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Paid the tolls...moving into winter


weathafella

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Some interesting trends on the 12z Euro....first s/w trended stronger from 00z, but also faster...the faster part isn't very good since it leaves less time for the NE vortex to relax a bit.

However, of more interest for the Maine folks and even N NH, it retrogrades a little low around 72h and produces advisory snows across much of the state. It even gets some light snow down to near KGAY.

Another item of note is that the hudson bay vortex is further west so it might give more room for our NE vortex to retrograde later on. We'll have to see on that.

I think the net result is a bit of a negative trend here....

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A little further east from 00z it appears.

Yeah, mildly disappointing after the NAM this morning and the 00z Euro run last night...but man, that is a bomb offshore. If we can trend that not too far west, we'd have a hell of a storm on our hands. That thing is like 968mb.

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Yeah, mildly disappointing after the NAM this morning and the 00z Euro run last night...but man, that is a bomb offshore. If we can trend that not too far west, we'd have a hell of a storm on our hands. That thing is like 968mb.

Yeah I know it. Man what a tease..lol. That dam ULL...but that same ULL gives rise to its intensity.

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Yeah I know it. Man what a tease..lol. That dam ULL...but that same ULL gives rise to its intensity.

If that trends about 75-100 miles SW, then most of eastern SNE has warning criteria snow. Even Portland ME on this run probably gets 4-6" of snow.

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What would it take to get a Ginxy gale out of this here....I mean feet....

Have everything manifest itself about 200-300 miles west of where it initially goes bonkers S of Nova Scotia. That would probably be a 2-3 footer if it did that...but that's getting pretty greedy, lol.

If we just have the retrograde occur a bit SW (even like 75-100 miles), then we can get pretty good snows (over warning criteria) even if its already into the occluding process.

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If that trends about 75-100 miles SW, then most of eastern SNE has warning criteria snow. Even Portland ME on this run probably gets 4-6" of snow.

Yeah I'm watching this one given my location. It also leaves a baroclinic zone just offshore, thanks to the retrograde. Any shortwave that is strong enough could ignite another low if far enough west.

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also besides the nothing to see attitude doesn't MAINE get crushed on this euro run..

first advisory level snows 72 hrs then coastal bomb for downeast maine at 120? or am i missing something

Pretty much, Looks like advisory snows on Sat and possible warning snows mon-tue.......

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I am looking forward to a brown dark landscape, filled with partly cloudy afternoons while pete gets an occasional flurry day after day after day, nice frigid nights and cold dark days, massive heating bills, and not single snow pile to account for the pattern come Dec 15th, H5 looks good though!!:thumbsup:

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