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Paid the tolls...moving into winter


weathafella

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Overall a nice run for sustained winter and if it is at the end of the run a perfect setup for a snow for us.

As long as it's cold, we'll get snow chances.     Good enough after last winter.    It seems as though it has been two  years since we've had a good snowfall!

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12z Euro brings up a huge ridge over Kamchatka by mid next week, which supports a strong GOA low going forward, as we thought. China freezes while most of the US and western Canada get a lot of Pacific air. But ridge in that position actually supports eastern Canada/NE US cold it appears, especially if we can keep our positive height anomalies over Iceland and Greenland.

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It's a real race to see if any precipitation is left when the temperature gets down near 32F. Now the temperature drop is slowing a lot and the back edge is maybe 60 miles southwest of here and moving steadily. Looking at the models for the last few days they have never really showed much in the way of anafrontal snow this far east ..essentially a few snow showers/flurries.

It's really rippin here now with strong winds rain. Feels like there's a change in the air the last 30 minutes. Really nasty.

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It's really rippin here now with strong winds rain. Feels like there's a change in the air the last 30 minutes. Really nasty.

looks like per the meso map the 0c 850's might be 2 hours ahead of schedule moving east....but that still puts them in E'rn PA ...on a line from scranton to reading (N-S)

still when the line of showers swings thru behind that by about 20 miles or so is where the sharpest drop in 850 temps lurk ....(Eastern half of PA has 14C 850 temp differences)

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# good link to save

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It has flipped to snow about 40 miles west of here, but near the very back edge of the precip....

looks like per the meso map the 0c 850's might be 2 hours ahead of schedule moving east....but that still puts them in E'rn PA ...on a line from scranton to reading (N-S)

still when the line of showers swings thru behind that by about 20 miles or so is where the sharpest drop in 850 temps lurk ....(Eastern half of PA has 14C 850 temp differences)

http://www.spc.ncep....r.php?sector=16# good link to save

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It has flipped to snow about 40 miles west of here, but near the very back edge of the precip....

yeah it looks pretty clear that nobody in elevated deep interior SNE will be seeing more than a mangled flake out of this.

i'm not good at forecasting lake enhanced precip or wether any other shortwaves could add some SN- later but this batch of precip isn't producing 1-2 accumulating inches you can pretty much take that to the bank.

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It's a real race to see if any precipitation is left when the temperature gets down near 32F. Now the temperature drop is slowing a lot and the back edge is maybe 60 miles southwest of here and moving steadily. Looking at the models for the last few days they have never really showed much in the way of anafrontal snow this far east ..essentially a few snow showers/flurries.

this was back end snow in WNY...before any lake-effect kicked in.

LOCATION 6 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY... RUSHFORD 4.0 1201 PM 12/1 SPOTTER...ERIE COUNTY... LANCASTER 3.5 1100 AM 12/1 CLARENCE CENTER 3.0 1114 AM 12/1 MARILLA 2.0 1030 AM 12/1 BUFFALO 3.0 1201 PM 12/1 WEATHER SERVICE...NIAGARA COUNTY... LOCKPORT 2.5 1100 AM 12/1 THUNDER EAST WILSON 2.0 1115 AM 12/1 THUNDER

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Squall line blew through here impressively. The temperature fell from 55.4 to 37.5 now. Still squally rains and windy.

It's really rippin here now with strong winds rain. Feels like there's a change in the air the last 30 minutes. Really nasty.

It's really rippin here now with strong winds rain. Feels like there's a change in the air the last 30 minutes. Really nasty.

weenie envy

51/50 r- temps busted about 6-7 degrees low today. too bad

It's a real race to see if any precipitation is left when the temperature gets down near 32F. Now the temperature drop is slowing a lot and the back edge is maybe 60 miles southwest of here and moving steadily. Looking at the models for the last few days they have never really showed much in the way of anafrontal snow this far east ..essentially a few snow showers/flurries.

looks like per the meso map the 0c 850's might be 2 hours ahead of schedule moving east....but that still puts them in E'rn PA ...on a line from scranton to reading (N-S)

still when the line of showers swings thru behind that by about 20 miles or so is where the sharpest drop in 850 temps lurk ....(Eastern half of PA has 14C 850 temp differences)

http://www.spc.ncep....r.php?sector=16# good link to save

It has flipped to snow about 40 miles west of here, but near the very back edge of the precip....

yeah it looks pretty clear that nobody in elevated deep interior SNE will be seeing more than a mangled flake out of this.

i'm not good at forecasting lake enhanced precip or wether any other shortwaves could add some SN- later but this batch of precip isn't producing 1-2 accumulating inches you can pretty much take that to the bank.

this was back end snow in WNY...before any lake-effect kicked in.

LOCATION 6 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY... RUSHFORD 4.0 1201 PM 12/1 SPOTTER...ERIE COUNTY... LANCASTER 3.5 1100 AM 12/1 CLARENCE CENTER 3.0 1114 AM 12/1 MARILLA 2.0 1030 AM 12/1 BUFFALO 3.0 1201 PM 12/1 WEATHER SERVICE...NIAGARA COUNTY... LOCKPORT 2.5 1100 AM 12/1 THUNDER EAST WILSON 2.0 1115 AM 12/1 THUNDER

There's an obs thread for today's event.

:arrowhead:

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