Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 WE might reach 70 for the year YEY. LOL 70 degrees or 70 inches? Second one looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 My latest output pretty much showing a band of 3-5" across W. IA through Northern ILL to S. Wisconsin through the central parts of C. Michigan. have the highest amounts for the first 24 hours across the NE IA to N. ILL areas with 3-4" in that area. Our office is still calling for an inch for Milwaukee. The question is do I believe the 3-5 inches on your map or do I believe my local weather office? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 WE might reach 70 for the year YEY. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Our office is still calling for an inch for Milwaukee. The question is do I believe the 3-5 inches on your map or do I believe my local weather office? Oh, not going against what they have, they are the subject experts in that area. Guess it will be the case of which one will win out. For city specific, my output for Milwaukee proper is showing 3.8" Guess I will either bust or verify tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 RUC is less then impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 All day, the RUC has been waffling from N to S to more QPF to less QPF, etc, etc. RUC is less then impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Wow, I'm starting to get pretty excited. A real snowstorm in late April!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The thing to watch tonight is how much of the snow ends up being virga. 48/23 now. Kinda feels like a ski resort today with this sort of weather. Warm in the day and then a big dump of snow at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Minus well snow with how cold it has been. For us northerners, this is sort of like a deep south snow event in many aspects. A lot of uncertainties, marginal temperatures and high temperatures up at 50 the next day. This'll be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 000FXUS63 KDTX 172257 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 657 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011 .AVIATION... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING AND BRING AN END TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE A BURST OF LATE SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY FROM FLINT SOUTHWARD WITH ONSET ROUGHLY FROM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT NOON. THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION REMAINS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR DOWN TO ABOUT THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES MOST LIKELY AND RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. THE HEAVIEST BAND COULD PIVOT NORTH OF METRO AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER ONSET, SET UP NEAR PTK, AND THEN MOVE BACK THROUGH DTW DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH SNOWFALL RATE WILL HELP ENSURE ACCUMULATION EVEN ON RELATIVELY WARM PAVED SURFACES BEFORE THE SNOW DIMINISHES AND THEN ENDS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXCEPT FROM FNT NORTHWARD INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE IT WILL BE VFR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Just look at the radar fellow southern Wisconsinites, this entire part of the state is about to get dumped on. This is an insanely perfect setup for this time of year. I'll go 3-6" for Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Just look at the radar fellow southern Wisconsinites, this entire part of the state is about to get dumped on. This is an insanely perfect setup for this time of year. I'll go 3-6" for Madison. I wish I had that much confidence. I had it around noon time today, when most of the models were showing 0.5 inches of QPF or more, but it seems the QPF trends have gone down since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Minus well snow with how cold it has been. For us northerners, this is sort of like a deep south snow event in many aspects. A lot of uncertainties, marginal temperatures and high temperatures up at 50 the next day. This'll be fun! Might as well Good luck on the snow, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 M59 Special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 DVN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK IS FCST TO PROPAGATE E/SE AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT 12-18 HRS. WEAK LOWS AT SFC-850 MB WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES/BAROCLINIC ZONES. LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN IN RANGE OF 40-50 KTS BY LATE EVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INITIALLY AIMED AT THE CWA BEFORE VEERING INTO OHIO VALLEY TOWARD 12Z. MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING QUITE IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ALSO ROBUST ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF JET BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING AND EXITING THE FAR EAST BY 12Z-15Z MON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WHERE BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. SOME INDICATIONS OF INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL BANDED NATURE OF PCPN WITH ALSO FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF REALM. CONCERNS ARE WITH DRY/COLD RESERVOIR SITTING IMMEDIATELY TO OUR NORTH PER 12Z RAOBS AND ANALYSIS... WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 20S WITH EVEN SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AS SFC-925 MB FLOW VEERS TO NORTHEAST LATER TNGT IT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS IN RESULTING IN IDEAL EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL DOWN COLUMN FOR PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF HWY 30. 