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Heavy Rain / Coastal Flooding Event 4/16 - 4/17


DerekZ

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NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0538 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...DC...MD...NRN VA...ERN WV...DE...SWRN NJ...SRN PA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 151...152...

VALID 162238Z - 170015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 151...152...CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN VA WITH A

PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE WRN PERIPHERY

OF WW 151. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR IS SOUTH

OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ARCING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW TOWARD 30 S MRB

AND THEN SEWD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTH OF THIS

BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE FOUND OVER CNTRL

VA SUPPORTING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO

AROUND 500 J PER KG/. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS EVEN

MORE MARGINAL GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

PERSISTENT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS REINFORCING THE COOL AIR

NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT OVER

THE MID ATLANTIC...REFLECTED BY SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 4 TO 6 MB PER

2 HRS OVER SERN PA...WILL ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO TRANSLATE NEWD OVER

THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN

VA INTO ERN MD AND SERN PA IN RESPONSE TO ISALLOBARIC FORCING. IN

TURN...MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THIS AREA

FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY /ALBEIT MARGINAL/ AND MORE

ROBUST UPDRAFT POTENTIAL TO NOSE NWD IN TIME. DESPITE THE MARGINAL

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /71 KT OF 0-6 KM

SHEAR PER STERLING VWP/ AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE

ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR UPDRAFTS.

THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE IS FORECAST TO CONSIST OF LINE

SEGMENTS/QLCS STRUCTURES MOVING NEWD...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES POSSIBLE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW151 INVOF STRONGER

INSTABILITY. VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC /AROUND 50 KT AT 1

KM PER STERLING VWP/ WILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT WITH ANY OF

THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS

WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH WELL ABOVE

400 M2 PER S2 IN MANY AREAS/...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LEWP

STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2011

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3.31in of rain here back towards Harrisburg with many areas of flash flooding and tons of road closures throughout the county; very serious situation here considering the amount of rain we received today and these past two weeks.

Wow that's a lot. How much did you get just from the squall line?

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TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... CENTRAL YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 900 PM EDT* AT 828 PM EDT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE TORNADO WAS NEAR EMIGSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BAINBRIDGE AND HALLAM AROUND 835 PM EDT... MAYTOWN AND MARIETTA AROUND 840 PM EDT... ELIZABETHTOWN AND COLUMBIA AROUND 845 PM EDT... MOUNT JOY AND MOUNTVILLE AROUND 850 PM EDT... LANDISVILLE AROUND 855 PM EDT... MANHEIM AROUND 900 PM EDT...

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Rainfall and peak wind gusts since 12Z:

TTN 0.97"/33 mph

PNE 0.89"/38 mph

WRI 0.58"/44 mph

VAY 0.84"/36 mph

SMQ 1.14"/33 mph

LOM 0.99"/33 mph

UKT 0.99"/32 mph

PHL 1.16"/41 mph

MJX 0.24"/33 mph

BLM 0.16"/40 mph

PTW 1.63"/31 mph

XLL 1.36"/31 mph

MMU NA/37 mph

ABE 1.49"/35 mph

EWR 0.57"/47 mph

CDW 1.44"/45 mph

12N 0.97"/35 mph

TEB 0.73"/44 mph

NYC 0.37"/39 mph

ACY 0.19"/45 mph

ILG 1.28"/47 mph

LGA 0.29"/48 mph

MQS 1.46"/38 mph

JFK 0.16"/45 mph

RDG 1.18"/45 mph

MIV 0.36"/40 mph

MPO 2.52"/36 mph

FWN 0.56"/22 mph

LNS 0.81"/47 mph

HPN 0.99"/32 mph

FRG 0.13"/43 mph

DOV 0.61"/37 mph

AVP 0.68"/62 mph

MGJ 0.22"/30 mph

SWF NA/40 mph

MUI 1.88"/32 mph

ISP 0.17"/45 mph

GED 0.12"/47 mph

ESN NA/38 mph

W29 NA/46 mph

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New SVR out for Cecil & Chester

WUUS51 KPHI 170111

SVRPHI

MDC015-PAC029-170215-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0018.110417T0111Z-110417T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

911 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ELKTON...

CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST CHESTER...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 908 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF HONEY BROOK TO ROCK SPRINGS TO 22 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF OCTORARO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES

NORTHEAST OF LANCASTER TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER TO 13 MILES

NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

MOUNT VERNON...GLEN ROY...WEST NOTTINGHAM AND RISING SUN AROUND 920

PM EDT...

HOMEVILLE...FARMINGTON...OXFORD AND HONEY BROOK AROUND 925 PM

EDT...

COCHRANVILLE AND ZION AROUND 930 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT

WAIT FOR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE

A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW

JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7615 3978 7607 3987 7601 3992 7601

4013 7593 4026 7566 4019 7555 4013 7551

4007 7537 4004 7543 3999 7545 3987 7562

3984 7560 3982 7570 3972 7579 3939 7577

3938 7604 3953 7599 3956 7610 3972 7624

TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 269DEG 37KT 4019 7611 3976 7616

3942 7640

$$

MPD

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