CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I swear the UKMET is the forgotten model sometimes...5 and 6 day verification is just behind the ECMWF and ahead of the GFS and GEM Nah, I look at it. Sometimes, it's treated as the red-headed step child..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nah, I look at it. Sometimes, it's treated as the red-headed step child..lol. It has a fetish for extreme solutions sometimes even though its overall verification is good in the D5 range. Remember last year when it insisted we were getting 3 feet out of the New Years event...like 8 runs in a row until 60 hours out? lol I think that's why its sometimes viewed with a drop of skepticism...but I would say the GFS certainly should not be viewed with more credibility because its a worse model than the Ukie. Yet, we often seem to get mesmorized by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nah, I look at it. Sometimes, it's treated as the red-headed step child..lol. Good mets definitely should look at it...I'm more referring to the weenies...but at least half of that is due to data access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It has a fetish for extreme solutions sometimes even though its overall verification is good in the D5 range. Remember last year when it insisted we were getting 3 feet out of the New Years event...like 8 runs in a row until 60 hours out? lol I think that's why its sometimes viewed with a drop of skepticism...but I would say the GFS certainly should not be viewed with more credibility because its a worse model than the Ukie. Yet, we often seem to get mesmorized by the GFS. It did correctly call the northward extent of the Dec. 19th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm looking at the qpf probs, and it doesn't look like that to me. http://www.stormvista.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=6555&pid=78216&st=0entry78216 This is what i read over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It has a fetish for extreme solutions sometimes even though its overall verification is good in the D5 range. Remember last year when it insisted we were getting 3 feet out of the New Years event...like 8 runs in a row until 60 hours out? lol I think that's why its sometimes viewed with a drop of skepticism...but I would say the GFS certainly should not be viewed with more credibility because its a worse model than the Ukie. Yet, we often seem to get mesmorized by the GFS. I thought it also brought it into BID at one point too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 http://www.stormvist...t=0 This is what i read over there. I can't see any members like he apparently can. I wasn't even aware that's possible..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 harry does get the individual members he posts about them in the central/lakes forum if there is a storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I swear the UKMET is the forgotten model sometimes...5 and 6 day verification is just behind the ECMWF and ahead of the GFS and GEM I check it when I can but I can't get anything post 120 hours for threats like this which is annoying. I like your LR UKMET posts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 One other difference I noticed between the GFS and Euro is the GFS is farther east with the H5 low over AK D3-5 and this causes the ridge over BC and central canada to be farther east. You can see at hr120 the ridge in canada is back toward BC/Alberta on the Euro but more like Manitoba on the GFS. Keeping the low back farther west to the Aleutians should allow more ridging to build up in Canada, and for the ridge axis to be farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 God how slow is the GFS? I almost rather the model just release all hours at once at like 6 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS will cooperate tonight. When do we finally put this 12/6 threat to rest? Thursday 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS will cooperate tonight. When do we finally put this 12/6 threat to rest? Thursday 12z? i think its much better.. it actually develops and has storm further south on this run... now all we need is a shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS will cooperate tonight. When do we finally put this 12/6 threat to rest? Thursday 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why does the darn block have to be so far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 There was some improvement with the AK low and the western ridge. It's still way too far east though. Most EC storms have ridging over BC or offshore of BC prior to the event. But by 12/7 the ridge axis is already to MN and there is a GOA low which is way too far east if we are going to get a storm 12/8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS will cooperate tonight. When do we finally put this 12/6 threat to rest? Thursday 12z? Last night. At least we can start Decmeber with below average temps, er......guess the month starts tomorrow. Try gain. At least we can make up for tomorrow's warm start to December. Mighty chilly next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 wow.. this storm reminds me of feb 25 2010 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Still has that monster out on d12-13 like 12Z. If only..... But the point is the block relaxes and then something pops. Sooner or later it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Doesn't look like the 18z GFS will cooperate tonight. When do we finally put this 12/6 threat to rest? Thursday 12z? What are you talking about? Great upslope signal from like the 5th through the 8th... oh wait, we now have a thread for that And still going 3 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Last night. At least we can start Decmeber with below average temps, er......guess the month starts tomorrow. Try gain. At least we can make up for tomorrow's warm start to December. Mighty chilly next week. Yeah that one has been laid to rest, imo. 12z models today trended towards the latter storm. The 18z GFS is not a bad solution. It's a wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Why does the darn block have to be so far south? Don't sweat it yet; this pattern is so volatile that the ultimate outcome will not be consistently modeled remotely correctly until about 48-72 hrs out. This has all the appeal of.....windy, cold, dry, cold, windy cold......BOOM; you have 48 hrs to prepare. Could the culmination of all of this be P Cloudy and 29*, amid tauntingly trival, wind blown flurries.....sure, but we won't know whether or not that will be the case for days to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah that one has been laid to rest, imo. 12z models today trended towards the latter storm. The 18z GFS is not a bad solution. It's a wide right. Right. I'm just happy it has the bomb back now. Its just Boise State's Kicker right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Still has that monster out on d12-13 like 12Z. If only..... But the point is the block relaxes and then something pops. Sooner or later it happens. This is where I think we can cash in too Jerry. I talked about an Archambault event as a possibility back on Nov 22 for the latter end of the first week in Dec. I may be off a few days but I still think we may see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Gotta love the long range 18z GFS ... in general, everyday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Gotta love the long range 18z GFS ... in general, everyday lol Massive -AO as that ridge over Kamchatka amplifies towards the NP. Very cold pattern for most of N America and potentially stormy too. Liking the potential for the next few weeks even if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Don't sweat it yet; this pattern is so volatile that the ultimate outcome will not be consistently modeled remotely correctly until about 48-72 hrs out. This has all the appeal of.....windy, cold, dry, cold, windy cold......BOOM; you have 48 hrs to prepare. Could the culmination of all of this be P Cloudy and 29*, amid tauntingly trival, wind blown flurries.....sure, but we won't know whether or not that will be the case for days to come. Yeah, if we do see something try and rotate under this block, there's a good chance we won't see it until its much closer in. I have much less faith in Dec 5th now that modeling is coming to a better consensus for a strong vortex over us initially...though even that really isn't set in stone IMHO until another 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 280+ 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Finishes the run with a SWFE followed by extreme cold in the norther tier of the nation and Canada. Something for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah, if we do see something try and rotate under this block, there's a good chance we won't see it until its much closer in. I have much less faith in Dec 5th now that modeling is coming to a better consensus for a strong vortex over us initially...though even that really isn't set in stone IMHO until another 24-36 hours. Will, What's your take on the 12/8,9 storm? Watch and Wait? Or, What do we need to see happen for the storm to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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