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April 18-20th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Folks: need your help here. Got diverted from IND to South Bend. Departure uncertain so thinking of driving. How does it look between now and say 4:00 to get to IND?

Three hr. drive for me from Elkhart to Indy on U.S. 31. Leave now while the warm front is still in the southern INDY County warning area and you should be ok. Main action comes later after 4 unless storms break out along the warm front.

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MD 470 not ready yet. Wonder who gets it...

Edit...

mcd0470.gif

Looks like initiation is trying to start just north of here (Joplin, MO)

The front it still moving quite quickly so I think I'm almost out of the woods within the next hour or so.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON

ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NEAR COU WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY

20/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF

THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR ON BOTH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN MO AS WELL

AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AS REMAINING CAP IS REMOVED. GIVEN

THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN

PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING

WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM

THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED.

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Nice hail report from the elevated storms earlier this afternoon north of Indpls.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

108 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0106 PM HAIL ARCADIA 40.17N 86.02W

04/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

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Nice hail report from the elevated storms earlier this afternoon north of Indpls.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

108 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0106 PM HAIL ARCADIA 40.17N 86.02W

04/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR

Wife told me we had nickel size hail in Lebanon earlier..

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Wow what a change here south of Springfield. Left the grunge and drizzle, and now it's completely sunny here. Feels a lot warmer too.

0-3km EHI already over 6 near St. Louis. That should move east northeast through central and southern Illinois over the next few hours. HRRR shows some monster sups moving through this area later on as well. Good luck to all you other chasers today and be safe!

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0140 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AR / ERN OK / N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191840Z - 191945Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM

INITIATION IS FIRST EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.

LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS

BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN

OK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR AND PERHAPS FAR NERN TX.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR JLN SWWD

NEAR ADM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE AUS AND

SAT VICINITY. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE

EWD MOVING SURFACE FEATURES WITH MLCAPE ALREADY 3000-4000 J/KG /PER

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME EXTREMELY

UNSTABLE AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S/90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OK AND HEIGHT

FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY GLANCE THE REGION AS FAR S

AS N-CNTRL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT WILL ENABLE THE CAP TO ERODE INITIALLY

ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR WHERE CU ARE ALREADY BECOMING AGITATED

ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST

/N OF THE RED RIVER/. FARTHER S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE

BREACHED LOCALLY--RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY/S...UPDRAFTS

WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THE FAVORED STORM MODE. A

LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...IN ADDITION TO

DMGG WINDS AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS

GREATEST GENERALLY OVER OK/AR/FAR NERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS

FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST.

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Not very confident of the torn threat... winds are pretty veered out of the SW. Looks like capping will not be strong enough to preclude [fairly linear] initiation early, but it also opens the door to prefrontal discrete convection. Pretty much stuff that has already been thrown out there.

FWIW, area near LSX might have enhanced tornadic potential, the boundary is very evident on visible satellite and there is a nice zone of locally backed winds in the vicinity (that is not associated with the WF). Given a couple more hours of modification invof the bdy and a cell that can latch onto there (or tap the enhanced vorticity along it), this may be the thing to watch.

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Wow what a change here south of Springfield. Left the grunge and drizzle, and now it's completely sunny here. Feels a lot warmer too.

0-3km EHI already over 6 near St. Louis. That should move east northeast through central and southern Illinois over the next few hours. HRRR shows some monster sups moving through this area later on as well. Good luck to all you other chasers today and be safe!

Based on numerical data/sat trends/meso analysis I think things so start to develop in the next hour or two....wish I was there....good setup spot right now would be the 57/70 intersection in southeast Illinois. The cap is gone in Missouri so it's a matter of time and moisture convergence is on the increase. Hope somebody posts so close up pics. Have a good chase everyone....:thumbsup:....:scooter:

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Based on numerical data/sat trends/meso analysis I think things so start to develop in the next hour or two....wish I was there....good setup spot right now would be the 57/70 intersection in southeast Illinois. The cap is gone in Missouri so it's a matter of time and moisture convergence is on the increase. Hope somebody posts so close up pics. Have a good chase everyone....:thumbsup:....:scooter:

Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur.

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Not very confident of the torn threat... winds are pretty veered out of the SW. Looks like capping will not be strong enough to preclude [fairly linear] initiation early, but it also opens the door to prefrontal discrete convection. Pretty much stuff that has already been thrown out there.

FWIW, area near LSX might have enhanced tornadic potential, the boundary is very evident on visible satellite and there is a nice zone of locally backed winds in the vicinity (that is not associated with the WF). Given a couple more hours of modification invof the bdy and a cell that can latch onto there (or tap the enhanced vorticity along it), this may be the thing to watch.

Along the warm front though the shear is much higher. The speed shear is good also and since you get rotation from directional or speed shear there is still a tornado threat even along the cold front where a linear mode will ultimately dominate later on. The tornado threat is still very high and it wouldn't surprise me to see a PDS Tor watch later today for southern Illinois and northern/western Kentucky into south-central Indiana. It's not a given but I would say better than a 50/50 threat (if I didn't put a hex on it by saying that).

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Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur.

Warm front definitely on the move now in Indiana.. Terre Haute has gone from 49 to 61 in the last two hours..

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Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur.

Hope you nail it Indy....what program do you use when chasing? Use to use Stormlab but gonna switch to GR2 I think when I get a new laptop next week (coming home for a 3 day visit) since I'm off.

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