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Paid the tolls...moving into winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The euro ensembles are also similar to the op but still offshore.

The other thing we need to watch is for the pattern to become milder. The flow may become more zonal across the west, which opens up the door to a more gradient pattern after 12/11 or so. It's not a lock by any means..just something I'm noticing.

Would that 'milder' translate to being more kind to qpf chances? I'll take my chances with temps in December.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The euro ensembles are also similar to the op but still offshore.

The other thing we need to watch is for the pattern to become milder. The flow may become more zonal across the west, which opens up the door to a more gradient pattern after 12/11 or so. It's not a lock by any means..just something I'm noticing.

I think DT made reference to this potential last night in the chat room...he said something like once the blocking breaks down it's back to torching...that might not be the reason he said but he definitely said something about possibly going back to warmer weather.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

my two cents.

its december, i find it very hard to believe that this ull is going to park itself over ny or nne this time of year

think the blocking will not be as strong as currently modeled

sensible weather will hopefully be some sort of sopoc that slides off acy and gives some of us a quick tr-2 on monday maybe a touch more over se mass the cape and up by kgay

this :thumbsup: ^^^^^^

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I think DT made reference to this potential last night in the chat room...he said something like once the blocking breaks down it's back to torching...that might not be the reason he said but he definitely said something about possibly going back to warmer weather.

Well I don't see a torch, but we could see a more gradient pattern developing. Hopefully, we're on the cold side of this gradient. It does look pretty cold in Canada.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

SUN NT-TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST

STATES OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A

SFC LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN

BACKING NORTHWESTWARD INTO OR THROUGH SE CANADA. AT THE VERY

LEAST...THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO INCREASE IN AREAL

COVERAGE BY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW

ACROSS FAVORABLE...WEST FACING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE

DACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEYGR...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

GREENS/BERKS AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WILL

THEREFORE INDICATE CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS FOR VALLEY

AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES

COULD OCCUR...ESP SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BACK AS FAR

W AS SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...EXPECT RATHER

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS...ESP FOR DAYTIME

MAXES...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WITHIN

MOST VALLEYS...TO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT

MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS ACROSS HIGHER

ELEVATIONS.

Works for me even if it's still out there in time.

<ray>Nobody cares, There's a thread for this now, thanks <ray>

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Well I don't see a torch, but we could see a more gradient pattern developing. Hopefully, we're on the cold side of this gradient. It does look pretty cold in Canada.

A gradient pattern wouldn't be all that bad really, so long were on the colder side of it. If we happen to be in a fairly tight temperature gradient pattern I would think the chances are it's a pretty active pattern...systems really love to track along these boundaries.

He could have been talking about the Mid-Atlantic rather than us up here which was probably the case.

Anyways though you really have to like how things are looking down the road, I'll definitely take my chances with the upcoming pattern...I don't really care where the models are tracking storms at 180 HR out and all...lots of that is s/w timing, phasing, where the trough sets up, etc...models aren't going to handle these well that far out so track is irrelevant IMO.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

A gradient pattern wouldn't be all that bad really, so long were on the colder side of it. If we happen to be in a fairly tight temperature gradient pattern I would think the chances are it's a pretty active pattern...systems really love to track along these boundaries.

He could have been talking about the Mid-Atlantic rather than us up here which was probably the case.

Anyways though you really have to like how things are looking down the road, I'll definitely take my chances with the upcoming pattern...I don't really care where the models are tracking storms at 180 HR out and all...lots of that is s/w timing, phasing, where the trough sets up, etc...models aren't going to handle these well that far out so track is irrelevant IMO.

This pattern has been difficult to say the least. I went back and looked to see what models had...even only a week ago, and the ridges are where troughs are currently...and vice-versa.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This pattern has been difficult to say the least. I went back and looked to see what models had...even only a week ago, and the ridges are where troughs are currently...and vice-versa.

Yeah the pattern has not been an easy one to figure out, and to complicate things are we head into the winter season and wavelengths start decreasing more and more the models have trouble as they adjust to this so there is so much throwing off the models...in reality though they really haven't done a bad job at all, look at this system for instance, models have been rather consistent on this system...timing, strength, sfc low track.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Probably not. Dry above 850mb. Suppose there could certainly be flurries associated with the whole pinwheeling vortex. But mid-level lift is well offshore.

Plenty of moisture to be wrung out in the form of snowshowers,squalls..not to mention the Euro is almost back to the snow storm it had a few days ago. Huge step in the right direction last nite

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

0z Euro satisfy you?

Only 1 run, And its a retro scenario, Its possible thats how it ends up with this block, If we could lock it in sure, We will wait and see if it contiues showing this over the next few runs or get some other models to jump on board before i start tossing weenies in the air........

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Only 1 run, And its a retro scenario, Its possible thats how it ends up with this block, If we could lock it in sure, We will wait and see if it contiues showing this over the next few runs or get some other models to jump on board before i start tossing weenies in the air........

Would a retro scenario draw in that manky marine crud?

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