Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 NMM and ARW are also way too slow for my liking. They have the heaviest precipitation coming through during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I have a feeling MKX is going to have to change their forecast significantly in the afternoon shift. I believe they still think Milwaukee will get about 1 inch, and Kenosha and Racine 2 inches. Double those amounts or more sound more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I have a feeling MKX is going to have to change their forecast significantly in the afternoon shift. I believe they still think Milwaukee will get about 1 inch, and Kenosha and Racine 2 inches. Double those amounts or more sound more likely. No. The amounts they have out are high enough. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mkx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 No. The amounts they have out are high enough. http://www.crh.noaa....ry.php?site=mkx I'm talking about the grid forecast. All day it has 40% chance of rain/snow for overnight, which based on the models is very bearish. The graphic you alluded to is pretty accurate, but the actual forecast will have to be fine-tuned. Also, I think within that area of 2-3 inches, there will be isolated amounts of 5-6 inches, which is worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'm talking about the grid forecast. All day it has 40% chance of rain/snow for overnight, which based on the models is very bearish. The graphic you alluded to is pretty accurate, but the actual forecast will have to be fine-tuned. Also, I think within that area of 2-3 inches, there will be isolated amounts of 5-6 inches, which is worth mentioning. Within the main axis they have shown, they have likely probs... There is no issue with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 It's good to see dtx has the heavier snow to the south and is only going with a few inches down south. Detroit has been hit hard everytime DTX has forecasted nothing-few inches. I like where we sit. What.......THAT NEVER HAPPENS.....and they don't miss severe weather calls too................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 What.......THAT NEVER HAPPENS.....and they don't miss severe weather calls too................ LOL. I dont usually track severe weather around here but I'll take your word for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 HPC's updated QPF Map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 My latest output pretty much showing a band of 3-5" across W. IA through Northern ILL to S. Wisconsin through the central parts of C. Michigan. have the highest amounts for the first 24 hours across the NE IA to N. ILL areas with 3-4" in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Im going with 2-5" from the 94 corridor to I-69... Basically a line From Paw Paw to Windsor and Muskegon to Port Huron everywhere in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 GRR issued a WWA. Basically going 3-5" with amounts over 6" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yeah, that over 6" was interesting, guess due to the convective element, an isolated 6" lollypop is not out of the question GRR issued a WWA. Basically going 3-5" with amounts over 6" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 And I believe that WWA is only for the two southern row of counties in GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 GRR going bullish .SHORT TERM...(400 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011)(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR EXPECTED F-GEN EVENT OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM...SREF...GFS AND EURO ARE BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING WITH VIGOROUS LAYER OF F-GEN AND NEGATIVE EPV THAT TRANSLATES INTO IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BULLSEYE INTO THE DGZ LATE TONIGHT. AS ALWAYS...THE TOUGH PART IS PINNING DOWN WHERE THE BANDS WILL ALIGN. WE HAVE SEEN THESE EVENTS PUT DOWN QUICK SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST...AND THAT COULD WELL HAPPEN TONIGHT. SO THE ADVISORY IS TO GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE PUBLIC AND ROAD COMMISSIONS ON A SNOWY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. KEEP IN MIND THAT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SOME COUNTIES COULD BE EITHER ADDED...TRIMMED...OR BUMPED UP TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT AS THING EVOLVE. EXPECT THE WORST IMPACTS TO BE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BLOWING SNOW IS NOT A FACTOR. WITH TEMPS AROUND 30F DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIER SNOW...TREATED ROADS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF NARROW BANDS THAT COULD PUT DOWN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR RATES...LEADING TO SNOW AND SLUSH BUILD UP EVEN ON TREATED ROADS. AGAIN...IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THIS WILL BE BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES ARE ALONG I-94. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME MIX ALONG THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. WENT ALL SNOW FOR NOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NAM AND GFS. HRRR RUC AND 20 KM REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THOSE TWO MODELS HOWEVER. 12Z EURO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AND MATCHES GOING FORECAST FAIRLY WELL IN TERMS OF HEAVIER QPF LOCATION. F-GEN QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST ON MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF BY 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 RUC showing some insane UVV's, although I'm sure all that wont be snow, also has a stronger LLJ than the NAM HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 IWX issued a WWA for their Michigan counties They're going with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 HPC bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 HPC bullish... From what I've observed in past events, Peterson is a pretty bullish forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 DTX will be issuing a WWA for the same row of counties that IWX and GRR issued their WWA for. 2-4" for their southern two row of counties in the WWA and 1-3" for their northern row of counties in the WWA. With amounts up to 5" possible and some sleet in the southern row of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 If this was winter I wouldn't be too happy about this. Talk about a near miss for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 MKX is going with 2-4" across their southern CWA, though they're still worried the drier ECMWF will win out, thus their amounts would be overdone. They said ratios will be around 8:1. They didn't mention anything about a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 If this pans out like the rest of the winter, we'll be seeing 8" spots in SEMI tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 If this pans out like the rest of the winter, we'll be seeing 8" spots in SEMI tomorrow Nowcasting once again will show where the bands setup. Atleast the rush hour doesn't look to be impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Nowcasting once again will show where the bands setup. Atleast the rush hour doesn't look to be impacted. Incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 Atleast the rush hour doesn't look to be impacted. Probably not the afternon rush hour. The morning rush hour will definitely be impacted, especially the latter portion of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'm going to pass on this nuisance snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Incorrect Must have misread the hours on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'm going to pass on this nuisance snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 WE might reach 70 for the year YEY. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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