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April 21-24th Severe Weather


SEMIweather

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no change to outllook over IL/MO i disagree

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0256 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH

NWRN AR INTO MUCH OF SRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE OH/MID MS

VALLEYS TO THE SRN PLAINS...

..MO/AR/OK/TX

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING THE

MODERATE RISK. FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE

DISCUSSIONS 516 AND 518. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR

HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL

TX. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /3000-3500 J PER

KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WARRANTS THE SWD EXTENSION OF

THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY INTO NRN TX.

..OH VALLEY/MIDWEST

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD

MOVED INTO NWRN MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH SRN

IL...SRN IND TO NRN-NERN KY. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LOCATED OVER

IND TO SERN IL PER REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOME ACROSS

SRN IND INTO CENTRAL/NRN KY. SLIGHT RISK REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS

THIS PART OF THE OH VALLEY ATTENDANT TO ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND A

SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE

EWD INTO THIS REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH NWD EXTENT...

ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IL/IND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ONGOING MCS...

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM A SMALL PART OF THESE

STATES.

..PETERS.. 04/22/2011

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They did up the tornado probs to 10% in southern MO/southern IL

meanwhile, I'm in Louisville with a decent line of storms which is severe warned getting organized to my west. On the 24th floor of our hotel with a perfect view to the west.

Enjoy that line as it crashes in to Derbytown shortly. You must be at the Galt house with a view like that.

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Tornado watch shortly it sounds like for MO

Wonder what the SGF sounding showed for CAPE

Seeing some 3000-4000+ on SPC page

Parts of IL and MO

AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

40SE UMN/MONETT MO/ - 55NNW STL/SAINT LOUIS MO/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /38ENE RZC - 32SE UIN/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

335 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MO. THESE

STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS

THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE

STRONGEST STORMS. ALSO...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS

THROUGH THE EVENING WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.

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Ilstormchaser sitting in Licthfield IL, we are debating if he should hold for now and get the storms as they cross the river or punch into eastern MO(not that chaseable,,and lack of options to cross the river back)

there are some areas just NE of Columbia mo that are chaseable

udate: going ot move to Alton for now

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W 180 TORNADO AR OK 222050Z - 230300Z

AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

25S ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 40NNW FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /18SSE ADM - 23NW RZC/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

TIPTON...CALIFORNIA...CLARKSBURG...MCGIRK...JAMESTOWN...

CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...LATHAM...KLIEVER...SANDY HOOK...MARION

AND ELSTON.

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il stormchaser still holding in alton, but still debating rather to cross into hilly and tree heaven MO

we expect a tornado in the jef city area north portions

might as well warn it now

419

WFUS53 KLSX 222140

TORLSX

MOC051-135-222230-

/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0040.110422T2140Z-110422T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

440 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIPTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

TIPTON...CALIFORNIA...CLARKSBURG...MCGIRK...JAMESTOWN...

CENTERTOWN...ST. MARTINS...LATHAM...KLIEVER...SANDY HOOK...MARION

AND ELSTON.

Not only that, but shooting nearly 65 dBZ to over 30kft. Approaching baseballs...

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