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Paid the tolls...moving into winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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12/12 on this run...redeveloping clipper Miller B...with a bit of gulf connection.

What are your thoughts about the extended through mid month..as far as the upper level pattern and temps? It looks like we may have more of a gradient pattern if the euro ensemble are right. It did look like they moderated a bit, but they have been struggling with resolving the pattern.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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What are your thoughts about the extended through mid month..as far as the upper level pattern and temps? It looks like we may have more of a gradient pattern if the euro ensemble are right. It did look like they moderated a bit, but they have been struggling with resolving the pattern.

It appears we may get more of a gradient pattern as the NAO relaxes, but we've seen signs all over the ensembles that the NAO tries to rebuild again after the brief relaxation. Not sure if thats right, but Wes often talks about a research piece that Don Sutherland did on very negative NAO episodes...they usually bounce back some after a relaxation period. It wasn't true of more mundane -NAO periods.

As long as we keep the big ridging over Kamchatka and Bering Straight regions, the cold will never be that far away in Canada. We've seen signs of some of that ridging getting pinched off and migrating north of AK creating a separate smaller block up there further east than the main ridge.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It appears we may get more of a gradient pattern as the NAO relaxes, but we've seen signs all over the ensembles that the NAO tries to rebuild again after the brief relaxation. Not sure if thats right, but Wes often talks about a research piece that Don Sutherland did on very negative NAO episodes...they usually bounce back some after a relaxation period. It wasn't true of more mundane -NAO periods.

As long as we keep the big ridging over Kamchatka and Bering Straight regions, the cold will never be that far away in Canada. We've seen signs of some of that ridging getting pinched off and migrating north of AK creating a separate smaller block up there further east than the main ridge.

Some of the NAO plumes that ecmwf.int has do show this.

I agree with the ridging up by AK..we don't want to see it moving west. So far, it looks like it wants to hold for now.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
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Don't know about you guys, but my back is killing me from shoving all this potential snow. I don't think I can handle much more. And it's been so potentially cold this past week that nothing is melting. There are drifts of potential that reach the second floor windows!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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12z gefs mean keeps the 5/6 low pretty far offshore but does get some light precip scraping back into BOS/PVD pts east so maybe there remain a few members running west akin to the 00z and 06z members.

Yeah, I guess the weenie phrase is....."the ensembles are slightly west of the op"..lol. That's not a bad thing 5 days out.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Don't know about you guys, but my back is killing me from shoving all this potential snow. I don't think I can handle much more. And it's been so potentially cold this past week that nothing is melting. There are drifts of potential that reach the second floor windows!

How much did you expect to shovel by Dec 1......not usually much.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Don't know about you guys, but my back is killing me from shoving all this potential snow. I don't think I can handle much more. And it's been so potentially cold this past week that nothing is melting. There are drifts of potential that reach the second floor windows!

I cant believe 11/25 didn't work out...that was supposed to be a MECS.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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How much did you expect to shovel by Dec 1......not usually much.

I never *expect* anything before Dec 1st. Anything before Dec is bonus. BUT I did think that we would have at least one light snow event in late Nov, and the optimistic side of me thought we'd be in a self-sustaining wintry pattern by now.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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I cant believe 11/25 didn't work out...that was supposed to be a MECS.

I think the trauma incurred last year by the majority of the region has facilitated unrealistic expectations for the start of this season; I can never recall so many crying that t-day threats that didn't deliver.

It had the opposite effect on me; the fact that I was so emotionally vulnerable to meteorological phenomena has prompted me to reevaluate myself, not my expectations for the early season.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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"-NAO does not mean snow" :whistle: At least not in any auto sense of it ...

Yes it can it can snow for a variety reasons, if perhaps more meso-beta scaled; like WINDEX, flat waves with huge vortmaxes that are anomalous relative to the surrounding field. But by definition and circumstance of "anomaly" those would be rare.

Case in point (and maybe Will's brilliant predilection for storm recall can assist) there was a Nowcast Winter Storm Warning back in ...I think maybe February of 2001? We had bitter cold in place, and while I am not sure what the NAO was doing, still ... it's a good example. The air was dry, the wind was NW, and whiteout snows erupted along and S of the Mass Pike for 4-6 hours leveling 10" of unpredicted orgasm in some locations. I think the forecast was a 1-3er.

