Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I am wondering how far northward the warm front will retreat per forecast today. Surface low in sw MO has weakened to 1000mb since earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 nice bow nice looking scenario for those of us up north, probably some decent hailers if anything like that comes to pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Folks: need your help here. Got diverted from IND to South Bend. Departure uncertain so thinking of driving. How does it look between now and say 4:00 to get to IND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Folks: need your help here. Got diverted from IND to South Bend. Departure uncertain so thinking of driving. How does it look between now and say 4:00 to get to IND? Three hr. drive for me from Elkhart to Indy on U.S. 31. Leave now while the warm front is still in the southern INDY County warning area and you should be ok. Main action comes later after 4 unless storms break out along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 nice looking scenario for those of us up north, probably some decent hailers if anything like that comes to pass this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 briefing from IND http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ind/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Strong (but not severe thunderstorm) in Green County, Wisconsin. We've been having sleet much of the morning, but it would be cool if we could transition to a strong thunderstorm (or get thundersleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 fairly significant precip fail for HRRR across ohio. I thought that was a relatively good shortrange model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 MD 470 not ready yet. Wonder who gets it... Edit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Same RUC based analysis shows good moisture convergence where CINH is minimized and CAPE is maximized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 MD 470 not ready yet. Wonder who gets it... Edit... Looks like initiation is trying to start just north of here (Joplin, MO) The front it still moving quite quickly so I think I'm almost out of the woods within the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis Nice boundary, and check out what look like convective rolls in Arkansas, except arranged normal to what I assume mean low level wind flow is. I have no idea how they are formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Oh and here's the tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NEAR COU WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY 20/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON BOTH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN MO AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AS REMAINING CAP IS REMOVED. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Nice hail report from the elevated storms earlier this afternoon north of Indpls. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 108 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0106 PM HAIL ARCADIA 40.17N 86.02W 04/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Nice hail report from the elevated storms earlier this afternoon north of Indpls. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 108 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0106 PM HAIL ARCADIA 40.17N 86.02W 04/19/2011 E1.75 INCH HAMILTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR Wife told me we had nickel size hail in Lebanon earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Areas that end up S of the warm front are balls-deep in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wow what a change here south of Springfield. Left the grunge and drizzle, and now it's completely sunny here. Feels a lot warmer too. 0-3km EHI already over 6 near St. Louis. That should move east northeast through central and southern Illinois over the next few hours. HRRR shows some monster sups moving through this area later on as well. Good luck to all you other chasers today and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Areas that end up S of the warm front are balls-deep in trouble. St Louis is right on the line, but just south of it now. I'm about 45 miles sw of St. Louis. Things could get ugly in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 4500 CAPE now in the area of partial clearing in south central MO. Excellent low level helicity from there east. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AR / ERN OK / N-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191840Z - 191945Z A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION IS FIRST EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN OK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR AND PERHAPS FAR NERN TX. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR JLN SWWD NEAR ADM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE AUS AND SAT VICINITY. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING SURFACE FEATURES WITH MLCAPE ALREADY 3000-4000 J/KG /PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S/90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OK AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY GLANCE THE REGION AS FAR S AS N-CNTRL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT WILL ENABLE THE CAP TO ERODE INITIALLY ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR WHERE CU ARE ALREADY BECOMING AGITATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST /N OF THE RED RIVER/. FARTHER S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BREACHED LOCALLY--RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY/S...UPDRAFTS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THE FAVORED STORM MODE. A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS GREATEST GENERALLY OVER OK/AR/FAR NERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Not very confident of the torn threat... winds are pretty veered out of the SW. Looks like capping will not be strong enough to preclude [fairly linear] initiation early, but it also opens the door to prefrontal discrete convection. Pretty much stuff that has already been thrown out there. FWIW, area near LSX might have enhanced tornadic potential, the boundary is very evident on visible satellite and there is a nice zone of locally backed winds in the vicinity (that is not associated with the WF). Given a couple more hours of modification invof the bdy and a cell that can latch onto there (or tap the enhanced vorticity along it), this may be the thing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Almost show time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wow what a change here south of Springfield. Left the grunge and drizzle, and now it's completely sunny here. Feels a lot warmer too. 0-3km EHI already over 6 near St. Louis. That should move east northeast through central and southern Illinois over the next few hours. HRRR shows some monster sups moving through this area later on as well. Good luck to all you other chasers today and be safe! Based on numerical data/sat trends/meso analysis I think things so start to develop in the next hour or two....wish I was there....good setup spot right now would be the 57/70 intersection in southeast Illinois. The cap is gone in Missouri so it's a matter of time and moisture convergence is on the increase. Hope somebody posts so close up pics. Have a good chase everyone........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Based on numerical data/sat trends/meso analysis I think things so start to develop in the next hour or two....wish I was there....good setup spot right now would be the 57/70 intersection in southeast Illinois. The cap is gone in Missouri so it's a matter of time and moisture convergence is on the increase. Hope somebody posts so close up pics. Have a good chase everyone........ Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Not very confident of the torn threat... winds are pretty veered out of the SW. Looks like capping will not be strong enough to preclude [fairly linear] initiation early, but it also opens the door to prefrontal discrete convection. Pretty much stuff that has already been thrown out there. FWIW, area near LSX might have enhanced tornadic potential, the boundary is very evident on visible satellite and there is a nice zone of locally backed winds in the vicinity (that is not associated with the WF). Given a couple more hours of modification invof the bdy and a cell that can latch onto there (or tap the enhanced vorticity along it), this may be the thing to watch. Along the warm front though the shear is much higher. The speed shear is good also and since you get rotation from directional or speed shear there is still a tornado threat even along the cold front where a linear mode will ultimately dominate later on. The tornado threat is still very high and it wouldn't surprise me to see a PDS Tor watch later today for southern Illinois and northern/western Kentucky into south-central Indiana. It's not a given but I would say better than a 50/50 threat (if I didn't put a hex on it by saying that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Sitting in Litchfield, IL... 77/66 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur. Warm front definitely on the move now in Indiana.. Terre Haute has gone from 49 to 61 in the last two hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Thanks, Patrick...and yay, I picked Effingham to Terre Haute along the I-70 corridor as my sweet spot a day or so ago. Looks like it might occur. Hope you nail it Indy....what program do you use when chasing? Use to use Stormlab but gonna switch to GR2 I think when I get a new laptop next week (coming home for a 3 day visit) since I'm off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 We are setting up between Terre Haute & Effingham - live video at SWATChasers.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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