Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[TalcottWx]

That's the old EE rule. Still a bit early to implement it, but if the Euro comes in more amplified at 12z, you might be able to take it to the bank.

The next two euros are crucial. We also need to see the GFS trend towards euro. Thats when ill start taking it really seriously.

[ORH_wxman]

really?? i thought for sure there was an 18z nam run that came in all of sudden brought it much further north...maybe not. i certainly don't log these things into my memory bank like you.

edit: wait...just read that again. maybe we are thinking of the same thing.

Yeah that 18z run the day before...it finally went nuts and hit MRG's area with like 2" of qpf which was obviously way over trended, lol. The run before that barely had precip north of Philly. It was dreadful in that storm.

[CoastalWx]

NAM does well in getting the storms further north and the first to notice it. It never showed snow here in the 2/5 storm...and I think only 1 or 2 runs showed big snow here in the 2/10 storm. It definitely red flagged potential for a nasty cutoff near us in that. It was terrific in the 12/5 event.

The 12/19 storm it performed terribly on IIRC. It was dry even in NYC until pretty close in and then all of the sudden it went bonkers and hit MRG's area with a max which was obviously wrong and overdone with the trend. So its not perfect.

I thought a couple of runs brought heavy snow into MA....I remember when it showed MRG getting clocked. I do remember how the Ukie shifted like 80 miles at one point and left us all dry for 12/19, only to come right back.

In any case, hopefully it's a signal.

[gpetrics]

then all of the sudden it went bonkers and hit MRG's area with a max which was obviously wrong and overdone with the trend. So its not perfect.

are you referring to Mad River Glen's geographic area?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah that 18z run the day before...it finally went nuts and hit MRG's area with like 2" of qpf which was obviously way over trended, lol. The run before that barely had precip north of Philly. It was dreadful in that storm.

hmmmm. yeah i definitely remember the run that went nuts - because it flipped me to rain. but i thought it had done OK prior to that. i definitely trust your memory on it more than mine.

i thought it was good thru that december event and then went right to the crapper after that. maybe it was only good with the october snow. LOL.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I thought a couple of runs brought heavy snow into MA....I remember when it showed MRG getting clocked. I do remember how the Ukie shifted like 80 miles at one point and left us all dry for 12/19, only to come right back.

In any case, hopefully it's a signal.

i definitely remember that one.

[CoastalWx]

hmmmm. yeah i definitely remember the run that went nuts - because it flipped me to rain. but i thought it had done OK prior to that. i definitely trust your memory on it more than mine.

i thought it was good thru that december event and then went right to the crapper after that. maybe it was only good with the october snow. LOL.

Ray almost lost it when you texted him that the Ukie sucked.

[ORH_wxman]

hmmmm. yeah i definitely remember the run that went nuts - because it flipped me to rain. but i thought it had done OK prior to that. i definitely trust your memory on it more than mine.

i thought it was good thru that december event and then went right to the crapper after that. maybe it was only good with the october snow. LOL.

I think the NAM was okay at 72-84h during the 12/19 storm..it showed potential for north....but then it was obscenely suppressed for a lot of runs in a row before it finally came back at the last second.

The 12/5 storm it kept insisting on a hit when it was a complete outlier for about 2 or 3 runs, then the Euro finally jumped on board. The Euro was late to the party in 12/19 too IIRC....then it finally started performing better after that.

NAM was great from October through about the first half of December last winter IIRC.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Ray almost lost it when you texted him that the Ukie sucked.

ha! yeah. that one run sucked the night before the storm. we had to talk him off the ledge.

[Typhoon Tip]

RE the 12z NAM:

That system would be a Miller B type re-development along the Del Marva. There would be some question as to its intensity however as the mid/ua vorticity is not outrageous. Also, given even moderate intensity there is question as to how far up the coast it would get – this because the –NAO hasn’t gone anywhere and that would force things south. It will be interesting to see what the other guidance does on the 12z runs

[Tropopause_Fold]

fwiw...gfs is probably a small step away from it's 00z counterpart. not amped to the extent of the ec or nam but slightly better.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looks like its much stronger with the vortex over NE and less amplified with the s/w in the plains.(than the NAM that is)

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks like its much stronger with the vortex over NE and less amplified with the s/w in the plains.(than the NAM that is)

It does look better than its 00z and 06z counterparts.

[ORH_wxman]

It does look better than its 00z and 06z counterparts.

Yes it does. It actually has a reasonably defined s/w over the midwest at 72-78h rather than a flattened piece of junk. Still too much confluence to do us any good, but maybe this would promote a retrograde solution further down the road (the 120h type deal)

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS looks like its much stronger with the vortex over NE and less amplified with the s/w in the plains.(than the NAM that is)

it is *slightly* better than its 00z run but yeah nowhere near the nam.

it is a bit more concentrated with the area of vorticity sliding down the backside of the trough but is still more strong out. you can see the results though at the surface (00z run vs. 12z)

[CoastalWx]

Yes it does. It actually has a reasonably defined s/w over the midwest at 72-78h rather than a flattened piece of junk. Still too much confluence to do us any good, but maybe this would promote a retrograde solution further down the road (the 120h type deal)

Yeah I thought the same. We'll see what happens.

[ski MRG]

are you referring to Mad River Glen's geographic area?

HI.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yes it does. It actually has a reasonably defined s/w over the midwest at 72-78h rather than a flattened piece of junk. Still too much confluence to do us any good, but maybe this would promote a retrograde solution further down the road (the 120h type deal)

looks to be the case.

[weatherwiz]

some pretty big differences between the NAM/GFS through 78 hours...NAM much more stronger with the s/w and a bit more amplified than the GFS is...also has more of a closed low over us. Doesn't look all too bad though.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS vortex over NE is just too over bearing this run to produce anything of significance inside of 5 days. We do see a low retrograde but its well out east of us and goes into Nova Scotia.

[CoastalWx]

looks to be the case.

It looks a little better than 06z, but still has lots of work to do. I'm looking forward to the Canadian and Euro.

[weatherwiz]

GFS vortex over NE is just too over bearing this run to produce anything of significance inside of 5 days. We do see a low retrograde but its well out east of us and goes into Nova Scotia.

That sucker needs to either weaken real soon or get the heck out of here.

[MaineJayhawk]

It looks a little better than 06z, but still has lots of work to do. I'm looking forward to the Canadian and Euro.

Let us not forget the red-headed step-child that is the fabulous UKMET.

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS vortex over NE is just too over bearing this run to produce anything of significance inside of 5 days. We do see a low retrograde but its well out east of us and goes into Nova Scotia.

interesting situation. the timing, exact location and strength of that feature will make a world of difference with respect to the energy dropping in on the backside. there's clearly no doubt that spiral of death will be there, it's just a matter of where exactly it sets up and when it truly closes and begins to take control.

[dryslot]

That sucker needs to either weaken real soon or get the heck out of here.

I hope it becomes weaker then progged because it does not look like its going anywhere.........

[Zeus]

Looks cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would never give credit to anyone at SV after what they did..sorry

What did Jack do that was so bad.....he started a board of his own; where is the crime....

[MaineJayhawk]

It'll be interesting to see if the 12/13 storm is still advertised.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the fact that it's modeled like that on the NAM. Something that strong will help force the PV north a bit, but also, get cyclogenesis started earlier and perhaps further north.

I agree....I thk this is one of those instances that the long range NAM is catching a trend....doesn't have to end up a big hit, but I believe that it and the EURO are on to something.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray almost lost it when you texted him that the Ukie sucked.

LOL We were at the Jade immersed in heavy heavy scorpion bowls.