CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well I said this just an hour or two ago. Hopefully we can build on it the next few runs. The GFS ensemble mean certainly hinted at this too, but still waiting on seeing some of the individual members. Even the 12z euro had some members for the 5th-6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well, we agreed that the EURO needed to show some life in order to keep the Dec 5 drive alive and it has, but the bad news is that Kev is going to post "as we thought" about 323 times starting in roughly 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well I said this just an hour or two ago. Hopefully we can build on it the next few runs. The GFS ensemble mean certainly hinted at this too, but still waiting on seeing some of the individual members. Are you going to be doing the ECM ENS tonight, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Are you going to be doing the ECM ENS tonight, Will? Only if you promise to take your socks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Are you going to be doing the ECM ENS tonight, Will? No, I am too tired to stay up for those tonight. I'm having enough trouble staying up for this operational run. Given I can't see the individual members, the ensemble mean probably won't be overly useful tonight anyway except for maybe talking about the general pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well hopefully a sign for something more interesting tomorrow. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Pats/Jets Snow Bowl II, lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Pats/Jets Snow Bowl II, lock it up. Heavy heavy tracking and model watching in ORH on Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The long range Euro is brutal in the north atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Heavy heavy tracking and model watching in ORH on Sat night. When did the signal for the 4th-6th start showing up in earnest? Nov 15th? earlier even? Over the years when a specific date has been flagged repeatedly it seems to me that, even if the threat is temporarily lost it very often comes back. I haven't evr given up on that time period and won't be surprised in the least if something comes to fruition. Even if it is an ENE special. It's historically been a good period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 SUN NT-TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN BACKING NORTHWESTWARD INTO OR THROUGH SE CANADA. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAVORABLE...WEST FACING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE DACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEYGR...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKS AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WILL THEREFORE INDICATE CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR...ESP SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BACK AS FAR W AS SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...EXPECT RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS...ESP FOR DAYTIME MAXES...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...TO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Works for me even if it's still out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The long range Euro is brutal in the north atlantic Yeah, nice trough axis in the 6-10 day......slim chance of anything popping near the coast if the progs are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 SUN NT-TUE...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN BACKING NORTHWESTWARD INTO OR THROUGH SE CANADA. AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAVORABLE...WEST FACING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE DACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEYGR...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS/BERKS AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS. WILL THEREFORE INDICATE CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS FOR VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WHERE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR...ESP SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM BACK AS FAR W AS SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...EXPECT RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS...ESP FOR DAYTIME MAXES...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S WITHIN MOST VALLEYS...TO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS MAINLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Works for me even if it's still out there in time. Too bad it's for "west facing slopes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Nice to see the Euro and GGEM back on board with the s/w and light snow event 12/5-12/6 as we thought..Looks like a snowy Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Steve was the one that wanted to see the images, nobody else. I also I could not post them because they are proprietary and not free. It was done as a courtesy. My original intent was to point out where Kevin got his information. If you are going to quote someone, say who or reference who it is. I would never give credit to anyone at SV after what they did..sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like its almost back to where it was a couple days ago with that first wave. Yup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Nice to see the Euro and GGEM back on board with the s/w and light snow event 12/5-12/6 as we thought..Looks like a snowy Monday It does? I better look take another look. I was just thinking the conversation on Saturday would be over "imagine how cold this upcoming shot would be if we had snow cover". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It does? I better look take another look. I was just thinking the conversation on Saturday would be over "imagine how cold this upcoming shot would be if we had snow cover". Esp for Eastern areas..but plenty of time to bring it west..don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Esp for Eastern areas..but plenty of time to bring it west..don't worry IIRC, any model runs of the past week that showed snow were exclusive of western areas of SNE. As I said earlier, it would be ironic if we're the ones that actually get some. Even 5-6 days out, I have little confidence in wintry weather beyond some nipply temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 As mentioned earlier, I expect storms to materialize within 100 hours out or be found when lost. Party ORH 12/4 Fiyahhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 As mentioned earlier, I expect storms to materialize within 100 hours out or be found when lost. Party ORH 12/4 Fiyahhhhhhh Are you coming in for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I would never give credit to anyone at SV after what they did..sorry What did they do? Go out and make a few bucks? Jack's done what we'd all like. Make wx go from hobby to business. Nice trend on the Euro. Incidentally, GFS refuses to lose the d12 bomb. I find that in itself interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What did they do? Go out and make a few bucks? Jack's done what we'd all like. Make wx go from hobby to business. Nice trend on the Euro. Incidentally, GFS refuses to lose the d12 bomb. I find that in itself interesting. How did the Euro ensembles do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What did they do? Go out and make a few bucks? Jack's done what we'd all like. Make wx go from hobby to business. Nice trend on the Euro. Incidentally, GFS refuses to lose the d12 bomb. I find that in itself interesting. You do know Jack passed away this week right? May he rest in peace. Agreed nice trend and one we thought would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Are you coming in for that? Of course. How could I miss seeing the Rev in Scooter's wife's Snuggie in person? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 You do know Jack passed away this week right? May he rest in peace. Agreed nice trend and one we thought would happen WTF???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 WTF???????? Several threads here in OT and over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Too bad it's for "west facing slopes". Still means snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Several threads here in OT and over there. Wow that's pretty tragic! Shows how fragile life is........and how glad we should all be to be alive this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The euro ensembles are also similar to the op but still offshore. The other thing we need to watch is for the pattern to become milder. The flow may become more zonal across the west, which opens up the door to a more gradient pattern after 12/11 or so. It's not a lock by any means..just something I'm noticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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