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April 18-20th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Ive been looking at it since this time last year and your right, I cant remember seeing 50 at all last year. Only 40 or less and I believe it was the 40 contour that produced the tornadoes late one evening in Carroll County last year and all throughout Illinois.

4/24, 5/10, 6/5 are days last year that popped 50's and lived up to it.

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Ive been looking at it since this time last year and your right, I cant remember seeing 50 at all last year. Only 40 or less and I believe it was the 40 contour that produced the tornadoes late one evening in Carroll County last year and all throughout Illinois.

I'm pretty sure that one got up to 50 at one point. Can't remember if it was in Illinois or Indiana.

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mcd0466.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1141 PM CDT MON APR 18 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190441Z - 190615Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL. ISOLATED LARGE

HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND NEED FOR A WW IS

UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE

TRENDS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OH

VALLEY WWD THROUGH S-CNTRL MO INTO NRN OK. A RESERVOIR OF STRONG

2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR WHERE

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER

DEWPOINTS. ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ

WILL CONTRIBUTE NWD DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER

WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS

ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN W-CNTRL MO. AS THE ATMOSPHERE

DESTABILIZES NWD...ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/19/2011

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I'm pretty sure that one got up to 50 at one point. Can't remember if it was in Illinois or Indiana.

You could be right I cant remember! Its just my point the 50 contour doesnt usually show up unless a serious event it about to unfold. We shall see. I was out in the middle of the country just south in Clinton county that night watching those suckers! Even though it wasnt a direct hit it was an awesome sight!

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I like Southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois tomorrow afternoon for tornado activity.

Yeah, buddy. My concern is that tornadoes which do form could be significant like we saw a few days ago. It's one thing to be under a TW and know that conditions are marginal, maybe you get an F0/F1. It's another thing altogether to know conditions can support F3+ twisters.

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Hmm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

125 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES

NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

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This is why. And the diff. vort. adv. it shows, with a vort max (and a decent one at that) advecting out over the warm sector late afternoon, totally support it.

To your point, the 12z Euro is actually in agreement with that 00z NAM scenario. Check out their respective forecasts valid at 12z Tuesday morning, very similar (in location and magnitude of vort max).

Edit: I also like how both show a response (albeit subtle) at jet level, with a 40 knot jet streak developing over the warm sector. Any amount of forcing will go a long way.

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Hmm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

125 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 16 MILES

NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

I'm seeing twitter reports of a touchdown reported by spotters.

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I'm seeing twitter reports of a touchdown reported by spotters.

SVS that just came out doesn't mention that. Curious to see the next one.

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS NORTHERN MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

AT 138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

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SVS that just came out doesn't mention that. Curious to see the next one.

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS NORTHERN MARTIN...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

AT 138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

The reports are coming out of someone in the EVV area, saying hes getting them by ham. I can't vouch for authenticity.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN

OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND WESTERN

ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF

ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...PARTS OF FAR WESTERN

OHIO...AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/NERN TX NEWD ACROSS

THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

..SYNOPSIS

AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE

PERIOD WILL EMERGE INTO...AND THEN QUICKLY CROSS...THE PLAINS STATES

THROUGH THE DAY...AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFTS FROM OK NNEWD

ACROSS MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH

WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING

ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE

ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE

CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN

ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY

SWD ACROSS OK INTO TX THROUGH 20/12Z.

..SERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST

TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL

EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE

PERIOD...PRIMARILY ELEVATED TO THE N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT

EXPECTED TO BE LYING FROM THE OZARKS EWD INVOF THE OH VALLEY.

PERSISTENT EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES

ALOFT...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WARM

AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A CAPPED WARM

SECTOR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TIME...EXPECT ASCENT FOCUSED

INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME

HEATING/MIXING TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO PERMIT

STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY FIRST

OCCUR OVER ERN OK AND VICINITY...WITH INITIAL STORM MODE LIKELY TO

BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE IS

EXPECTED...AS FORCING ALONG THE FRONT FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT AND

CAPPING LIKELY LIMITS INITIATION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY SWD A BIT INTO

NERN TX -- THOUGH DRIER/MORE CAPPED AIRMASS WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD

LIMIT DEGREE OF SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX.

WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING

WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO INDIANA AHEAD

OF THE NEWD-MOVING LOW...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS

EXPECTED. WITH TIME HOWEVER...AS STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR

NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD

INCREASE AND BECOME THE MORE PREVALENT SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN INTO

THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE MID

MS/TN/OH VALLEYS. THOUGH SOME EVENTUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE

THREAT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER

IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS STORMS

APPROACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 04/19/2011

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IND AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

242 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH INDIANA AND PUSH NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES

TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS

ACROSS INDIANA LATE TONIGHT...GENERATING MORE STORMS...SOME OF

WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD

ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.

