janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 no change to outllook over IL/MO i disagree DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH NWRN AR INTO MUCH OF SRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS TO THE SRN PLAINS... ..MO/AR/OK/TX FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING THE MODERATE RISK. FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 516 AND 518. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /3000-3500 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WARRANTS THE SWD EXTENSION OF THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY INTO NRN TX. ..OH VALLEY/MIDWEST EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO NWRN MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH SRN IL...SRN IND TO NRN-NERN KY. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LOCATED OVER IND TO SERN IL PER REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOME ACROSS SRN IND INTO CENTRAL/NRN KY. SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THIS PART OF THE OH VALLEY ATTENDANT TO ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THIS REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH NWD EXTENT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IL/IND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ONGOING MCS... THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM A SMALL PART OF THESE STATES. ..PETERS.. 04/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 They did up the tornado probs to 10% in southern MO/southern IL meanwhile, I'm in Louisville with a decent line of storms which is severe warned getting organized to my west. On the 24th floor of our hotel with a perfect view to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 They did up the tornado probs to 10% in southern MO/southern IL meanwhile, I'm in Louisville with a decent line of storms which is severe warned getting organized to my west. On the 24th floor of our hotel with a perfect view to the west. no that was in the 16:30 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Should see a watch shortly, think I have a tower going up just to my west in Joplin, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Should see a watch shortly, think I have a tower going up just to my west in Joplin, MO. Was going to say, weak echoes now showing up on the SGF 88D through almost 20kft (Barten Co., MO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 They did up the tornado probs to 10% in southern MO/southern IL meanwhile, I'm in Louisville with a decent line of storms which is severe warned getting organized to my west. On the 24th floor of our hotel with a perfect view to the west. Enjoy that line as it crashes in to Derbytown shortly. You must be at the Galt house with a view like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Enjoy that line as it crashes in to Derbytown shortly. You must be at the Galt house with a view like that. Yes sir, the view is amazing, I called ahead to make sure we could get a high floor looking west, a true weather geek lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 no that was in the 16:30 outlook whoops my bad lol btw nice work on the hourly quick updates. nice way to get info while not being on the laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Tornado watch shortly it sounds like for MO Wonder what the SGF sounding showed for CAPE Seeing some 3000-4000+ on SPC page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Tornado watch shortly it sounds like for MO Wonder what the SGF sounding showed for CAPE Seeing some 3000-4000+ on SPC page Parts of IL and MO AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40SE UMN/MONETT MO/ - 55NNW STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /38ENE RZC - 32SE UIN/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 335 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MO. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I know you'll be busy tonight, Beau, and I hope you don't add any more damage to your place, straight line wind or otherwise. Does look like the tor threat will be increasing for your area per current parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Ilstormchaser sitting in Licthfield IL, we are debating if he should hold for now and get the storms as they cross the river or punch into eastern MO(not that chaseable,,and lack of options to cross the river back) there are some areas just NE of Columbia mo that are chaseable udate: going ot move to Alton for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Definitely a lot of CAPE in the hail growth zone on the 21z SGF sounding, but winds have veered out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 W 180 TORNADO AR OK 222050Z - 230300Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 25S ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 40NNW FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /18SSE ADM - 23NW RZC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Interesting looking bean shaped cell by Carthage, MO, nice little meso developing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 If chasing I would be playing the cell near Sedalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Just watched the storm go by here. Some rain off and on and a couple chunks of small hail. It'll probably be a beast once it gets farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 If chasing I would be playing the cell near Sedalia. I agree, I like how isolated it is. Not to mention that it should be the storm that rides the boundary east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 That cell by Sedalia, MO really took off the last volume scan. Was struggling to tops around 25kft, now pushing 60dBZ through 30kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 If chasing I would be playing the cell near Sedalia. Good low level helicity on that warm front boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Literally right on the line here...see towers going up around me but also clear skies off in the distance. Something is going to have to get going fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 That cell by Sedalia, MO really took off the last volume scan. Was struggling to tops around 25kft, now pushing 60dBZ through 30kft. yep 56dBZ up to 40kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 yep 56dBZ up to 40kft. Nice inflow notch developing in the low levels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Its getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Low level meso getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 il stormchaser still holding in alton, but still debating rather to cross into hilly and tree heaven MO we expect a tornado in the jef city area north portions might as well warn it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TIPTON...CALIFORNIA...CLARKSBURG...MCGIRK...JAMESTOWN... CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...LATHAM...KLIEVER...SANDY HOOK...MARION AND ELSTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 il stormchaser still holding in alton, but still debating rather to cross into hilly and tree heaven MO we expect a tornado in the jef city area north portions might as well warn it now 419 WFUS53 KLSX 222140 TORLSX MOC051-135-222230- /O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0040.110422T2140Z-110422T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TIPTON...CALIFORNIA...CLARKSBURG...MCGIRK...JAMESTOWN... CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...LATHAM...KLIEVER...SANDY HOOK...MARION AND ELSTON. Not only that, but shooting nearly 65 dBZ to over 30kft. Approaching baseballs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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