weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 While sfc temperatures will not be very warm (only in the 50's to lower 60's) and moisture will be lacking (dewpoints in the 40's and dropping) a potent s/w will be moving through the area later this afternoon as well as a very strong cold pool (500mb temps nearing -30C!). There should be a good amount of forcing from the s/w and from some potent jet energy. The region should be in the LFQ of a 80-100 kt ULJ and 60-80 kt MLJ (the MLJ will be increasing as the afternoon goes on to as much as 80-100 knots). This could pool aloft combined with any surface heating will create a fairly steep lapse rate environment. In fact, ML lapse rates could be anywhere from 7-8 C/KM. The combination of a very steep ML lapse rate environment coupled with daytime heating will allow for some weak instability to develop by late afternoon. We could see several hundred J/KG of Cape develop by late afternoon. With increasing winds aloft and an increasing LLJ this will also yield to some fairly high helicity values with 0-1km helicity around 100-200 m2s2 and 0-3km helicity values around 200-300 m2s2. This helicity could also help with the potential for any storms to produce some hail if the updrafts can become strong enough. The better threat for storms, however, may be just off to our west as the timing for our area may be a tad too late. By the time the s/w gets close to our area we will be well past peak heating and the sun will be setting. However, in these type of setups the instability is more derived from the steep lapse rates and instability can be more elevated. If we are able to get convection to develop if any of the updrafts are strong enough we could definitely see some small hail...it's not out of the question that one or two cells produces large hail (around 1''). Cold pools aloft can be very fun, especially in the late spring/summer when we get sfc temperatures into the 70's/80s and dewpoints are into the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 I was waiting for your weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I was thinking about your weenie. How is the Whale doing? Wait, don't answer that. Sun is out here... sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 How is the Whale doing? Wait, don't answer that. Sun is out here... sort of Horrible, they are down 2-0 in the series. Game 3 is tonight at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 We've been upgraded to a SEE TEXT! Although the SEE TEXT is for wind, nothing for hail. ...NERN U.S... DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR VORT...SFC HEATING...AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS/SMALL BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR SMALL HAIL UNTIL SUNSET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 We've been upgraded to a SEE TEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 "Upgraded to SEE TEXT" only in new england lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 TTs actually jump into the upper 50's to near 60 by 00z !! This is the type of situation, with an upper level cold pool, that New England usually cashes in on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 No moisture No temps But we have lift, minor instability, and a cold pool. oh and lapse rates Scattered thunderstorms with hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 We've been upgraded to a SEE TEXT! Goodnight. We'll let you know what happened when you wake up later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 No moisture No temps But we have lift, minor instability, and a cold pool. oh and lapse rates Scattered thunderstorms with hail sometimes that is the best we can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 TTs actually jump into the upper 50's to near 60 by 00z !! This is the type of situation, with an upper level cold pool, that New England usually cashes in on I love when TTs jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I love when TTs jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Its a see text wiz.. literally a joke of an event and your excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Its a see text wiz.. literally a joke of an event and your excited lol I disagree. This won't be a huge severe weather outbreak, but seriously, some of our most exciting events have occurred under no more than a "see text" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I disagree. This won't be a huge severe weather outbreak, but seriously, some of our most exciting events have occurred under no more than a "see text" If you consider an exciting event two severe thunderstorms then sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'd take one good supercell with large tornado and grapefruit size hail tearing through MA from Berks to BOS...and nothing else entire spring/summer, over 100 of these crappy cold pool sprinkle/iso thunder pea size hail disasters. lol At least it is not snowing, on the bright side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 You don't have to have a major outbreak for an event to be excited. Most of you still get excited over 1-3'' of snow don't you? Especially if it's one of the first events of the season. There should be some storms around later on this afternoon and into the evening and given what we have in place anyone who sees a storm certainly has a shot at seeing some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 Goodnight. We'll let you know what happened when you wake up later tonight. I just woke up. If anything happens I'll miss it b/c I'll be at the Whale game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Did y'all see this video from yesterday? The guy casually talking on the phone as the TOR goes right over his car..LOL insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Did y'all see this video from yesterday? The guy casually talking on the phone as the TOR goes right over his car..LOL insane "Yep there goes the roof" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 "Yep there goes the roof" I don't understand how he can just stay there and not drive away, I'd be freaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I don't understand how he can just stay there and not drive away, I'd be freaking... I know. He was so calm. "Yep, this is going to pass right over me." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I know. He was so calm. "Yep, this is going to pass right over me." I would love to see a tornado though, have never had the pleasure. You need to time travel back to 1953...the anniversary of that event is coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I know. He was so calm. "Yep, this is going to pass right over me." Haha he's like oh it's not one of those ones that'll blow you a way it's just taking roofs off houses and blowing up transformers as it's headed right for me... Incredible footage, I'm surprised it wasn't like twister where it got all calm in the "eye" of the tornado (/sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Picture link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 It was near Walgreens, so he probably had just gotten his medication, taken a heavy dose, and was just chilling in his car as the tornado struck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I just woke up. If anything happens I'll miss it b/c I'll be at the Whale game. Wiz where's my svr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Wiz where's my svr? I had a few cumulus this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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