Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 In my limited time of looking at that product, I've rarely seen the 50's not produce at all. Some have been prolific while others have been more tame. I've seen it bust two times, one time was the setup a few days after June 5th last year and another time in NE/IA later in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Curveball thrown. Now I'm not sure what to think. Torn too. If this had been a consistent solution I'd be pretty sold on a fairly major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ive been looking at it since this time last year and your right, I cant remember seeing 50 at all last year. Only 40 or less and I believe it was the 40 contour that produced the tornadoes late one evening in Carroll County last year and all throughout Illinois. 4/24, 5/10, 6/5 are days last year that popped 50's and lived up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ive been looking at it since this time last year and your right, I cant remember seeing 50 at all last year. Only 40 or less and I believe it was the 40 contour that produced the tornadoes late one evening in Carroll County last year and all throughout Illinois. I'm pretty sure that one got up to 50 at one point. Can't remember if it was in Illinois or Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 We are targeting the Rockville area to start with. Parke County? Just off to my southwest. Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 190441Z - 190615Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD THROUGH S-CNTRL MO INTO NRN OK. A RESERVOIR OF STRONG 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE NWD DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN W-CNTRL MO. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES NWD...ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL.. 04/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm pretty sure that one got up to 50 at one point. Can't remember if it was in Illinois or Indiana. You could be right I cant remember! Its just my point the 50 contour doesnt usually show up unless a serious event it about to unfold. We shall see. I was out in the middle of the country just south in Clinton county that night watching those suckers! Even though it wasnt a direct hit it was an awesome sight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm targeting my apartment in Mount Pleasant, MI for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm targeting my apartment in Mount Pleasant, MI for tomorrow Enjoy your 34 degrees lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I like Southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois tomorrow afternoon for tornado activity. Yeah, buddy. My concern is that tornadoes which do form could be significant like we saw a few days ago. It's one thing to be under a TW and know that conditions are marginal, maybe you get an F0/F1. It's another thing altogether to know conditions can support F3+ twisters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 GFS also has blotchy QPF fields. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 GFS also has blotchy QPF fields. Not good. Is the GFS and NAM implying more discrete storm formation? That would be a concern considering the conducive enviroment the models are progging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinicity Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Hmm BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 125 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL 215 AM EDT * AT 120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 This is why. And the diff. vort. adv. it shows, with a vort max (and a decent one at that) advecting out over the warm sector late afternoon, totally support it. To your point, the 12z Euro is actually in agreement with that 00z NAM scenario. Check out their respective forecasts valid at 12z Tuesday morning, very similar (in location and magnitude of vort max). Edit: I also like how both show a response (albeit subtle) at jet level, with a 40 knot jet streak developing over the warm sector. Any amount of forcing will go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Hmm BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 125 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL 215 AM EDT * AT 120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. I'm seeing twitter reports of a touchdown reported by spotters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm seeing twitter reports of a touchdown reported by spotters. SVS that just came out doesn't mention that. Curious to see the next one. ..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS NORTHERN MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT... AT 138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 SVS that just came out doesn't mention that. Curious to see the next one. ..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS NORTHERN MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT... AT 138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. The reports are coming out of someone in the EVV area, saying hes getting them by ham. I can't vouch for authenticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Just remembered its April 19th, so there will be raging tornadoes in IL...some know what happened in this state 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...PARTS OF FAR WESTERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/NERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ..SYNOPSIS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL EMERGE INTO...AND THEN QUICKLY CROSS...THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE DAY...AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM OK NNEWD ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS OK INTO TX THROUGH 20/12Z. ..SERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY ELEVATED TO THE N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BE LYING FROM THE OZARKS EWD INVOF THE OH VALLEY. PERSISTENT EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TIME...EXPECT ASCENT FOCUSED INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO PERMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY FIRST OCCUR OVER ERN OK AND VICINITY...WITH INITIAL STORM MODE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED...AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT AND CAPPING LIKELY LIMITS INITIATION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY SWD A BIT INTO NERN TX -- THOUGH DRIER/MORE CAPPED AIRMASS WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX. WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO INDIANA AHEAD OF THE NEWD-MOVING LOW...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED. WITH TIME HOWEVER...AS STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME THE MORE PREVALENT SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS. THOUGH SOME EVENTUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORMS APPROACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..GOSS/COHEN.. 