Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 This is the exact opposite of a few days ago, where the GFS plowed the front through and the euro kept it south....go figure. I think we know the Euro will be correct again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I think we know the Euro will be correct again Euro tries to get it by my hood in the aftn, but I think I'm screwed most of the day. I'd feel better down by NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 This is the exact opposite of a few days ago, where the GFS plowed the front through and the euro kept it south....go figure. NAM actually was a nice compromise which worked out well last time. NAM is the coldest this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Indeed. Hodographs look great. NW NJ into E and C PA could rock. Backed winds take us pretty much out of the game with a marine layer. the track of the mid-level low and the strong mid-level ridging to the southeast look ideal for a severe weather outbreak....the time of the year sucks unfortunately with the marine layer. The GFS has dewpoints in the upper 60s for TTN on Wednesday afternoon...that could be slightly overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 the track of the mid-level low and the strong mid-level ridging to the southeast look ideal for a severe weather outbreak....the time of the year sucks unfortunately with the marine layer. The GFS has dewpoints in the upper 60s for TTN on Wednesday afternoon...that could be slightly overdone. Yeah for PA and even upstate NY they could really get a nasty round of storms if they destabilize enough. In NE getting severe in April is very tough especially with S/SSE winds. Backed winds crank up low level shear but they also mitigate svr threat in NE with the wind of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 wow...NAM is cold even into PA...NAM has temperatures in the 40s most of the day in TTN with overcast....GFS is 72/68 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 wow...NAM is cold even into PA...NAM has temperatures in the 40s most of the day in TTN with overcast....GFS is 72/68 lol. lol yeah the NAM is brutal. As Scooter mentioned it's funny because the last event we saw the NAM sort of in the middle with the GFS surging the warmth north. Everything is reversed this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 lol yeah the NAM is brutal. As Scooter mentioned it's funny because the last event we saw the NAM sort of in the middle with the GFS surging the warmth north. Everything is reversed this time. We're 54-60hrs out on the NAM, but usually under 48 hrs, we have an idea with these type of situations. Could be one of those fronts that hangs up near or just north of I-90, but I'm hoping it comes trough in the aftn to avoid the fog disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 We're 54-60hrs out on the NAM, but usually under 48 hrs, we have an idea with these type of situations. Could be one of those fronts that hangs up near or just north of I-90, but I'm hoping it comes trough in the aftn to avoid the fog disaster. I want Wiz to have a meltdown when the tornado watch only includes Litchfield County and not his backyard. Or better yet a poorly thought up chase in W CT/SE NY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 i've noticed the NAM to be too far south with warm fronts in this time range the SREF looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 for what it's worth, the new 12z NAM is still hanging up the warm front south of New England during the day on Wednesday. I still wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated convection north of the warm front given the dynamic set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 for what it's worth, the new 12z NAM is still hanging up the warm front south of New England during the day on Wednesday. I still wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated convection north of the warm front given the dynamic set-up. It'll come around but not until 00z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I assume we are onto the next (Thur) event highly flagged by the 00z Euro in particular - That warm frontal position would be favored N given the teleconnector layout. Not so sure about that extended range powerhouse eastern ridge depicted by the Euro. I am curious what the Euro ensemble derived NAO and PNA is, because the GFS computation could not be in any more opposite agreement with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I assume we are onto the next (Thur) event highly flagged by the 00z Euro in particular - That warm frontal position would be favored N given the teleconnector layout. Not so sure about that extended range powerhouse eastern ridge depicted by the Euro. I am curious what the Euro ensemble derived NAO and PNA is, because the GFS computation could not be in any more opposite agreement with that. Big Rocky Mtn/High Plains trough with a trough in the Davis Strait as well. However, we have a pretty strong ridge poking into the east side of Greenland. Verbatim, the mass fields are warm....but we are way out there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Big Rocky Mtn/High Plains trough with a trough in the Davis Strait as well. However, we have a pretty strong ridge poking into the east side of Greenland. Verbatim, the mass fields are warm....but we are way out there in time. It's a TORCH coming next week. TORCH!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 It's a TORCH coming next week. TORCH!!!!! Oh god, it's begun... Bring it on Blizzy, bring it on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Big Rocky Mtn/High Plains trough with a trough in the Davis Strait as well. However, we have a pretty strong ridge poking into the east side of Greenland. Verbatim, the mass fields are warm....but we are way out there in time. So in otherwords, the Euro enesmbles are at odds with the GFS' ?? ...If that is true it will be interesting to see which verifies... Prolly be split down the boring middle - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 for what it's worth, the new 12z NAM is still hanging up the warm front south of New England during the day on Wednesday. I still wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated convection north of the warm front given the dynamic set-up. yeah given that synopsis at the surface there is no way any boundary will get N of central Jersy ...perhaps even farther S on Wed... 1024 non-opposed polar high slipping E through Ontario... yuck yuck yuck. Cold, raw, miserable overruning puke in the low to mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 So in otherwords, the Euro enesmbles are at odds with the GFS' ?? ...If that is true it will be interesting to see which verifies... Prolly be split down the boring middle - The euro and GFS ensembles look similar imo around d10. The euro ensembles are warmer verbatim, but both models advertise big warmth nearby...if not perhaps overhead. But we know how that can go. I'll wait until we're three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 The euro and GFS ensembles look similar imo around d10. The euro ensembles are warmer verbatim, but both models advertise big warmth nearby...if not perhaps overhead. But we know how that can go. I'll wait until we're three days out. the GFS came a little further north with the warm front on wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 the GFS came a little further north with the warm front on wednesday Yeah it did. Still keeps me in the soup, but hopefully it can blow by during the aftn. Could be some interesting wx from NJ on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Yeah it did. Still keeps me in the soup, but hopefully it can blow by during the aftn. Could be some interesting wx from NJ on south. the euro is even further north and warmer i remember the NAM showing 50's for this area before the recent torch and EWR hit 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Yeah it did. Still keeps me in the soup, but hopefully it can blow by during the aftn. Could be some interesting wx from NJ on south. Euro torches all of us Wed. Who knows if we see any storms since front comes thru at night..but Euro will have you laying out and tanning Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Euro torches all of us Wed. Who knows if we see any storms since front comes thru at night..but Euro will have you laying out and tanning Wed. Barely BOS and Ray and his weenie are bundled up. It could be one of those things where it blows by early aftn or something. Not holding my breath on it around here, but I'm not ruling it out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Barely BOS and Ray and his weenie are bundled up. It could be one of those things where it blows by early aftn or something. Not holding my breath on it around here, but I'm not ruling it out either. Looks like CT rips up to 75-80ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Looks like CT rips up to 75-80ish Eh, I'm not sold on big warmth, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 EC/NAM would suggest a high for me on wed somewhere between 37-42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 EC/NAM would suggest a high for me on wed somewhere between 37-42 Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 EC/NAM would suggest a high for me on wed somewhere between 37-42 It may be another one of those late day (near midnight) highs where we spike to 45-50F after the fropa.Saturday looks miserable on the EC as well. Wrong time of the year for all of these overrunning systems with cold air wedged in at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 It may be another one of those late day (near midnight) highs where we spike to 45-50F after the fropa. Saturday looks miserable on the EC as well. Wrong time of the year for all of these overrunning systems with cold air wedged in at the sfc. Maybe some sn/fzra for the mountains on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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