12Z NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW WITH DEEP SATURATION AND NEARLY ALL BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20. MODELS ALSO SHOWING IMPRESSIVE OMEGAS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MOD/HVY SNOW IN THE NORTH. DESPITE AIR/GROUND TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH IT BEING NIGHTFALL AND GIVEN INTENSITY/RATE IT WOULD EASILY OVERWHELM THIS AND ACCUMULATE. GARCIA METHOD WOULD SUPPORT 4-6 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR 12 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT. PROBLEMS ARE THIS WILL BE ABOUT 6-9 HRS AT MOST OF LIFT AND THIS DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR MELTING/COMPACTION. BOTTOM LINE... ANTICIPATE A BAND OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH... MOST LIKELY VICINITY OF HWY 20 ON NORTHWARD WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY AND COULDN/T RULE OUT ISOLD AMTS NEAR 4 INCHES VERY FAR NORTHEAST CWA. MOST OF THIS LIKELY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES... WITH ROADS MAINLY WET OR SLUSHY. WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL WITH AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AND IMPACTS... AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES... HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ATTIM AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND GRAPHICAL WX STORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Temps sure are cooling quickly. It went down from around 50 to 40 in the last couple hours. If the current precip in N Iowa moves due east, Southern Wisconsin may well get a good burst of moderate to perhaps heavy snow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 18z GFS has .80" liquid at DPA in 12hrs with this bullseye.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 18z GFS has .80" liquid at DPA in 12hrs with this bullseye.. The bullseye in terms of snow accumulations still looks to be the southern row of counties in Wisconsin into the very northern parts of the northern row of Illinois counties. Basically Rock, Walworth into Racine and Kenosha. DPA may be seeing the QPF bullseye, though if that's what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 The bullseye in terms of snow accumulations still looks to be the southern row of counties in Wisconsin into the very northern parts of the northern row of Illinois counties. Basically Rock, Walworth into Racine and Kenosha. DPA may be seeing the QPF bullseye, though if that's what you're talking about. I'm well aware of that, but that is some serious lift/ascent taking place and these heavier bands could cool the column faster and allow for some +SN, possibly even TSSN in some areas, a very tricky forecast. Dynamic cooling is going to work wonders with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm well aware of that, but that is some serious lift/ascent taking place and these heavier bands could cool the column faster and allow for some +SN, possibly even TSSN in some areas, a very tricky forecast. Dynamic cooling is going to work wonders with this one. Yeah, you talk about tricky, if the narrow band of heavy precip (likely to be snow) moves just 15 miles north or so, Milwaukee could get 6 inches. As it is, it is more likely to be 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Yeah, you talk about tricky, if the narrow band of heavy precip (likely to be snow) moves just 15 miles north or so, Milwaukee could get 6 inches. As it is, it is more likely to be 2 or 3 inches. I've seen events like these produce a half foot of snow in 6 hours, all comes down to how fast the column can cool and if a location can stay under a heavy band for a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 This reminds me of an event in I believe either 2006 or 2007 that dropped around 6 inches of snow here. I think it was around April 5 or so and most of the snow came overnight into the morning. We lost power, and a number of spruce trees were toppled way over by the weight of the snow. Here's to tonight setting a new benchmark for late season snows, at least in more recent history. Was out doing some spring cleaning this afternoon. Got all the tools in for the night and ready for a fresh blanket. If we get to four we are going to get the sleds out early for one last ride. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm well aware of that, but that is some serious lift/ascent taking place and these heavier bands could cool the column faster and allow for some +SN, possibly even TSSN in some areas, a very tricky forecast. Dynamic cooling is going to work wonders with this one. Some of that may be "contaminated" by the convective parameterization in the model, but I have little doubt there will be some good forcing in that area. In that vein, I had noticed that the 12Z 4km WRF wanted to produce some weak updrafts (2-4 m/s) in the precip zone (across some of the same areas outlined by the GFS), which would be more than enough to cause some "snow-island" effects and lightning.The time/height cross sections on the NAM Bufkit had also suggested some weak theta-e folding, suggesting the potential for some weak upright instability or at least some conditional symmetric instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Looks like the 0z NAM will be wetter here, still gotta look at the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Looks like the 0z NAM will be wetter here, still gotta look at the soundings. It shifted the axis south and is now in line with the GFS (Thus wetter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 It shifted the axis south and is now in line with the GFS (Thus wetter). I'm still trying to figure out possible amounts for here, given there will probably be some higher lollipop totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Had about 2-3" today will know the final by morning it came in rounds, accumulated and melted. Real autumn-esque day today, quite sad. Pushed my seasonal total to about 75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Some of that may be "contaminated" by the convective parameterization in the model, but I have little doubt there will be some good forcing in that area. In that vein, I had noticed that the 12Z 4km WRF wanted to produce some weak updrafts (2-4 m/s) in the precip zone (across some of the same areas outlined by the GFS), which would be more than enough to cause some "snow-island" effects and lightning.The time/height cross sections on the NAM Bufkit had also suggested some weak theta-e folding, suggesting the potential for some weak upright instability or at least some conditional symmetric instability. Ya the 12z 4km WRF run was pretty impressive and kept all the heavy precip in northern IL and out of southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 pretty cool stuff looking at fcst soundings for ORD off the 12z LSX WRF can see how quickly the column cools from 3-6z in the low levels once you start saturating from the top down and low-level winds go northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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