario - that entire time the sun is shining over BOS

That is ...awesome. wow what a cosmic dildoing

John, I think the ensembles have been interesting. The EC ensembles came in line with the OP (a rarity, usually they are further SE or E/ENE in this case) and the GFS ensemble are a bit W or SW of the OP. Whether this translates into anything interesting in sensible wx remains to be seen, but it at least keeps this threat on the table rather than a 192 hour fantasy as when the Euro first hammered E MA/NH/ME with an all out blizzard a few days ago.

I think most would take 1-3"...while not exciting in a normal setting...it would have the novelty as the first widespread accumulating snow of the season.

[Bryan]

Temps continue to rise here, up to 51 from 48 a couple of hours ago

[TalcottWx]

At least that is clearly a consensus for snow here. I feel comfortable locking in at least accuming snowfall for Western Maine from what I have seen today with the ensembles here and the euro.

[ORH_wxman]

At least that is clearly a consensus for snow here. I feel comfortable locking in at least accuming snowfall for Western Maine from what I have seen today with the ensembles here and the euro.

Didn't you just say within the last 24 hours that we could rule out the Dec 5-6 threat?

[OKpowdah]

How far out do NAM clown maps go?

Are we in range yet?

[TalcottWx]

Didn't you just say within the last 24 hours that we could rule out the Dec 5-6 threat?

No, I said if the 0z euro last night did not show anything I think we could rule the storm out. I did make a comment earlier today that I didn't buy the retrograding solution, but that was just me not fully understanding the setup, which I do now.

[ORH_wxman]

No, I said if the 0z euro last night did not show anything I think we could rule the storm out. I did make a comment earlier today that I didn't buy the retrograding solution, but that was just me not fully understanding the setup, which I do now.

I was just busting chops. Mostly because I think its silly to rule anything out quite yet in this type of a complex setup.

I am not overly optimistic personally, but I remain tuned in to the threat.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm wondering if anyone else noticed this about the GFS's 18z run. First it takes this 72hr OV disturbance and does a kind of Miller B to the waters just east of Cape Hatteras. Then, turns it N around 60/35, and as it comes north it bombs down to 970mb, at which point nearing 60/45 to goes NW and pummels Maine into eastern Ontario - that entire time the sun is shining over BOS

That is ...awesome. wow what a cosmic dildoing

No one does an analysis like Tippy!!!

[TalcottWx]

I was just busting chops. Mostly because I think its silly to rule anything out quite yet in this type of a complex setup.

I am not overly optimistic personally, but I remain tuned in to the threat.

Got ya... I do feel like it is a long shot for E Ma to get a warning event tbh. If anything it seems like the majority of guidance has either retrograded it into maine or further north. I think the places that have the best chance for the snow in E Ma would be cape ann and close interior areas from there. It almost seems like a semi-lock that an area like Lewiston or Augusta in Central Maine stand a very good chance at getting a solid accuming snowfall. I might be on the very fringe of cashing in.

I am becoming more optimistic for Maine, but less for SNE.

[dryslot]

Got ya... I do feel like it is a long shot for E Ma to get a warning event tbh. If anything it seems like the majority of guidance has either retrograded it into maine or further north. I think the places that have the best chance for the snow in E Ma would be cape ann and close interior areas from there. It almost seems like a semi-lock that an area like Lewiston or Augusta in Central Maine stand a very good chance at getting a solid accuming snowfall. I might be on the very fringe of cashing in.

I am becoming more optimistic for Maine, but less for SNE.

If you were going to orono you would be getting smoked..........lol

[TalcottWx]

If you were going to orono you would be getting smoked..........lol

UMaine is coming here tomorrow to watch practice

[moneypitmike]

Got ya... I do feel like it is a long shot for E Ma to get a warning event tbh. If anything it seems like the majority of guidance has either retrograded it into maine or further north. I think the places that have the best chance for the snow in E Ma would be cape ann and close interior areas from there. It almost seems like a semi-lock that an area like Lewiston or Augusta in Central Maine stand a very good chance at getting a solid accuming snowfall. I might be on the very fringe of cashing in.

I am becoming more optimistic for Maine, but less for SNE.

Sine this thread includes "moving into winter" in its' title, I think it's fair game to announce that I am now at 39.9*. Based on the models, it might be a while before I see 40 again! Whoo hooo!

[NorEastermass128]

Well, if we cannot get it to snow here...maybe we should all head over to London and the UK. They've had a few good winters in a row up there. Mini ice age? I'm still waiting for my first flakes!

[skierinvermont]

18z UKIE is still a big bag of wtf

That's the thing with the Ukie, I know it's verification scores are high, and maybe it gets some threats. But sometimes it is just so god awful. I'm not saying that just because it doesn't give me snow, but I think we can be fairly confident there will be some kind of decent s/w but the Ukie has absolutely no sign of it. Every other model has a decent s/w moving through the U.S. D3 but the Ukie is like "huh?"

[Typhoon Tip]

John, I think the ensembles have been interesting. The EC ensembles came in line with the OP (a rarity, usually they are further SE or E/ENE in this case) and the GFS ensemble are a bit W or SW of the OP. Whether this translates into anything interesting in sensible wx remains to be seen, but it at least keeps this threat on the table rather than a 192 hour fantasy as when the Euro first hammered E MA/NH/ME with an all out blizzard a few days ago.

I think most would take 1-3"...while not exciting in a normal setting...it would have the novelty as the first widespread accumulating snow of the season.

Yeah, and thought about mentioning that this morning about 00z ECM, but fearing being redundant where others had already noted ... the 120-144 hour showed eastern zones and eastern LI too being hit with an 8 hour snow and wind - The 12z was there ...maybe just ever so slightly more east, but at this time range still within wobble room.

I am interested in these NAM amplitudes beyond 60 hours I admit. Whenever I see a v-max intensifying as it moves down in latitude that usually means there is a pretty good vertical integration of momentum associated with the S/W. Sure enough ... the NAM depicts this with a powerful jet max at 300mb diving into the backside of 500mb exit region - that means that the S/W is energizing on this run as it comes east, not dissolving like the GFS. The GFS may be correct relative to its self because it comparatively substantially weaker with the vertical depth of the S/W mechanics, but the worry there is it is missing this because of its inferior sigma levels

I can think of at least one system that had this that the NAM crank a coup over the Globals with, that produced a tropospheric fold and an the isentropic wind burster on the Cape while Boston and the 'burbs had CG