04/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 10% unhatched tornado and 45% hatched wind on this outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 New Maps Are Up for Tuesday. Tornado: Hail: Wind: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 10% unhatched tornado and 45% hatched wind on this outlook They went conservative, that way they still have room to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 10% unhatched tornado and 45% hatched wind on this outlook I can see them going with a hatching for the tor probs in later outlooks but nothing higher IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Could be a long tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 IND AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 242 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH INDIANA AND PUSH NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT...GENERATING MORE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND HELPS ESTABLISH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PROVIDING NEARLY CONSTANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA STRETCHING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT WAS ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS AND SEVERE THREAT TIMING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND THIS UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW....WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOW A LINGERING LOWER LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS LONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ABOVE THE INVERSION...MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. FURTHERMORE ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT AS STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH TO SPIN. ONGOING TIMING THOUGHTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AS INITIAL THREAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LIFTED INDEX READINGS WILL BE LESS THAN -6. GFS SHOWS A STRONG LLJ NEAR 50 KNTS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH ALONG WITH THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. THUS EXPECT ONSET MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LLJ WIELDS ITS INFLUENCE. THUS ALTHOUGH A COMPLETE SOAKER OF A DAY IS NOT EXPECTED...WILL TRY AND FOCUS HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS PUSH THE LOW TOWARD MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS INDIANA. BY THIS TIME...ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LOST...HOWEVER A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE HELICITY VALUES FOR ROTATING STORMS. THUS AGAIN WILL AIM FOR CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED DYNAMICS SEVERE SEVER WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WILL MENTION ALL OF THESE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TODAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR LOWS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THE BEST COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Just remembered its April 19th, so there will be raging tornadoes in IL...some know what happened in this state 15 years ago. Bob Gregory, WTHR, 15 years ago. "April 19, 1996 Severe Weather Outbreak: Part 02" http://goo.gl/4Kzra Sent from my HTC Thunderbolt using Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Tomorrow (Wednesday) is the 6 year anniversary of the Utica, IL tornado. Very memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Almost same polygon as last one. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 335 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL 400 AM EDT * AT 333 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 22 MILES EAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ODON... NEWBERRY... BURNS CITY... CRANE... INDIAN SPRINGS... OWENSBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 new day one..still no hatched tornado DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND THE OZARKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM NE TX TO THE LWR GRT LKS... ..SYNOPSIS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ENE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VLYS TONIGHT/EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW NOW OVER SE KS SHOULD TRACK ENE TO NEAR KSTL THIS EVE...AND TO LK ERIE BY 12Z WED AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY S ACROSS THE PLNS...AND E/SE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS VLY. THE COLD FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT...THE WARM/QSTNRY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE OZARKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VLY AND LWR GRT LKS... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. CLUSTERS/BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG AND N OF WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS. FORMING ALONG NERN FRINGE OF EWD-EXPANDING EML...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH YOUNGER AND/OR MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS. SOME...ALBEIT LOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SFC OR NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THESE ELEVATED CLUSTERS OVER PARTS OF IL...IND...KY...AND PERHAPS SW OH. IN THOSE AREAS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE...ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH AND SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO OVERCOME CAP PRODUCE RAPID AND PERHAPS NEARLY SIMULTANEOUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM ERN MO/IL SW INTO ERN OK/NE TX. THE FIRST STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER OK AND VICINITY...LIKELY WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT. THESE COULD YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVE AS FRONTAL UPLIFT FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT AND CAPPING LIMITS STORM INITIATION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. DRIER/MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...VEERING LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX. FARTHER NE...A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ALONG WARM FRONT FROM ERN MO INTO IL/IND...WHERE LOW-LVL SHEAR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...CINH AND FORCING CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY ALSO WILL EVOLVE INTO A QLCS...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND/POSSIBLE DERECHO CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/KY/TN TONIGHT. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED MORNING AS BAND OF 60+ KT SWLY LLJ SWEEPS NEWD IN TANDEM WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS LWR TN AND OH RVR VLYS. THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IN STORM INTENSITY MAY OCCUR EARLY WED...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW OF 1.25 - 1.50 INCHES/ SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST AS FAR E AS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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