These GFS runs are like proverbial face smacks by an angry abusive teacher that is pissed off because the class can't seem to wrap their heads around the idea that -NAO can be as toxic as a -PNA/+NAO for snow - it's just that one delves in cold while the other 86's your hopes with heat. 'Yeah, but with the -NAO you still have to', SMACK! ...On to the next run, 'But then again, ...with the -NAO we can', SMACK! ...Eventually the enough of those smacks will throw a hand or two up begging for submission, 'okay, okay, NAO go away'.

That said, I do like the fact that -NAO (more 50% of the time) will at least foundation cold, such that if the given NAO is a bad behavor, there is hope that the transition out will enduce a good event for synoptic disruption (IBID Heather).

I was reviewing the teleconnector from the overnight computations and guess what? Yuck. The CPC has been pounding a rather concerted rise among the members of -NAO index, which given above is ironically not good in this situation. The reason why is because the PNA is stuck negative. What this means on paper is that the Nina zealots cry for Pac invasion may gain some plausibility heading deeper into December ...pretty much just in time to demolish any snow pack that might have found a way to lay down prior to Christmas. (I just seems there some evil supernatural force flucking with us here :lmao:

Now, I was previously less worried about this teleconnector signal because the CDC was not agreeing with either index. Their values had a more neutralized PNA and a modest if at all rise in the NAO. Last night's comp seems to have changed. Now the CDC is nodding to the weakening -NAO, and there PNA is showing more negative out around D10.

Stranger things have happened but in a moderate to strong leading NINA signa, I don't like doing the Pacific favors ;)

We'll see. It would be nice if there was just some macro-scale permutation that changed all this - which has happened befoe. Hmmm, in knowing that, it prompted me to check the MJO; for one, I have not heard the term tropical forcing from anyone as of late. The MJO is unfortunately incoherently weak right now, so that factor is devoid from influence for the time being. We shall have to wait.

Lastly, hoping the GFS in the interim is just wrong, the NAM is onto something, and the ECM will reflect that here in a couple of hours.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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12z gefs mean keeps the 5/6 low pretty far offshore but does get some light precip scraping back into BOS/PVD pts east so maybe there remain a few members running west akin to the 00z and 06z members.

Snow threats or not I'm looking forward to some solid cold being in place so we can at least get the pond hockey and ice fishing underway out here. The models have at least been consistent with that.

Light qpf for Bos/PVD means heavy, heavy, p. cloudy out here.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Correct. ~ 12/13 is usually a good time to bring out the shovels, though.

I think we will by then.

I never *expect* anything before Dec 1st. Anything before Dec is bonus. BUT I did think that we would have at least one light snow event in late Nov, and the optimistic side of me thought we'd be in a self-sustaining wintry pattern by now.

Shame on you for letting your guard down since we all know of deterministic guidance's tendency to rush major pattern changes.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I think the trauma incurred last year by the majority of the region has facilitated unrealistic expectations for the start of this season; I can never recall so many crying that t-day threats that didn't deliver.

It had the opposite effect on me; the fact that I was so emotionally vulnerable to meteorological phenomena has prompted me to reevaluate myself, not my expectations for the early season.

Yeah...plus we were talking about a general pattern change like 2-3 weeks in advance so people start dreaming of snow events but in reality we had to remember they are 15-20 days away...so when 10-12 days go by and the threats are still pretty far out in the long range, it seems as if they will never occur.

But after all the talk, we step back and find ourselves merely at the 1st of December. Its not like we are about to hit Christmas Eve. Though in some fairness, the pattern was delayed slightly...we thought it might be go time more around 11/28 vs 12/3 after this front moves through, but that wasn't particularly shocking given the lead time we were dealing with.

But bottom line, we mentioned that the first 10 days of December would feature some legit threats and I do not think there is much evidence on guidance to change that thinking.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
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Shame on you for letting your guard down since we all know of deterministic guidance's tendency to rush major pattern changes.

I wasn't really following guidance, but it added confidence. It started with showing a pattern change by the third week of Nov, and like I said, I was thinking (hoping) we could be in a favorable pattern by Dec 1.

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