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December 1-3 lake effect snow event


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LEK, I was catching up on the models and looks like the initial band is going to be coming in on a 260-270 flow off Ontario. That would be further south than originally thought right? Do you think this still sets up north of Redfield to start? Hoping it gives me until noon tomorrow to get there.

Much like last week, I think we will start out with two bands...(models never seem to show this, and seemingly compromise) then consolidation further north (a break for you) then the southward move tomorrow aftn./eve. begins

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We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet.

While I agree with this sentiment, this setup does have the ability to easily drop 20-30 inches in the absolute best case scenario. That band is already crackling with 35-45dbz echoes indicative of the extremely convective nature of this setup with the low SFC wind speeds allowing for a longer residence time over the water. There are going to be razor thin strips of 5"/hr all day and night long. I am excessively jealous.....

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Latest snowfall reports,airport already got 3 inches :unsure:

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...

RUSHFORD 4.0 1201 PM 12/1 SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...

LANCASTER 3.5 1100 AM 12/1

CLARENCE CENTER 3.0 1114 AM 12/1

MARILLA 2.0 1030 AM 12/1

BUFFALO 3.0 1201 PM 12/1 WEATHER SERVICE

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

LOCKPORT 2.5 1100 AM 12/1 THUNDER

EAST WILSON 2.0 1115 AM 12/1 THUNDER

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While I agree with this sentiment, this setup does have the ability to easily drop 20-30 inches in the absolute best case scenario. That band is already crackling with 35-45dbz echoes indicative of the extremely convective nature of this setup with the low SFC wind speeds allowing for a longer residence time over the water. There are going to be razor thin strips of 5"/hr all day and night long. I am excessively jealous.....

Yep, I wish I was home for this event and not the one this past weekend. Don't get me wrong, things got pretty intense for about an hour Friday night with +TSSN but it didn't last nearly long enough. I'll be sure to relay reports from my parents as this event progresses.

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I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! :arrowhead: Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.:

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

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I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! :arrowhead: Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.:

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

Stop your going to give me a heart attack :arrowhead:

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Looks like some fun times for me over the next couple of days. Not in the bullseye but has to be at least 1" of new QPF after the rains are factored in. I'll keep you posted!

I'm not sure who made up the color scheme for the precip. but when using "black" as one of the colors and the numerical font color is black, it's hard to read the max amounts!!! :arrowhead: Appears 2"+ bullseyes at the end of each lake. Some over the eastern areas incorporate the earlier rains...but the southtowns (for this time period) would appear to be 95+% snow.:

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

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Justin, you might want to look away from the screen.....

Looks like a major southtowns/boston hills special right now.

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NEAR

EDEN AND ANGOLA NORTHEAST ACROSS HAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK...AND EAST

AURORA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BAND WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BOSTON HILLS...THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF

WYOMING COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GENESEE COUNTY.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST

INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS

THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE

PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

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One of those classic southtowns events it appears...OP will end up with like 24" and BUF with less than 6" laugh.gif

I don't remember one of these events happening in the last 5-10 years.

You don't remember a SW Erie event, or one where metro buf gets the shaft while 5 miles south gets blown out. I guess my question is would you consider the bald eagle event from Christmas 01 and the Oct 06 event to fit this bill? Because those were epic and fairly recent. Not to mention the 2000 3 days before Thanksgiving Bomb.

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You don't remember a SW Erie event, or one where metro buf gets the shaft while 5 miles south gets blown out. I guess my question is would you consider the bald eagle event from Christmas 01 and the Oct 06 event to fit this bill? Because those were epic and fairly recent. Not to mention the 2000 3 days before Thanksgiving Bomb.

the southtowns got plenty in those events...city of BUF/NWS BUF just got more...

I'm talking about an event that hammered central Erie County when the city barely got anything.

This type of event:

stormd.gif

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