wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Ya the 12z 4km WRF run was pretty impressive and kept all the heavy precip in northern IL and out of southern WI If that turned out to be the case: Thankfully, some of the precipitation looks to be creeping into SW Wisconsin, so Wisconsin will be getting SOMETHING. However, the south tweak of the NAM doesn't sound good for Southern Wisconsinites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 This reminds me of an event in I believe either 2006 or 2007 that dropped around 6 inches of snow here. I think it was around April 5 or so and most of the snow came overnight into the morning. We lost power, and a number of spruce trees were toppled way over by the weight of the snow. Here's to tonight setting a new benchmark for late season snows, at least in more recent history. Was out doing some spring cleaning this afternoon. Got all the tools in for the night and ready for a fresh blanket. If we get to four we are going to get the sleds out early for one last ride. Good stuff. There was a few inches of snow on April 23 or 24 1967 (just after the big tornado outbreak)...other than that I'm not sure the last time that there was a "significant" accumulating snow in northern IL this late in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 850mb frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Looks like a tricky forecast, but Im ready for whatever. 2-4" seems to be the going call here. Im thinking rates will be the pro and obviously ground temps the con. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Slight north adjustment per DTX for QPF 073FXUS63 KDTX 180251 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1051 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 .UPDATE... ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THIS UPDATE WILL WORK IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL DATA BY SHIFTING SOME ACCUMULATION FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL ALSO MAKE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE QPF TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR BUT JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE THAT AREA MORE SNOWFALL WHILE NOT YET ADDING THEM TO THE ADVISORY. THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN THE SAME ELSEWHERE BUT PLAN TO HIT SLEET A LITTLE HARDER FOR LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE OVER IOWA SHOWING ALL THE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY AND A PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IN WV IMAGERY. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO FGEN RESPONSE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. FACTORS MENTIONED IN THE DAY SHIFT DISCUSSION REMAIN VALID WITH STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING LIKELY IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY, OTHER THAN ACCUMULATION VARIABLES RELATED TO GRASSY VS PAVED SURFACES, IS THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE BAND/CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. FOR NOW, FAVOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PIVOT POINT WITH THE BAND LEADING INTO METRO DETROIT BY SUNRISE, SETTING UP NEAR THE M-59/I-69 CORRIDOR, AND THEN MOVING BACK THROUGH THE DETROIT AREA AS SHORT WAVE SUPPORT SLIDES THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 DTX did a writeup on snowstorms April 10th or later: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=9964&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 DTX Advisory Update calling for 2-4" everywhere now...locally 5" south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 DTX adjusted everything northward (including a harder hitting sleet mention in the southern row of counties), but they stopped just shy of an adjustment worthy of a northward expansion of the WWA. And, UGH!!! They slightly delayed everything as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 15-20 dBZ reflectivity coming in. 43.7° F now with a dewpoint of 24.9° F. Tons of evap cooling aloft will probably moisten things up quick and send us below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 15-20 dBZ reflectivity coming in. 43.7° F now with a dewpoint of 24.9° F. Tons of evap cooling aloft will probably moisten things up quick and send us below freezing. I saw that, but none of the SW Wisconsin sites have been reporting any precip, so I wonder if it's just virga. Hopefully it's actually some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Precip is really getting going out in central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Have a long way to go here...still 46/36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 44 here with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 37/24 here, clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Temperatures are below 40 now in most places in Southeast Wisconsin. Precip type shouldn't be a huge issue, moisture likely will be. That said, maybe the slight northern trend DTW is using will happen across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 39/23...should arrive by 09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 32.5 here Snow comes after the sun rises it wont accumulate more then an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 What are you doing Badger Blizzard? The rain is not budging past Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 pretty good rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 What are you doing Badger Blizzard? The rain is not budging past Madison. Dry air is def on the attack. Dewpoint has stayed in the low 20s, temp has struggled to decrease to 41° F. Not gonna see even a raindrop till those numbers get closer together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Down to 41 here. Have already picked up over 0.2" of rain. If it were a month earlier it would be ripping pretty good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Temps continue to hold in the mid 40's here with -RA. Probably will end up with some light snow to end, but that's about it. Edit: Guess I should have check before posting...down to 41F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Coming up on 0.3" rain now. Back edge of the precip already east of Des Moines and moving quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Rate of evaporation still clearly exceeding the rate of precip. This might end up being a huge bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Rate of evaporation still clearly exceeding the rate of precip. This might end up being a huge bust... Yeah, I'm tired of models teasing me within 24 hours of an impending event. This is far from the first time. Remember that event, I think it was early March, where the storm shifted south but then made a surprise north shift within 24 hours, only to end up with a rain/snow mix in Northern Ilinois and nothing here? Then we have had numerous storms where we were on the borderline of a decent storm. Only the Blizzard really impressed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 RIght around 36 here. Dew very close to that. Light to moderate rain falling with some fog. Nothing mixing in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 37/24 right now here, gunna take a bit to moisten the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Nice bright band from around Monticello, IA eastward to around ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Temp down to 35. Light rain with some wet flakes mixing in. Edit: Down to 33. Almost all snow now and accumulating. Watching those heavy returns to my south and west creep this way . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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