Paid the tolls...moving into winter

[Ginx snewx]

Would a retro scenario draw in that manky marine crud?

Way north maybe, with heights so low and the cyrosphere so cold this is a way different setup. That being said coastal areas always have issues with NE winds in early Dec.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[MaineJayhawk]

I have nothing but the utmost respect for mall cops Black Ops.

[dryslot]

Would a retro scenario draw in that manky marine crud?

I would imagine if it retrograded far enough west we would get infiltrated with marine air, Happened last jan, And its not as cold now as it was then.......

[TalcottWx]

Do I buy retro scenario? NOPE.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Do I buy retro scenario? NOPE.

you should buy it. one way or another, multiple lows are going to rotate NW

[dryslot]

you should buy it. one way or another, multiple lows are going to rotate NW

Yes, It looks like that is whats going to take place, But it will come down to where the actual low is to who is nearby to benifit from it, Most guidance has it in canada........

[eduggs]

you should buy it. one way or another, multiple lows are going to rotate NW

Very true. Hopefully they are moving N instead of S or SW when they affect us. Otherwise they'll already be occluded and moisture lacking.

If a stronger s/w doesn't materialize out west and amplify as it slides across the country, the entire baroclinic environment will be swept offshore. We need the s/w and the baroclinicity to collide over land to our SW. Not in the Maritimes.

[snowNH]

Ummm.. 84 hour Nam looks good

[powderfreak]

Pretty high RH on there signalling some light snows in the air

10-30% RH at H7 and 70-90% at H85 is "pretty high RH"?

[CoastalWx]

Ummm.. 84 hour Nam looks good

LOL, it does...but I need something else other than the 84 hr NAM. Interesting, however.

[eduggs]

Ummm.. 84 hour Nam looks good

Was just going to say the same. Very interesting for mid-atlantic especially. More model support for a stronger clipper s/w - that's critical! Plenty of vorticity to sharpen the longwave trof axis just enough to fight back against the NE vortex. Extrap it might not hit New England. Unless the NE energy phased back into the whole developing trof. Then we'd have a sig storm.

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL, it does...but I need something else other than the 84 hr NAM. Interesting, however.

c'mon. it's a lock.

[MaineJayhawk]

LOL, it does...but I need something else other than the 84 hr NAM. Interesting, however.

If I have to hug the 84 hr NAM I will, dammit.

But seriously, does that sort of correlate with what the 0z Euro was selling?

[Mr Torchey]

Ummm.. 84 hour Nam looks good

Step in the right direction, lets see if the gfs follows.

Looks decent at 5,700 mb.

Nice kink in the isobars from charlotte ne thru raleigh and off the va capes.

[CoastalWx]

If I have to hug the 84 hr NAM I will, dammit.

But seriously, does that sort of correlate with what the 0z Euro was selling?

It does. If we extrapolate the NAM (yes I know that's bad) we do see the s/w trying to turn the corner imo.

[weatherwiz]

It does. If we extrapolate the NAM (yes I know that's bad) we do see the s/w trying to turn the corner imo.

s/w's stay either slightly positve/neutral tilted too from 72-84 HR which is good...not taking a negative tilt too early so this still gives time for the s/w to continue to dig.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL, it does...but I need something else other than the 84 hr NAM. Interesting, however.

It definitely is more like the 00z Euro...even more amplified actually. First model to hint at Dec 5th last year was the 84h NAM...I remember the Euro was too flat until inside of 72h.

[weatherwiz]

It definitely is more like the 00z Euro...even more amplified actually. First model to hint at Dec 5th last year was the 84h NAM...I remember the Euro was too flat until inside of 72h.

As horrible as the NAM can be at the 84th hour every once in a while it can catch onto something and then eventually other model guidance will start to catch on...would be nice if that happens to be the case here. Another good sign how this is more like the euro...if these two start showing some decent agreement there is a good chance something is up.

[CoastalWx]

It definitely is more like the 00z Euro...even more amplified actually. First model to hint at Dec 5th last year was the 84h NAM...I remember the Euro was too flat until inside of 72h.

SREF's have it too..just a little less amplified.

[MaineJayhawk]

It definitely is more like the 00z Euro...even more amplified actually. First model to hint at Dec 5th last year was the 84h NAM...I remember the Euro was too flat until inside of 72h.

