lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 I slowed down the animation...(looked too fast!) Like the map. Trying to paitently wait for your total map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 sweet in the 9-15 inch zone I'm hoping your right. Last event was a dud with only 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 sweet in the 9-15 inch zone I'm hoping your right. Last event was a dud with only 4 inches. As you either already know, or will learn, maps like these are rarely completely accurate (meaning it is just about impossible to nail the range for EVERYONE affected, due to micro scale aspects). These will, for the foreseeable future, provide a blend of "best estimates of totals" and "best guesses at locations of those estimations". In the end, you might get 16" while someone in the same "range" gets only 7"....so it averages out generally speaking. I think you'll do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Thanks for all your input and analysis. I always look forward to seeing your posts. I will keep you posted on amounts from Redfield. Any word from Ty? I am surprised he hasn't made his way over to the new board yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 sweet in the 9-15 inch zone I'm hoping your right. Last event was a dud with only 4 inches. sweet 5-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hows it looking for the Syracuse area Friday/Saturday? Few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hows it looking for the Syracuse area Friday/Saturday? Few inches? I think so....but I'm not sold yet on the degree to which the models are making the mean winds veer. Northern suburbs for sure....but then again, the cap lowers a decent amount, and according to BUFKIT, our omega and snowgrowth region seperate some and become less favorable....ie smaller dendrites... 4+ days out...so details not set yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Thanks for all your input and analysis. I always look forward to seeing your posts. I will keep you posted on amounts from Redfield. Any word from Ty? I am surprised he hasn't made his way over to the new board yet. I tried searching for Ty's phone number (Had it on an old cell when we chased together a few years back.....but to no avail I think he missed the cut wrt Eastern -> American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 sweet 5-9 Metro Buffalo is in the 2-5 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Metro Buffalo is in the 2-5 on that map. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I tried searching for Ty's phone number (Had it on an old cell when we chased together a few years back.....but to no avail I think he missed the cut wrt Eastern -> American. I just found him on facebook...I was about to say...it might be worth contacting the SUNY Oswego Alumni office...he went to school with me for a few years. I'll friend him and send him a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Snowing pretty good in Eggertsville,NY. Grass is covered pretty well and roads are starting to become covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You've probably made out better than me. I remember coming home from Florida on 1/4/10 and got to use my snowblower for the first time in the season. Lewis County has gotten into the act now too: .. Lake effect snow watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a lake effect snow watch... which is in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * Locations: Jefferson and Lewis counties. The heaviest snow is expected in central and southern Jefferson County and northern Lewis County. * Timing: lake effect snow is expected to develop Wednesday evening and continue through Thursday evening. * Snow accumulations: may exceed one foot where the lake effect snow persists the longest. * Impacts: heavy lake effect snow may produce difficult travel conditions with snow covered roads and poor visibility. * Forecaster confidence: there remains some uncertainty as to the exact placement of lake effect snow. A small change in wind direction may Carry Lake effect snow farther north into northern Jefferson County or farther south across the Tug Hill plateau. Yep, BUF is thinking 10-14 inches for the Tug, I think there could be a few places with a little more than that...I guess we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Should be ok Sunday right? Making the trek for the last time to Potsdam for the girl's graduation. Will it be a my F150 or the wife's Mercury Milan for the ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 This is right by my house in eggertsville. Met's are saying 2 feet won't be uncommon in Orchard Park,Hamburg, and Elma. =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 LEK, I was catching up on the models and looks like the initial band is going to be coming in on a 260-270 flow off Ontario. That would be further south than originally thought right? Do you think this still sets up north of Redfield to start? Hoping it gives me until noon tomorrow to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll pop a map out for the end of week LES (starting tomorrow evening) later tonight... Teaser alert: Big totals for someone.... I hear next week might be prolific for you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I hear next week might be prolific for you guys? How 'bout orgasmic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Synoptic snow moving out....LES already taking shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Synoptic snow moving out....LES already taking shape! [/quoteYes!!! Already got 2 inches here in Eggertsville. Going to West Seneca/OP later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 My final call map and a look outside my house in Eggertsville,NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Jesus I think my heart just stopped. NWS forecast for West Seneca/OP border =]]] This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Thursday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. West wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats a total of 19- 29 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 anyone chasing this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Jesus I think my heart just stopped. NWS forecast for West Seneca/OP border =]]] This Afternoon: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Thursday: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. West wind between 13 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats a total of 19- 29 inches CONGRATS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 CONGRATS!! We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet. Exactly. That's why they issue advisories/warnings. 8-16" is the official NWS forecast for OP/WS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 We've talked about this on many occasions. To get your NWS forecasted totals, you CANNOT simply add up the maximum ranges. I suspect down near OP/WS that around a foot is a good bet. While I'm sure you are right, that IS the way the public looks at it. Something should be changed to clarify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Exactly. That's why they issue advisories/warnings. 8-16" is the official NWS forecast for OP/WS. Thats more then enough to make me happy =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 While I'm sure you are right, that IS the way the public looks at it. Something should be changed to clarify that. Totally agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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