Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 let's split this bad boy off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I predict rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I will add my snow total obs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I will add my snow total obs here That should be easy to do and quick too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Damaging straight line winds and baseball sized hail in Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 so many comedians in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Heavy heavy sun right now. NWS needs to put up a PBW alert. That's Pasty Burn Watch for those of you keeping score at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Heavy heavy sun right now. NWS needs to put up a PBW alert. That's Pasty Burn Watch for those of you keeping score at home. I get to go enjoy it in less than an hour! ...unlike yesterday where I was driving home and the sun was going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 1730z SPC OTLK has SLGT risk still DC and south.. 30% and hatched probs between EZF and RIC (closer to RIC)... FARTHER N INTO VA...A THREAT OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT HERE WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 nice to see the mod risk i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Damaging straight line winds and baseball sized hail in Bethesda. Zing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 A much nicer day than I was expecting. Very pleasant outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 GFS has ~1" for DC/Balt. NAM is about the same, but much higher totals just to the east with 1.5"+ over the bay and eastern shore. This is of course in the same are that GFS has LESS totals. High res WRFs say 'Man the life boats!" for some areas (lots of banding as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 nice radar sim supercells in the line in the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 nice radar sim supercells in the line in the carolinas Indeed. Looks like we also get some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 nice radar sim supercells in the line in the carolinas congrats to Sean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Afternoon AFD from LWX <snip> SEVERE WEATHER STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW. DO EXPECT A PORTION OF THE CWFA TO BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME UNSTABLE AT THE SURFACE. WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH 50-60 KT AT 850 MB. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE TOMORROW WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WILL BE ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...NORTHERN VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA WITH THE WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY. STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR T-STORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SPIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER T-STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 18z nam ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 18z nam ftw DC split in full force lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I might get a discussion up tonight, but I'm pretty worn out from this week. Looks like a great severe day to the south, with a squall line possible up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 18z nam ftw LOL...was just about to post the storm total precip map that shows a sweet DC-area rainhole. That's a thing of beauty right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Cold. Jeebus. At son's soccer practice, and it was really unpleasantly cold and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Cold. Jeebus. At son's soccer practice, and it was really unpleasantly cold and windy. It is, indeed, nasty out right now. As an aside....take a look at some of those cells in Alabama right now. Those people are dodging bullets right now......as are the folks in SC Illinois, western kentucky and western tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Damaging straight line winds and baseball sized hail in Bethesda. Hoping for it, long shot though. Severewx is elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 though i guess this implies it fills in http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_030m.gif maybe time to check the crappy new ncep site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 sweet Consistent with the 18z NAM sim. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 ARW run by LWX for the 21z run. Obviously this model has busted a lot in the past but this is the most impressive returns it has showed this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 New day one outlooks is mighty impressive. Brings slight a good ways north and 10% tornado gets into the area as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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