Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Chance for t'storms later today


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 208
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late.

Yeah...a few hours sooner and I think it would've been more interesting.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late.

Yeah mid level lapse rates are very steep with the cold pool moving in and water vapor loop shows the s/w quite well. Maybe a 45 knot wind gust in the Hudson Valley?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wiz said chance of TStorms, both of you Phail, TStorms in progress

Yeah we are having pretty intense lightning and thunder down here in Westchester...the cells near the CT shoreline look reasonably intense. I'm surprised since it's only 47F but these are some decent boomers, Wiz FTW. Rain is only light, luckily, since we had over 2" rainfall last night...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM actually worked out really well in the last situation like this last Monday.

Don't have time to make much of a post b/c I have to be at work at 8:00 but I didn't see the Euro (which sounds good to me) but the NAM/GFS are really gung-ho on not bringing the warm front all the way through and right now I would bet my chickens on that not really occurring. I think the warm front may get hung up somewhere across our region...plus I'm not a big fan of how the system is actually weakening as it moves through the upper-midwest and into Canada.

I could see some severe potential across parts of PA/NJ and down into MD though, especially just south of the warm front if they can destabilize enough but up for our area I'm not too excited, at least right now.

While we can get severe in April it's very difficult and this type of setup is not something that would really be conducive for severe wx in our area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gfs soundings look pretty tasty for PA/NJ for a tornado threat. CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg with some steep mid-level lapse rates and backed surface flow with an LLJ.

Indeed. Hodographs look great. NW NJ into E and C PA could rock.

Backed winds take us pretty much out of the game with a marine layer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ballsy forecast. GFS and NAM are chilly in fact NAM 2m temps are in the mid 40s on Wednesday!

Euro is much warmer with the warm front plowing on through.

This is the exact opposite of a few days ago, where the GFS plowed the front through and the euro kept it south....go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...