ANOTHER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND HELPS

ESTABLISH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGH

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PROVIDING NEARLY CONSTANT SHOWER

AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY

ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA STRETCHING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE

OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE

STREAMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARM

FRONT WAS ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA WITH

DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN

KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY

NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND

DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS AND SEVERE THREAT TIMING.

GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING

OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES

NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND THIS UPGLIDE

AHEAD OF THE LOW....WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECTED SHOWERS AND SCT

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF

LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOW A LINGERING LOWER

LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE IN MOST AREAS LONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM

FRONT. ABOVE THE INVERSION...MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE

IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. FURTHERMORE ACROSS THE

AREA VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT AS STORM RELATIVE

HELICITY IS IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS ANY

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR WILL HAVE A VERY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH TO SPIN.

ONGOING TIMING THOUGHTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AS INITIAL

THREAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE

FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LIFTED INDEX

READINGS WILL BE LESS THAN -6. GFS SHOWS A STRONG LLJ NEAR 50 KNTS

PUSHING NORTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING...HELPING TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH ALONG WITH THE

WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. THUS EXPECT ONSET MAINLY THIS

AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING FROM

SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LLJ WIELDS ITS INFLUENCE. THUS ALTHOUGH A

COMPLETE SOAKER OF A DAY IS NOT EXPECTED...WILL TRY AND FOCUS HIGH

CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS PUSH THE

LOW TOWARD MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS INDIANA.

BY THIS TIME...ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LOST...HOWEVER A

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE

SYSTEM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE

INSTABILITY WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE

HELICITY VALUES FOR ROTATING STORMS. THUS AGAIN WILL AIM FOR

CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED DYNAMICS

SEVERE SEVER WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING FLASH

FLOODING...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE

WINDS. WILL MENTION ALL OF THESE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS

TODAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT

LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

AS FOR LOWS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS RAIN IS

EXPECTED AND THE BEST COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

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Almost same polygon as last one.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

335 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT

* AT 333 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF WASHINGTON...OR 22 MILES EAST

OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ODON...

NEWBERRY...

BURNS CITY...

CRANE...

INDIAN SPRINGS...

OWENSBURG...

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new day one..still no hatched tornado

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0745 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND THE OZARKS

NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

FROM NE TX TO THE LWR GRT LKS...

..SYNOPSIS

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E ACROSS

THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ENE ACROSS THE MID MS AND

OH VLYS TONIGHT/EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW NOW OVER SE KS SHOULD

TRACK ENE TO NEAR KSTL THIS EVE...AND TO LK ERIE BY 12Z WED AS

TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY S ACROSS THE PLNS...AND E/SE

ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS VLY. THE COLD FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT

LESSER EXTENT...THE WARM/QSTNRY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE

LOW...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE TODAY

THROUGH EARLY WED.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE OZARKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH

VLY AND LWR GRT LKS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW

POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES.

CLUSTERS/BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF

THE DAY ALONG AND N OF WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS.

FORMING ALONG NERN FRINGE OF EWD-EXPANDING EML...THIS ACTIVITY WILL

POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH

YOUNGER AND/OR MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS. SOME...ALBEIT

LOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SFC OR NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG

THE SRN FRINGE OF THESE ELEVATED CLUSTERS OVER PARTS OF

IL...IND...KY...AND PERHAPS SW OH. IN THOSE AREAS A THREAT FOR

LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO

LARGE HAIL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE...ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR

TROUGH AND SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO OVERCOME CAP PRODUCE RAPID AND

PERHAPS NEARLY SIMULTANEOUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY

AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM ERN MO/IL SW INTO ERN OK/NE TX.

THE FIRST STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER OK AND VICINITY...LIKELY WILL BE

SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT.

THESE COULD YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE

HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE

LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVE AS FRONTAL UPLIFT

FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT AND CAPPING LIMITS STORM INITIATION IN THE

PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. DRIER/MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...VEERING

LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF

SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX.

FARTHER NE...A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ALONG

WARM FRONT FROM ERN MO INTO IL/IND...WHERE LOW-LVL SHEAR SHOULD BE

MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF SFC LOW. HOWEVER...CINH AND FORCING

CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY ALSO WILL EVOLVE INTO A

QLCS...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG

WIND/POSSIBLE DERECHO CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/KY/TN

TONIGHT. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED MORNING AS

BAND OF 60+ KT SWLY LLJ SWEEPS NEWD IN TANDEM WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM

ACROSS LWR TN AND OH RVR VLYS. THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IN STORM

INTENSITY MAY OCCUR EARLY WED...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND DEGREE OF

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW OF 1.25 - 1.50 INCHES/ SUGGEST THAT AT

LEAST A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST AS FAR E AS THE WRN SLOPES

OF THE APPALACHIANS.

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