Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 0z run of the ARW from LWX - still impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 10% Tornado area into the DC area and 15% Tornado/Large hatched area for tornadoes just south of Potomac River and down thru Carolinas and same for hatched wind...this could be quite a memorable day.for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 instability still going to be an issue up here.. some big torn probs for around here tho. maybe ellinwood and jason will get their m/a torn though it'll prob be a rain-wrapped mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 instability still going to be an issue up here.. some big torn probs for around here tho. maybe ellinwood and jason will get their m/a torn though it'll prob be a rain-wrapped mess. Yes to both instability and rain-wrapped mess, that being said 500 J/kg is probably going to be enough to get the job done, 1000-1500 J/kg would be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Greg Forbes has given a 6/10 TORCON (sp?) rating for most of Virginia....upgraded from 4/10 that he gave yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Greg Forbes has given a 6/10 TORCON (sp?) rating for most of Virginia....upgraded from 4/10 that he gave yesterday. What about for DC area? I wonder how accurate that thing is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Yes to both instability and rain-wrapped mess, that being said 500 J/kg is probably going to be enough to get the job done, 1000-1500 J/kg would be golden. I don't think we get to 500 J/kg with the southeast winds thought we'll probably be in the 200-300 which might be enough. Plenty helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Latest SREF run rolling in on SPC looks a hair better than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 09z run ARW from LWX - From the looks of it you can see some embedded bows and/or supercells within the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This townhouse sucks, the windows are so Old and poorly insolated. At about 9AM I awoke to some water in the Bottom Edge of the Window Sill Between the Lining and the Frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 15Z RUC HAS A 1.5+ area just north west of Baltimore/Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 PDS Tornado Watch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Upgrading to high risk for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Upgrading to high risk for eastern NC. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 161616Z - 161715Z AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ..SMITH.. 04/16/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34047921 35927883 36467841 36547738 36417656 35997655 34857678 33877798 33787883 34047921 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is just plain effin miserable out there. Christ! about a third of an inch here since midnight, temps 51* now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 1630 OTLK -- 30% wind knocking on the door with the hatched at EZF and south... hail minimal... TOR remains at 10% (maybe a slight nudge north?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Of course.. but we will see.. wouldn't be surprised to see a TW for us later WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 damn.. high risk. first of the yr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 damn.. high risk. first of the yr? Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 damn.. high risk. first of the yr? I would have expected it in the plains. Pretty close to us for the first one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Got my AllisonHouse subscription all renewed up and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Yes it is i dont get spc.. why y-day or the day before werent high risk and today is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Got my AllisonHouse subscription all renewed up and ready to go. I know its cloudy and such... but for some reason I am liking the 10% TOR probs... what are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 i dont get spc.. why y-day or the day before werent high risk and today is.. You should write a strongly worded letter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I know its cloudy and such... but for some reason I am liking the 10% TOR probs... what are you thinking? I think we'll get a line but I think it'll stay marginal severe at best until Fredericksburg and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I think we'll get a line but I think it'll stay marginal severe at best until Fredericksburg and south. The local models seemed pretty hyped up for today, though they have often been wrong this year so far on storms... maybe they will strike gold today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Wow those clouds are just flying by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...DC...PORTIONS VA...MD...DE...ERN PANHANDLE OF WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161652Z - 161845Z SVR THREAT....INCLUDING TORNADO/DAMAGING GUST RISK...IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER AREAS N OF WW 150. WHILE NOT AS BUOYANT AS FARTHER S...AIR MASS IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE AT LEAST MRGL LEVELS THROUGH 21Z. GIVEN ALREADY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES THAT ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS MID-UPPER TROUGH APCHS...WW IS ANTICIPATED. 16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN WV AND WRN VA...JUST BEHIND INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR MWK-ROA-EKN LINE. WARM FRONT WAS REDEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NC TO NEAR VA BORDER AND WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS DC AREA PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN TSTM BAND. CLOUD BREAKS...EVIDENT IN 1615Z VIS IMAGE OVER CENTRAL NC...WERE SPREADING NWD INTO S-CENTRAL VA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THETAE ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING WARM FROPA TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...MINIMAL CINH AND AT LEAST WEAK MLCAPE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN VA...WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER WRN/NRN VA WILL REMAIN NEARLY NEUTRAL. BY 20Z...EXPECT 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE INTO PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL VA AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...SPREADING/EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD MD BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS BUOYANT PROFILE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR 60-75 KT WILL DEVELOP. MEANWHILE EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 500 J/KG WILL OCCUR INVOF WARM FRONT. EXPECT MORE MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED MEAN WIND VECTORS WITH NWD EXTENT...WHICH WILL BE LESS ORTHOGONAL TO CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE LINEAR MODAL TENDENCIES ACROSS WRN/NWRN VA AND NWRN MD. HOWEVER...STG SFC ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FEATURES TO ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE THREAT LOCALLY...AS WELL AS TORNADOES RELATED TO BOTH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS AND LEADING-EDGE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE FORCING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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