lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Also looks like the band MAY being widening over the lake to out SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Impressive stuff. Anyone have any good pictures from out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Impressive stuff. Anyone have any good pictures from out there? These pics are from between 8-9pm so theres a good 4 more inches on top of what these pics show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Might I add in the above pics the driveway was plowed so yes it doesnt look like theres 12 inches of snow. Like I said 17 inches in WS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Band has crept just a bit north, so I'm now in the northern edge with light snow. Nice to not be totally shut out from the fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Band has crept just a bit north, so I'm now in the northern edge with light snow. Nice to not be totally shut out from the fun.... I'm glad that it's staying over the southern suburbs.I hope it stays over west Seneca for hours to come. Don Paul said it may not shift south tomorrow like it was expected to which means the totals if that happens may be higher then the 2-3 feet forecasted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 More pics.... between 16-20 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm glad that it's staying over the southern suburbs.I hope it stays over west Seneca for hours to come. Don Paul said it may not shift south tomorrow like it was expected to which means the totals if that happens may be higher then the 2-3 feet forecasted now. I honestly don't expect to see a dramatic southward shift until sometime tomorrow evening. The mean h85 wind direction through at least 00z tomorrow evening is expected to oscillate between 255-265 degrees....which will allow the band to wiggle back and forth between the south towns and southern portions of the immediate metro area. If anyone is going to get three feet, it will likely be somewhere in the Hamburg-Orchard Park-West Seneca triangle. Really amazing event unfolding. I think a lot of us underestimated the true potential here...at least I certainly did. I guess you don't necessarily need "extreme" instability to generate prolific amounts of snow. Moderate instability combined with a saturated or near-saturated boundary layer below h7 and a steady well-aligned wind averaging less than 35kts at h85 will get the job done. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 1 more pic. Foregot to mention my gf says the piles on the side of the road are already EASILY halfway up her body and shes 5 foot 8. (no thats not my gf in the pic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 WRF 4-panel ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Just wanted to do a pic comparison from about 5pm this aftenoon till now. pretty amazing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The only thing probably preventing this from being an even bigger event is the fact that the greatest lift appears to be centered below the dendritic growth layer...at least on the bufkit cross sections, which may not be the best representation of the true state of the atmosphere but is probably the closest we'll come for now! With most of the omega centered below that layer, I suspect the ratios aren't as high as they could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 My girlfriend came up with measurements of 16.9, 17.3, 22.1 , 18.0 and 16.7 respectivley. She says she doesnt know the average and shes too tired to do it so I have to do it and it looks to be 18.38. So I’d say 18 inches in West Seneca as of about 12:10pm 18.5 inches reported in Lancaster as of midnight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thryway now closed in ALL lanes past exit 53 =] heres why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thryway now closed in ALL lanes past exit 53 =] heres why... Yeah absolutely insane out there. About 15-16 inches here near Mckinley Mall/ Target area in Orchard Park. Coming down in buckets still. Here is a video of a lightning n thunder off my back window. Play in 720p HD for good quality. It is at 1 min 5 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looking at the latest guidance...I think downtown, North Buffalo, and perhaps Tonawanda and Kenmore, etc. has a very good chance of getting clocked for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The only thing probably preventing this from being an even bigger event is the fact that the greatest lift appears to be centered below the dendritic growth layer...at least on the bufkit cross sections, which may not be the best representation of the true state of the atmosphere but is probably the closest we'll come for now! With most of the omega centered below that layer, I suspect the ratios aren't as high as they could be. I don't know, the 0Z sounding looks good to me, especially since there is visible higher convective bursts on RADAR and with the steepest lapse rates directly underneath the inversion, the beefiest omega would be directly through the favorable snow crystal growth zone, at least under convective bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I don't know, the 0Z sounding looks good to me, especially since there is visible higher convective bursts on RADAR and with the steepest lapse rates directly underneath the inversion, the beefiest omega would be directly through the favorable snow crystal growth zone, at least under convective bursts. good point...I think Kulaginman was referencing the omega on the NAM and local WRF models...which shows the core of the omega near 900mb...which would be below the dendritic snow crystal growth layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 21 inches in west seneca. The snow has really let up now and radar shows the band has really weakened in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 " SNOWFALL REPORTS SO FAR (3 AM)...FROM THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WHICH BEGAN EARLY WED AFTERNOON (EXCLUDING THE 2-4 INCH SYNOPTIC SNOW WED MORNING) SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 12 TO 16 INCHES FROM WEST SENECA AND SOUTH LANCASTER TO ALDEN...WITH ALMOST AS MUCH IN HAMBURG. BAND ACTUALLY LIFTED NORTH OF THE SOUTHTOWNS WED EVENING GIVING THEM A BREAK. THE NORTHERN CUTOFF WAS REMARKABLE...WITH NOTHING AT MAIN ST IN WILLIAMSVILLE OR DELAWARE PARK IN BUF TO 3 INCHES AT AIRPORT TO 11 INCHES IN NORTH LANCASTER...ALL WITHIN A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 5 MILES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Finally yes "LOCATIONS: NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES...PRIMARILY THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SKI COUNTRY THIS MORNING BUT MOVING NORTH TO THE CITY AND EASTERN SUBURBS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah absolutely insane out there. About 15-16 inches here near Mckinley Mall/ Target area in Orchard Park. Coming down in buckets still. Here is a video of a lightning n thunder off my back window. Play in 720p HD for good quality. It is at 1 min 5 seconds. First post.....coming in with a bang.....!!! NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Models have at least another foot falling in areas that already have close to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ...ERIE COUNTY... ALDEN 23.0 708 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE MILLGROVE DEPEW 20.0 615 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE LANCASTER 19.0 445 AM 12/2 SOUTH- NWS EMPLOYEE MARILLA 17.5 700 AM 12/2 HAMBURG 16.5 707 AM 12/2 LAKEVIEW SPOTTER LANCASTER 16.5 200 AM 12/2 NORTH- NWS EMPLOYEE ELMA 16.0 130 AM 12/2 NWS EMPLOYEE WEST SENECA 16.0 600 AM 12/2 EAST AURORA 11.0 708 AM 12/2 BUFFALO 5.7 500 AM 12/2 AIRPORT(NWS)(2.7 LK EFF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Cocorahs reporting 24 inches in West Seneca. Melissa holmes from channel 4 is in west seneca and she said there's AT LEAST 18-20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This thing is defintely moving northward http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BUF&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.125&noclutter=0&t=1291294228&lat=42.91590500&lon=-78.89094543&label=Buffalo%2C+NY&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=497¢ery=185&transx=97&transy=-55&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Moderate snow moving in,could see wall of white clouds from outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I have an "eyeball" estimate of at least 20 inches at my office in the eastern part of Lancaster (near the Lancaster airport). Here's a pic from about 20 minutes ago. Currently have 1-2"/hr snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I have an "eyeball" estimate of at least 20 inches at my office in the eastern part of Lancaster (near the Lancaster airport). Here's a pic from about 20 minutes ago. Currently have 1-2"/hr snow. Holy sh@t nice !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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