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December 1-3 lake effect snow event

lakeeffectkid383

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Well, from a few days ago, the "main" movement of the bands has transpired pretty close to what I thought.....placement of the bands over the last day was a bit off:

7-1K82.gif

Fun week coming up!!! I'm sure a thread or two in the "Upstate" region will be the envy of many a Mid-Atlantic'ers! (Sorry to the Upsate folks that miss out next week :( )

More thoughts later tonight when some of the models resolve the remaining details a bit more.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

A helpful Map from WKTV on the wind flow direction across Lake Ontario

Generally speaking, the above map works well as a first approximation. However, there are many caveats that need to be taken when forecasting band location/orientation wrt: 1.) An often times hard to determine mean level "steering" flow. 2.) Interactions between bands 3.) Other geographical(topography) influences 4.) Shoreline convergence effects 5.) Multiple connections from the upper lakes.......and many other smaller scale phenomena. These items all should be accounted for when forecasting band orientation and placement.

When in Parish, I one of my heaviest 6 hour totals (30") on a due west (270) wind, due to the assemblance of a shoreline band commencing before a long axis/center lake band could establish itself, thus the Pulaski-Redfield "normal" 270 dump zone, was displaced 15 miles to the south. Normally, 285ish is the preferred direction for a Central Oswego Co. hit.

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Andyace

Andyace

Posted
Posted

Generally speaking, the above map works well as a first approximation. However, there are many caveats that need to be taken when forecasting band location/orientation wrt an often times hard to determine mean level "steering" flow. Interactions between bands, other geographical(topography) influences, shoreline convergence effects, multiple connections from the upper lakes, all should be accounted for when forecasting bands.

When in Parish, I one of my heaviest 6 hour totals (30") on a due west (270) wind, due to the assemblance of a shoreline band commencing before a long axis/center lake band could establish itself, thus the Pulaski-Redfield "normal" 270 dump zone, was displaced 15 miles to the south. Normally, 285ish is the preferred direction for a Central Oswego Co. hit.

I posted it more as a general reference to show peoples location. To get an I dea when they may get LES

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

hey LEK what was keeping this band from moving too far north into the city? every time it moved north it looked like it hit some kinda imaginary wall and just stall there,the winds were from SW too :unsure:

maybe this?

"250/260 WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INTERCEPT 230/240 LAND WINDS...AND

MAINTAIN STEADY STATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE."

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

hey LEK what was keeping this band from moving too far north into the city? every time it moved north it looked like it hit some kinda imaginary wall and just stall there,the winds were from SW too :unsure:

maybe this?

"250/260 WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INTERCEPT 230/240 LAND WINDS...AND

MAINTAIN STEADY STATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE."

Low level convergence with parallel shorelines is tought to overcome via subtle shifts in the winds just above the boundary layer.....Now, "funnel" the shoreline to a point (as is the case on the eastern L. Erie "tip", and you have an even more forceful geographic "stabilizer" wrt movement.

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted

Impressive totals!:snowman:

…ERIE COUNTY…

DEPEW 42.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

BUFFALO 39.0 1000 AM 12/3 SE CORNER BUFFALO

ELMA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

LANCASTER 29.5 1059 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

LANCASTER 29.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 24.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

MARILLA 23.0 800 AM 12/3 SOUTHERN PORTION

LANCASTER 22.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

BLASDELL 20.3 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

BUFFALO 20.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS – FIRST WARD

WALES 16.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

AKRON 14.0 900 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

ELMA CENTER 13.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

EAST AURORA 10.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

BUFFALO 9.2 800 AM 12/3 AIRPORT

BOSTON 7.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

GLENWOOD 6.5 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

WILLIAMSVILLE 5.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

CLARENCE CENTER 4.5 800 AM 12/3 SPOTTER

WILLIAMSVILLE 2.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

TONAWANDA 1.2 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

KENMORE 1.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

And totals are in. The winner is 42 inches in Depew!!

...ERIE COUNTY...

