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Northern Plains Possible Snowstorm/Apr 19-20


prinsburg_wx

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Yet another high qpf storm event seems likely late monday through wednesday. The potential exists for heavy wet snow & high winds for parts of the Dakotas, MN & WI. Soundings are quite cold so precip type would indicate predominantly snow on the northwest edge of the precip shield.

Still a few days out but both the 110417 00Z NAM/GFS support the winter storm potential.

78hr NAM & GFS

post-252-0-95022100-1303013857.gif

post-252-0-26116300-1303013870.gif

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Going to need to watch how high quality the phase is. A delicate balance here--but the Euro has consistently been faster with the lead wave ejecting ahead of the northern stream trough. Latest GFS suggests that potential too. For now it is a threat--but I am not convinced of a big storm just yet.

I had big doubts on starting this thread, "my 1st thread on here"...euro was on it's own until the GFS came in tonight. I guess i just learned not to go against DR. NO. :axe:

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I had big doubts on starting this thread, "my 1st thread on here"...euro was on it's own until the GFS came in tonight. I guess i just learned not to go against DR. NO. :axe:

Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled.

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Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled.

I guess we'll see...still have the ggem/nogaps...haha. How was your trip to Boulder?

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I guess we'll see...still have the ggem/nogaps...haha. How was your trip to Boulder?

I am still in Boulder :) I am using my friends netbook and had to glance at the weather. After seeing the threats I had to log on and discuss a little haha. Boulder, CO is pretty awesome though. Saw NCAR and we did some hiking in the Flatirons and Rocky Mountain National Park.

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I am still in Boulder :) I am using my friends netbook and had to glance at the weather. After seeing the threats I had to log on and discuss a little haha. Boulder, CO is pretty awesome though. Saw NCAR and we did some hiking in the Flatirons and Rocky Mountain National Park.

Awesome, i'm hoping to get out to the black hills in June..be my big shabang this year. Anyway, if this storm flops then i'm ready for severe wx season to kick in up here and the hell with snow til november.

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Awesome, i'm hoping to get out to the black hills in June..be my big shabang this year. Anyway, if this storm flops then i'm ready for severe wx season to kick in up here and the hell with snow til november.

The Black Hills are a lovely area. Highly underrated. I suggest the Harney Peak trail--not too hard--and it goes to over 7000 feet. Watch the summer slope flow induced convection there--really tricky and can catch you by surprise.

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Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled.

MPX huggin the GFS...this is just to my east.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY THEN
 CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW OR SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE
 WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT
 ARE NOT PLOWED OR TREATED.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE SNOW COULD BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET.

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MPX went advisory level with a general 3-6 inches foretasted for the area. This could a real pain in the the butt to pin point the the exact location of the heaviest band, 18z came in weaker with the low, but a lot wetter. 00z runs will be interesting to see.

18z NAM

Weaker also coinciding with further SE?

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I wonder how Tropical Cromartie is faring? As much as I like warm weather, as long as there is some sunshine I'm cool, but that dude has got to have his hands on the trigger by now. gun_bandana.gif

I think the fact he hasn't posted since the severe weather of a week ago says pretty much everything you need to know.:whistle:

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