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April 17th-18th Late Season SNOW Event


Powerball

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I have a feeling MKX is going to have to change their forecast significantly in the afternoon shift. I believe they still think Milwaukee will get about 1 inch, and Kenosha and Racine 2 inches. Double those amounts or more sound more likely.

No.

The amounts they have out are high enough.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mkx

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No.

The amounts they have out are high enough.

http://www.crh.noaa....ry.php?site=mkx

I'm talking about the grid forecast. All day it has 40% chance of rain/snow for overnight, which based on the models is very bearish. The graphic you alluded to is pretty accurate, but the actual forecast will have to be fine-tuned. Also, I think within that area of 2-3 inches, there will be isolated amounts of 5-6 inches, which is worth mentioning.

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I'm talking about the grid forecast. All day it has 40% chance of rain/snow for overnight, which based on the models is very bearish. The graphic you alluded to is pretty accurate, but the actual forecast will have to be fine-tuned. Also, I think within that area of 2-3 inches, there will be isolated amounts of 5-6 inches, which is worth mentioning.

Within the main axis they have shown, they have likely probs... There is no issue with the forecast.

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It's good to see dtx has the heavier snow to the south and is only going with a few inches down south. Detroit has been hit hard everytime DTX has forecasted nothing-few inches. I like where we sit.

What.......THAT NEVER HAPPENS.....and they don't miss severe weather calls too....:whistle:....:whistle:....:whistle:....:whistle:

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GRR going bullish

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011)

(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF

COUNTIES FOR EXPECTED F-GEN EVENT OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE

NAM...SREF...GFS AND EURO ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING

POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING WITH VIGOROUS LAYER OF F-GEN AND

NEGATIVE EPV THAT TRANSLATES INTO IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BULLSEYE INTO THE

DGZ LATE TONIGHT. AS ALWAYS...THE TOUGH PART IS PINNING DOWN WHERE

THE BANDS WILL ALIGN. WE HAVE SEEN THESE EVENTS PUT DOWN QUICK SIX

PLUS INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST...AND THAT COULD WELL HAPPEN TONIGHT.

SO THE ADVISORY IS TO GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE PUBLIC AND ROAD

COMMISSIONS ON A SNOWY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

FORECAST AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME

COUNTIES COULD BE EITHER ADDED...TRIMMED...OR BUMPED UP TO A WARNING

LATER TONIGHT AS THING EVOLVE.

EXPECT THE WORST IMPACTS TO BE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE MONDAY

MORNING COMMUTE. BLOWING SNOW IS NOT A FACTOR. WITH TEMPS AROUND

30F DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIER SNOW...TREATED ROADS SHOULD REMAIN

CLEAR. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF NARROW BANDS THAT

COULD PUT DOWN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR RATES...LEADING TO SNOW AND SLUSH

BUILD UP EVEN ON TREATED ROADS. AGAIN...IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE

THIS WILL BE BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG I-94.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIX ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA

AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. WENT ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR

AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM AND GFS. HRRR RUC AND 20 KM REMAIN WELL

SOUTH OF THOSE TWO MODELS HOWEVER. 12Z EURO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD

COMPROMISE AND MATCHES GOING FORECAST FAIRLY WELL IN TERMS OF

HEAVIER QPF LOCATION.

F-GEN QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST ON MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING

OFF BY 18Z.

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DTX will be issuing a WWA for the same row of counties that IWX and GRR issued their WWA for.

2-4" for their southern two row of counties in the WWA and 1-3" for their northern row of counties in the WWA.

With amounts up to 5" possible and some sleet in the southern row of counties.

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