DEPEW 42.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

BUFFALO 39.0 1000 AM 12/3 SE CORNER BUFFALO

ELMA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

LANCASTER 29.5 1059 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

LANCASTER 29.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST SENECA 24.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

MARILLA 23.0 800 AM 12/3 SOUTHERN PORTION

LANCASTER 22.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

BLASDELL 20.3 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

BUFFALO 20.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS - FIRST WARD

WALES 16.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

AKRON 14.0 900 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

ELMA CENTER 13.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE

EAST AURORA 10.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

BUFFALO 9.2 800 AM 12/3 AIRPORT

BOSTON 7.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

GLENWOOD 6.5 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

WILLIAMSVILLE 5.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

CLARENCE CENTER 4.5 800 AM 12/3 SPOTTER

WILLIAMSVILLE 2.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

TONAWANDA 1.2 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

KENMORE 1.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS

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winter_rules

winter_rules

Posted
Posted

This always confuses me but I see it quite often. The lake band has drifted south of my area and broken up, but they increased the forecast? It shocks me how often this happens. Or they say "additional 4-8" when the band is clearly shutting down/moving out. I realize this states a total accumulation, but I'd be shocked to see an additional 4" when I get home after our 1" last night. Just venting.....

This Afternoon: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

I assume it's because the forecasting is done in grids not small enough for lake effect?

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

In amount yeah...but dec. 1995 featured a more intense band with heavier snowfall rates.

Take a look at the more widespread area of 35 DBZ on Dec. 10th, 1995.

hilliker10.jpeg

I have fond, fond memories of this event as a 12-year-old kid living in Williamsville. I was an amateur when it comes to taking accurate snowfall measurements at the time, but I measured close to 40" in my backyard. To this day, it remains the single largest snowstorm I have ever witnessed.

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ontario squalls

ontario squalls

Posted
Posted

Generally speaking, the above map works well as a first approximation. However, there are many caveats that need to be taken when forecasting band location/orientation wrt: 1.) An often times hard to determine mean level "steering" flow. 2.) Interactions between bands 3.) Other geographical(topography) influences 4.) Shoreline convergence effects 5.) Multiple connections from the upper lakes.......and many other smaller scale phenomena. These items all should be accounted for when forecasting band orientation and placement.

When in Parish, I one of my heaviest 6 hour totals (30") on a due west (270) wind, due to the assemblance of a shoreline band commencing before a long axis/center lake band could establish itself, thus the Pulaski-Redfield "normal" 270 dump zone, was displaced 15 miles to the south. Normally, 285ish is the preferred direction for a Central Oswego Co. hit.

I usually do best on a 260-270 wind, whereas the above diagram would have me doing best on a 275 wind.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

bluegill_s.png

My estimate it is about 4 Miles between 3' and 6". The band was even thinner than usual this time. It also appears that the radar image that showed the band stopping about 3 miles inland it may have been wrong. As I found out last year the nexrad doesn't handle blowing snow and snow from low based clouds very well.

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WeatherTree

WeatherTree

Posted
Posted

Sorry havent had a much of a chance to post, as Ive reported most things in my local thread here in SW Ohio, and had to sleep after the 7 hr drive back home last night, but here is a quick review of the details:

We stayed at the red roof off I-90 at Hamburg Wednesday night, and had roughly 14" when we checked out at noon Thursday. We counted a total of 15 cc lightning strikes and 4 very loud cracking rumbles. We took an interesting drive up NY 5 near the outer harbor Wednesday around 10pm and encountered some 3"/hr rates right off the lake as the plume beat down on W Seneca and vicinity. At check out Thursday we drove up 62 to Lackawanna and positioned ourselves at BellaPizza. Conditions were unreal there, we couldnt travel any further north b/c 62 was closed on the northside of Lackawanna(consistent with the closing of 90 to the immediate east and ene) So we just sat and watched the plume continue to reign(as the plume had moved out of Hamburg at 6am we had no choice but to get as far north as possible to stay in the good stuff) Once in Lackawanna at 1230, there was roughly 20" on the ground. We sat there until 7pm as another 7" had fallen. Total accum there was at or above 28" the most I've seen on the ground in my lifetime(exceeding the 21" I received back home in 2004) Drifts were to 5 and 6' in several locations. No thunder/cc on Thursday as lift had decreased, but definitely no reduction in amazement. This event is to this point, the most amazing winter weather event I have ever witnessed(second only to tornadoes).

Here are a few pics of over 120 that were taken NW of Hamburg Wed night and Thursday in Lackawanna.

dscn0443h.jpg

dscn04440.jpg

dscn0449n.jpg

dscn0480d.jpg

dscn04550.jpg

dscn0426.jpg

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