Good news! It will be interesting to see if the GFS comes around to this thinking. Under 4 days out is generally considered prime time for the Euro, correct?

[ORH_wxman]

As horrible as the NAM can be at the 84th hour every once in a while it can catch onto something and then eventually other model guidance will start to catch on...would be nice if that happens to be the case here. Another good sign how this is more like the euro...if these two start showing some decent agreement there is a good chance something is up.

That's the old EE rule. Still a bit early to implement it, but if the Euro comes in more amplified at 12z, you might be able to take it to the bank.

[CoastalWx]

It definitely is more like the 00z Euro...even more amplified actually. First model to hint at Dec 5th last year was the 84h NAM...I remember the Euro was too flat until inside of 72h.

I like the fact that it's modeled like that on the NAM. Something that strong will help force the PV north a bit, but also, get cyclogenesis started earlier and perhaps further north.

[weatherwiz]

I like the fact that it's modeled like that on the NAM. Something that strong will help force the PV north a bit, but also, get cyclogenesis started earlier and perhaps further north.

THe sharp increase in the winds at the base of the s/w trough may be an indication as well that cyclogenesis may in fact begin right around the end of the NAM's timeframe.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I like the fact that it's modeled like that on the NAM. Something that strong will help force the PV north a bit, but also, get cyclogenesis started earlier and perhaps further north.

helps to not have the ULL closed yet over the NE/GOM.

[MaineJayhawk]

Mike at the Pit should be happy - we might have a legitimate threat under 10 days out.

[CoastalWx]

helps to not have the ULL closed yet over the NE/GOM.

It's like a recipe with this pattern, to get a storm here...like you're baking a dish, lol. A little of this..little of that......in this case, a little weaker here..little stronger there. I guess it's a step in the right direction, but I want to see the gfs and euro continue. I think the one thing that the NAM is sometimes good with..is depicting the resulting further north depiction when we have these blocks. Of course, it didn't work last year, but I do remember 12/5 and iirc I think it hinted at 12/19?? Will probably would know.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's like a recipe with this pattern, to get a storm here...like you're baking a dish, lol. A little of this..little of that......in this case, a little weaker here..little stronger there. I guess it's a step in the right direction, but I want to see the gfs and euro continue. I think the one thing that the NAM is sometimes good with..is depicting the resulting further north depiction when we have these blocks. Of course, it didn't work last year, but I do remember 12/5 and iirc I think it hinted at 12/19?? Will probably would know.

good analogy. a lot of these things you can't really separate out either. cause/effect as always. that's why signaling out something that needs to change 1000 miles away is worthwhile but fruitless at the same time. LOL.

yeah i think that and actually the first october snow of last season as well. the nam did well early on before being beaten to a pulp later on.

[ORH_wxman]

It's like a recipe with this pattern, to get a storm here...like you're baking a dish, lol. A little of this..little of that......in this case, a little weaker here..little stronger there. I guess it's a step in the right direction, but I want to see the gfs and euro continue. I think the one thing that the NAM is sometimes good with..is depicting the resulting further north depiction when we have these blocks. Of course, it didn't work last year, but I do remember 12/5 and iirc I think it hinted at 12/19?? Will probably would know.

NAM does well in getting the storms further north and the first to notice it. It never showed snow here in the 2/5 storm...and I think only 1 or 2 runs showed big snow here in the 2/10 storm. It definitely red flagged potential for a nasty cutoff near us in that. It was terrific in the 12/5 event.

The 12/19 storm it performed terribly on IIRC. It was dry even in NYC until pretty close in and then all of the sudden it went bonkers and hit MRG's area with a max which was obviously wrong and overdone with the trend. So its not perfect.

[Tropopause_Fold]

NAM does well in getting the storms further north and the first to notice it. It never showed snow here in the 2/5 storm...and I think only 1 or 2 runs showed big snow here in the 2/10 storm. It definitely red flagged potential for a nasty cutoff near us in that. It was terrific in the 12/5 event.

The 12/19 storm it performed terribly on IIRC. It was dry even in NYC until pretty close in and then all of the sudden it went bonkers and hit MRG's area with a max which was obviously wrong and overdone with the trend. So its not perfect.

really?? i thought for sure there was an 18z nam run that came in all of sudden brought it much further north...maybe not. i certainly don't log these things into my memory bank like you.

edit: wait...just read that again. maybe we are thinking of the same thing.