Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Wow! We have everything from strong tornadoes to a possible derecho in the latest SPC outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Interesting that the headline mentions a few potentially strong tornadoes, but there is no hatching on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 12z RUC very bullish, even when taking 20% off waiting on NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Large area of clearing in southern half of MO sw of these elevated hailers will only prime the pump today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 quarter size hail in East Peoria, IL just a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Yeesh WOW!!! Watch out Beau...going to be a rough day friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Definitely have had alot of rain down in southern indiana in spots this morning.. 0921 AM FLASH FLOOD BROWNSTOWN 38.88N 86.05W 04/19/2011 JACKSON IN CO-OP OBSERVER BROWNSTOWN HIGH SCHOOL RECEIVED 4.26 INCHES OF RAINFALL. INDIANA HIGHWAY 250 BETWEEN BROWNSTOWN AND UNIONTOWN HAD WATER OVER IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Surface to 1km helicity in St. Louis area is presently 1050 m2/s2. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Surface to 1km helicity in St. Louis area is presently 1050 m2/s2. Amazing! Clearing developing now in Central Illinois and Missouri.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Very heavy rainfall throughout the night into the am hours. Rivers and streams will be very high when this is all set and done. Now we wait for the warm front to push through and crank up the atmosphere for severe weather later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Interesting that the headline mentions a few potentially strong tornadoes, but there is no hatching on the maps. I think the lack of hatching is SPC's lack of confidence in storm mode or how long storms are discrete. I'd be they hatch it in the next update if their uncertainty has been reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Good view of the warm front, cold front, and what I think is the LLJ advecting from sw to ne in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Dryline/Front is really blasting east over NE OK/SE KS. Looks like another hour or two and I am in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 HRRR is back up http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF ERN OK...AR...CNTRL/SRN MO...WRN TN...KY...IL...IND AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN TX... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ..OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN OK/AR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF 30-60 M HEIGHT FALLS PER 12-HR AT 500 MB FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER W-CNTRL MO AS OF 16Z WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TO N OF STL BY 19/21Z...THE IL/IND BORDER NEAR DNV BY 20/03Z TO LAKE ERIE BY 20/12Z. A WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE LOW...GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH IL/IND/OH/PA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MO...NWRN AR AND SERN OK BY 20/00Z. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS. THESE LAPSE RATES RESIDE ABOVE A MOIST AND RATHER BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL N OF WARM FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...A CAP AT THE BASE OF THE EML IS EXPECTED TO DELAY SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONG UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY...TO 3000-4000+ J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO INTO ERN OK/WRN AR. FRONTAL UPLIFT COUPLED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO SWWD TO ERN OK/WRN AR. AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM E-CNTRL MO EWD THROUGH CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. GIVEN MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES /I.E. SUPERCELLS/...THIS AREA WILL REPRESENT THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS ALONG COLD FRONT WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS/QLCSS. WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE WIDE...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ..TX TSTM POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO WEAK OR NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. NONETHELESS...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE...BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S. SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE DEVELOP TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS...THE PRESENCE OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Got a hatched TOR area on the new day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Dryline/Front is really blasting east over NE OK/SE KS. Looks like another hour or two and I am in the clear. Yesterday, my forecasted high temp for today was 95 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 find the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 to LSX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 nice theta-e air pooling on the warm front already also getting some impressive parameters too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 That sounding is juicy Beau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 A good chunk of the 10% hatched tornado area is in the 40's right now, but it's a different world south of the warm front. I always feel like these days are a bit more dangerous from a public perception standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Here is the RUC sounding for Fairfield, Illinois (near Evansville, Indiana) at 4 pm cdt this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 WRF portrays a discreate supercell riding along the warmfront from STL to southern IN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 If you loop the 1km vis sat site from southern IL off CoD's page you can see a few boundaries nw of STL on the MO/IL around the 15:55z timeframe. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 A good chunk of the 10% hatched tornado area is in the 40's right now, but it's a different world south of the warm front. I always feel like these days are a bit more dangerous from a public perception standpoint. Almost looks like two warm fronts on satellite. You can see where the true surface front is by where the low level cumulus field starts. North of that there's about a 50-75 mile wide clear swath where temps are warmer than further north, but still not as warm as further south. This area will probably will probably mix out and become much warmer over the next few hours. Still really cool here in Peoria at 42. Gonna head down towards Litchfield Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Update from IND: .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... INCREDIBLY TIGHT WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS PROCEEDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DELAYED BY THIS MORNING CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A MAJOR BUST POTENTIAL AREA OF THE FORECAST AS GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES OVER A 1-2 COUNTY WIDE AREA. HAVE DELAYED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY A FEW HOURS AND THUS LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONCLUDES...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WARM FRONT...AS THIS MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A QUICKLY PROGRESSING LINE OR BOW COMPLEX SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED TORNADO/LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO AN EVEN GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 nice bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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