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Paid the tolls...moving into winter


weathafella

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just adjust the ULL a hair and don't string out the vort max as much and it's probably better. right now, looks almost identical to the 12z ggem

I think we are seeing the nascent stages of a conscensus between the GEM and EURO depictions, thankfully, that allots time for some adjustments....

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I am looking forward to a brown dark landscape, filled with partly cloudy afternoons while pete gets an occasional flurry day after day after day, nice frigid nights and cold dark days, massive heating bills, and not single snow pile to account for the pattern come Dec 15th, H5 looks good though!!:thumbsup:

you live in the right part of NYC metro area for that.

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Have everything manifest itself about 200-300 miles west of where it initially goes bonkers S of Nova Scotia. That would probably be a 2-3 footer if it did that...but that's getting pretty greedy, lol.

If we just have the retrograde occur a bit SW (even like 75-100 miles), then we can get pretty good snows (over warning criteria) even if its already into the occluding process.

Jan 1-3, 2010.

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What is the QPF for downeast Maine? And how much is snow?

For the 2nd event, it looks close to 0.75" of qpf...though that is for the BGR region...maybe more like 0.40"-0.50" for PWM...with a sharp gradient just W and SW of them. Your area may get about half of that, but the gradient is pretty fine and not to be taken seriously at 126 hours.

The first event at 66-78 hours might give you a 1-3" type snowfall...perhaps 3-5" to your northeast into central Maine with a pocket of 6"+ in north-central Maine.

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You guys are fine.....even yesterday with powderfreak was lighthearted, but I honestly thought they may be better suited to dedicate a thread to it.

Yeah upslope snows that affect about 0.01% of the population can probably have a dedicated thread...also because its a different phenomenon than synoptic snows. This retrograde solution would actually affect a large portion of Maine and potentially NH and even N MA.

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For the 2nd event, it looks close to 0.75" of qpf...though that is for the BGR region...maybe more like 0.40"-0.50" for PWM...with a sharp gradient just W and SW of them. Your area may get about half of that, but the gradient is pretty fine and not to be taken seriously at 126 hours.

The first event at 66-78 hours might give you a 1-3" type snowfall...perhaps 3-5" to your northeast into central Maine with a pocket of 6"+ in north-central Maine.

Thanks. I'd like to stress that I was not asking for IMBY totals. lol I won't do that til inside 48 hours. Just curious about the max possibility up north.

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24 hours ago there was no chance, today it an off shore bomb backing up to what the Euro showed a couple of days ago. Writing this off today is silly, a tweak here a tweak there and we have a 81or ECM better scenario. Exciting model runs from now until Sunday, keep in the back of your mind what happened last year with the Dec KU, when it comes to modeling.

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Haha... I really hope this works out for you guys down in SNE or else there are going to be a lot of angry SNE weenies if ME and the upslope regions are the only ones getting significant snow out of this.

:lol:

thankfully i think most people understand the deal. of course, if it went that way all winter, different story.

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That may be the example we are looking for, as to why we want this block.

Yeah we'd be torching if it weren't for that.

It looks ot be reconfiguring the NAO block into an Iceland/UK block vs further west. This is helping push all the cold air into SE Canada and NE. Though we are fighting a bit more for it down here.

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