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Paid the tolls...moving into winter


weathafella

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.? Right exit region, front entrance region, that streak would wrap if taken out 24 more hours. I would think.

The upper levels are moving from NW to SE, exiting the SE coast at over 100kts on the prog. I have a hard time believing that would turn immediately north up the coast in later frames, no matter how optimistic you want to look at it.

But it is just the 18z NAM... haha

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.? Right exit region, front entrance region, that streak would wrap if taken out 24 more hours. I would think.

you want to be in the left exit region yes, but with the flow out of the southwest if its gonna come up the coast on the UL divergence side of the trough. Most assuredly will continue east, perhaps swing back to the west for New England like the euro/canadian are showing...but l'm not trying to extrapolate the 84 hr nam lol.

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The upper levels are moving from NW to SE, exiting the SE coast at over 100kts on the prog. I have a hard time believing that would turn immediately north up the coast in later frames.

Just to show you evolution,this is day four and five Euro from today at 200 level, the euro moved the storm due North

4177f2fe-c484-2a82.jpg

4177f2fe-c4a5-a353.jpg

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Just to show you evolution,this is day four and five Euro from today at 200 level, the euro moved the storm due North

Well played. Maybe it could in later frames... what do I know? lol. I was just commenting that the 18z NAM 84hour prog appeared to have that thing continue east off the coast. There's no hint in the jet streak of northward motion (in fact the leading edge of the streak looks to be further south than the tail end). But again, its an 18z NAM 84 hour prog so it isn't worth it haha...

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Euro ensembles are very similar to the OP for the Dec 6 threat...they actually slightly W or SW of the OP for the the Dec 4th smaller event.

And I know its a running joke about this threat...but they definitely have a mean LP near the benchmark for Dec 12-13. :lol:

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Well played. Maybe it could in later frames... what do I know? lol. I was just commenting that the 18z NAM 84hour prog appeared to have that thing continue east off the coast. There's no hint in the jet streak of northward motion (in fact the leading edge of the streak looks to be further south than the tail end). But again, its an 18z NAM 84 hour prog so it isn't worth it haha...

Yea it is impossible to say what extrapolation would bring but sure looked familiar to me.

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Euro ensembles are very similar to the OP for the Dec 6 threat...they actually slightly W or SW of the OP for the the Dec 4th smaller event.

And I know its a running joke about this threat...but they definitely have a mean LP near the benchmark for Dec 12-13. :lol:

will for the smaller event......do you think from the Pike to Rte 2. sees flurries or more steady light snow as per euro ensembles. (obv not etched in stone)

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Euro ensembles are very similar to the OP for the Dec 6 threat...they actually slightly W or SW of the OP for the the Dec 4th smaller event.

And I know its a running joke about this threat...but they definitely have a mean LP near the benchmark for Dec 12-13. :lol:

Are you still thinking we could see a couple inches on Monday ?

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Euro ensembles are very similar to the OP for the Dec 6 threat...they actually slightly W or SW of the OP for the the Dec 4th smaller event.

And I know its a running joke about this threat...but they definitely have a mean LP near the benchmark for Dec 12-13. :lol:

I will act like Ryan the rest of the winter if we do not get at least six inches of snow by Dec 15th. I mean it, example post below.

Kevin I am putting you on ignore. Heading up to Mt Snow in my Prius to consume Chardoneau. Expecting torch conditions for the rest of the winter. If anyone gets out of line here if we ever have a threat, Bob and I will whip you into shape. Looks like we never see any thing exciting here in CT weatherwise but Wiz will be over next week to share forties with me so that will be exciting.

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will for the smaller event......do you think from the Pike to Rte 2. sees flurries or more steady light snow as per euro ensembles. (obv not etched in stone)

Yeah it would probably get some light snow down to the pike...hard to say if it would be steady light snow with an inch or two vs just off and on flurries/snow showers. The Euro is certainly the most bullish with this feature vs other guidance.

Northeast MA/SE NH would have the best chance for areas in SNE...the OP run probably gave Ray's area some light accumulation.

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Are you still thinking we could see a couple inches on Monday ?

I wouldn't rule anything out for Monday yet. Obviously I'd be leaning toward just cold with maybe a few flurries around, but there is still enough of a chance we see a retrograde solution to keep an eye out. The Euro nearly grazed eastern MA with the CCB in the Dec 6th system.

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I wouldn't rule anything out for Monday yet. Obviously I'd be leaning toward just cold with maybe a few flurries around, but there is still enough of a chance we see a retrograde solution to keep an eye out. The Euro nearly grazed eastern MA with the CCB in the Dec 6th system.

18z GFS def took a step in the right direction.. Still 120 out too.

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