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April 21-24th Severe Weather


SEMIweather

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Just pushed out my 22Z Severe Weather Analysis, seeing some impressive areas of instability and good tornado potential. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf Right now showing NE OK-S.MO to N. AR as the highest threat area. Seeing 0-3KM SRH around 312m/s, surface CAPE 2300 J/KG, and 0-1KM EHI is around 3.0.

Whats up with the "F6" tornado threat? tongue.gif

ScreenHunter_48Apr221802.jpg

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If chasing I would be playing the cell near Sedalia.

A theoretical 6/6 on chases? :scooter:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

510 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

MOC051-135-222230-

/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-110422T2230Z/

COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-

510 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MONITEAU AND

NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. A

TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED

NEAR MCGIRK...OR NEAR CALIFORNIA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

IN ADDITION...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS

STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...SANDY HOOK AND ELSTON.

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southeast of me in Louisville

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

613 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

KYC005-211-215-222230-

/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-110422T2230Z/

SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-

613 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL

ANDERSON...NORTHERN SPENCER AND SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 608 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SPOTTED

SOUTHEAST OF WATERFORD! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YODER...MOVING

EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...

LITTLE MOUNT...

TAYLORSVILLE...

SOUTHVILLE...

MOUNT EDEN AND WAYSIDE...

GEE AND HARRISONVILLE...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0527 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL

KY...SRN IL AND FAR ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 222227Z - 222300Z

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW QLCS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN

KY...WITH INCREASING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN FLANK WITH A FEW OF

THE STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THIS

LINE IS MOVING OFF THE LLJ AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH AN

ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR ACROSS SWRN AND S-CNTRL KY.

FARTHER W...CONCERN IS INCREASING ALONG AND TO THE S OF A WARM FRONT

DRAPED ACROSS SRN IL EXTENDING INTO NRN KY. CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO

THE UPPER 70S. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATELY STRONG

WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 20-30

KTS. AS CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MO/SRN IL INCREASES INTO THIS

EVENING...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR THIS REGION...REPLACING

PORTIONS OF SVR WW 178...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0521 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO...WRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...

VALID 222221Z - 230015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179 CONTINUES.

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH

179...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS FROM THE

COLUMBIA/JEFFERSON CITY/VICHY AREA EWD TOWARDS ST. LOUIS.

THE CNW PROFILER AND SGF VWP SHOWS RELATIVELY VEERED FLOW IN THE LOW

LEVELS ACROSS WRN MO...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRAIGHT LINE

HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER..FARTHER NE WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE BACKED

AHEAD OF THE LOW AND IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...SHEAR IS

STRONGER WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS JUST S OF THE

COLUMBIA MO AREA HAVE SHOWN STRONG ROTATION...AND THIS TREND IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THESE CELLS ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW LEVEL

SHEAR TO THE E. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0527 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL

KY...SRN IL AND FAR ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 222227Z - 222300Z

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW QLCS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN

KY...WITH INCREASING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN FLANK WITH A FEW OF

THE STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THIS

LINE IS MOVING OFF THE LLJ AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AXES...THOUGH AN

ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST FARTHER EWD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR ACROSS SWRN AND S-CNTRL KY.

FARTHER W...CONCERN IS INCREASING ALONG AND TO THE S OF A WARM FRONT

DRAPED ACROSS SRN IL EXTENDING INTO NRN KY. CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED

ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO

THE UPPER 70S. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATELY STRONG

WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM 20-30

KTS. AS CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MO/SRN IL INCREASES INTO THIS

EVENING...A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR THIS REGION...REPLACING

PORTIONS OF SVR WW 178...

:thumbsup:

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 181

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

550 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA

A LARGE PART OF KENTUCKY

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM

UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...E/W BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KY INTO ERN MO WILL FOCUS

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS

THE WATCH THRU THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...TORNADOS

WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOW ECHOES UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS

INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING.

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

621 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

WESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 617 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING

A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF KANSAS...

MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER

NOW!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

618 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

OKC037-107-111-222330-

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110422T2330Z/

OKMULGEE OK-CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-

618 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN

OKFUSKEE...SOUTHERN CREEK AND WESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A

VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED NEAR MASON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. A

TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKFUSKEE.

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