thewxmann Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I don't follow TX weather at all, but this seems very unique to me? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_burst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 we have had those here where i live (lincoln, ne), but not that often. My parents had to replace the shingles after we had one 5-8years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 MCS over northen and central Mo will keep the WF from moving too north today i think... RUC keeps clouds and precip over much of the warm sector (IL/MO) too it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Moderate risk across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri coming at 1630. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Yup, just SE of me in basically the same areas that were hit by the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I would think that will get extended into the lower Oh valley in the 20z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 12z soundings for OUN and SGF show significant helicity...with OUN 0-1 at 613 m2/s2, 0-3 at 699...and SGF 0-1 at 468 and 0-3 at 519... With bulk shear between 35 and 50 knots, supercells should be possible, at least with the initial development...I'd anticipate that the moderate risk is out for very large hail, but would not be surprised to see an increase in tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND SOUTHERN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID MS AND MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY... A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM OK INTO SOUTHERN MO. ..MO/IL INTO OH VALLEY A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR THE STL AREA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND IN REGION OF MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ..MO/AR/OK/TX A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION AND HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. TORNADOES APPEAR OF GREATEST CONCERN OVER SOUTHERN MO...FAR NORTHERN AR...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN IL WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I'm concerned about the tornado threat for Nrn AR, Srn MO, and Srn IL this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I'm concerned about the tornado threat for Nrn AR, Srn MO, and Srn IL this evening. I was just thinking the same thing too. It is plenty sunny here so we should make it up close to 80, with the dew point is 66. We can only have so many close calls, and we have had several already this year, before something significant happen in along the central/west AR/MO border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 makes me nervous when my STP is in the double digits in this case 12.1 .......although the cinh is pretty high at -124 and cape at 3km is pretty much non-existant so who knows. I have heard the RUC tends to over-do some things, what are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 clouds are breaking up over central MO..warm front along I-70 if temps reach the low-mid 70's this is above model guidence in these areas...realky concerned about central into SE MO including the STL metro later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1156 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO JUST EAST OF ALTUS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS TIME AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK/VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT. REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOP THROUGH MID EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING AS WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS WARM SECTOR...WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT OVERNIGHT. SENT UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING... INCREASING POPS/SEVERE CHANCES ALONG/DIRECTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 ANY DEVIANT STORMMOTIONS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT Watching the tornado warned storms on both the PC and TWC in WC Texas, and even Jim Cantore noticed, the storms followed mean flow when not tornado warned, ie, SW to NE, but headed due East to even a touch South of due East when Tornado Warned. A formerly tornado warned cell near ABI turned back to a normal direction when it weakened. I'm wondering how much very low level helicity is required if a storm has enough mid level shear to develop a meso and start heading right and increasing its own SRH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 wow the RUC has EHI in the 8-9's over SO MO from 7-9 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 18z update tornado threat continues to rapidily increase over central and southern MO clearing taking place and maybe a boundary backing winds just south of the true warm front CU building to the south of kansas city strong tornados appear possible STL may just time it right..clear out some later but winds stay backed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221804Z - 222000Z STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY FROM WCNTRL MO...SSE OF KANSAS CITY METRO...TO EXTREME SERN KS AFTER 21Z. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY /GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT/ BY 21Z. PLAINS PROFILER AND PRESENCE OF JET STREAK CIRRUS SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL WAVE AXIS WAS SWINGING THROUGH CNTRL KS AT 18Z. ACCAS FIELD WAS EXPANDING OVER SE KS/WCNTRL MO...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. CONTINUED MOISTENING VIA ASCENT SHOULD ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 21Z. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WAS RECOVERING RAPIDLY AS CLOUD COVER ERODES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 60S. EXPECT 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH 45-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR YIELDING SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN OZARKS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...BUT SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SRH SHOULD EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR A FEW TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES PRIMARILY WIND/HAIL THREATS LATER THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 /GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT/ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Tornado Watch likely ... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221804Z - 222000Z STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY FROM WCNTRL MO...SSE OF KANSAS CITY METRO...TO EXTREME SERN KS AFTER 21Z. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY /GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT/ BY 21Z. PLAINS PROFILER AND PRESENCE OF JET STREAK CIRRUS SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL WAVE AXIS WAS SWINGING THROUGH CNTRL KS AT 18Z. ACCAS FIELD WAS EXPANDING OVER SE KS/WCNTRL MO...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. CONTINUED MOISTENING VIA ASCENT SHOULD ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 21Z. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WAS RECOVERING RAPIDLY AS CLOUD COVER ERODES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 60S. EXPECT 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH 45-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR YIELDING SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN OZARKS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT...BUT SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SRH SHOULD EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR A FEW TORNADOES BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES PRIMARILY WIND/HAIL THREATS LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 /GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT/ ? Greater than 80% chance that they actually issue a watch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 I'd really watch SE OK. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0518.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 19z update latest trends and RUC confirm moderate risk needs expanded into southern IL and surrounding areas..i would also hatch the tornadoes over eastern MO and S IL warm sector will expand north this afternoon with low-mid 70 temps and mid 60's dewpoints and winds should stay backed in these areas...LLj will incease to 60kts this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Sun is starting to peek through here in Evansville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 From Springfield MO, MCD THE CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFTER 21Z (4 PM CDT) THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT...WITH DISCRETE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL IN SIZE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...AS THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VEERED HOWEVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SOME...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. HOWEVER...AGAIN WITH THE SUPERCELLUAR STORM MODE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL STILL EXPECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 22, 2011 Author Share Posted April 22, 2011 Seems like there's a chance that a secondary round of storms could affect me early this evening, as the dryline eventually retreats and meets up with another boundary...at least that's what I got from looking at the last couple of runs of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 HRRR is trending best storms increasingly farther S into N Texas with each run, this morning they looked E of Ardmore, now S of the Red River, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 HRRR is trending best storms increasingly farther S into N Texas with each run, this morning they looked E of Ardmore, now S of the Red River, FWIW. I'm about five miles south of Ardmore now on I-35. Small CU field with nothing impressive as of yet. The HRRR performed poorly yesterday so I'm trying to use it cautiously, but I'm definitely watching that trend in case I need to head south. FWIW my live stream is up at TexasStormChasers.com/live - Something with the imap/sn code is messed up so its not showing me on SN streaming, but I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 some sign of convergence zone with bubbling CU well ahead of front over MO latest SREF pretty wide area of 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 It is a little difficult to see on a still image (so I circled it), but if you loop the visible satellite you can see the cirrus streak SPC was discussing from the wave approaching the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 22, 2011 Share Posted April 22, 2011 Looks like a cell is going up just east of Ft. Smith, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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