Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 NAM already showing an impressive 0-1km EHI bullseye over 7 in west-central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 18z NAM... Just SE of Hannibal, MO along the Mississippi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 From www.wright-weather.com PAH sounding - impressive CAPE Also noticed lapse rates are strong - area is heavily capped on Tuesday - will be curious as to the timing of the front. Seems to be debate on that. Could be a large warm sector - NAM is showing a squall line Tuesday night. EHI values over a large area are impressive. CAP is also impressive over a large area. Could be an interesting risk outline with a decent size moderate. Here is KPAH sounding Also St Louis Nice "loaded-gun" soundings too....Hodo is perfect....hate seeing this while up here but man.....cap is stronger than what I would prefer....as for earlier post about 30's north of warm front I actually like seeing that....The baroclinicity and shear along that front will be insane.......hope everyone has a SAFE and GOOD chase. From what I see everything looks like a classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 A few specs of 10 3km EHI showing up on the 18z NAM over eastern Missouri. With the amount of instability and wind shear, any storm rooted along or just south of the warm front from eastern Missouri to central Illinois should do quite well. A nice low-level jet will keep pumping high theta-e right up against the warm front. EDIT#3: Just noticed the 18z NAM ramps up winds to 50kts at 925mb near Springfield Illinois by 03z. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is quickly shaping up to be yet another impressive setup for MO/IL/I/OH, although the SREF gives me hope that there could be a potential sneaking into the southern MI counties too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is quickly shaping up to be yet another impressive setup for MO/IL/I/OH, although the SREF gives me hope that there could be a potential sneaking into the southern MI counties too. Not if you're on shift it won't....but will keep hoping for you................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Not if you're on shift it won't....but will keep hoping for you................ Oh I think thunderstorms will be fairly certain, which that's all I need to be busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is quickly shaping up to be yet another impressive setup for MO/IL/I/OH, although the SREF gives me hope that there could be a potential sneaking into the southern MI counties too. "Southeast Michigan = The Land of the Dying MCSs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 "Southeast Michigan = The Land of the Dying MCSs" shhhhh Its ok though if we miss out, as its only April and this month has been hyperactive, its only a matter of time before our number is called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 shhhhh Its ok though if we miss out, as its only April and this month has been hyperactive, its only a matter of time before our number is called. Wait until after May 17, I want to get a few good SE Michigan chases in when I'm back for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 good SE Michigan chases oxymoron At least compared to OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 IMBY - 66 mph winds with a thunder storm last week - six separate hail storms over the last seven days - I am wondering if I can top the weather off here at my house Tuesday night with one more event. Certainly looks possible. I currently have 37 degrees with snowflakes mixed with light rain awhile ago. With this amount of cold air available, the amount of warmth progged with this Tues. system, a dryline farther east than normal this spring because of plains drought, and it only being mid April, I think you have a good chance this Tuesday along with the rest of us from now through June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Looks like a possible snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 As previously stated, I will be chasing on Tuesday. If anyone would like to tag along let me know. It's always nice to have someone along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Wait until after May 17, I want to get a few good SE Michigan chases in when I'm back for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Tuesday will be a Springfield IL to LAF special, ordered by Hoosier. In all seriousness I am wondering about April 19, 1996 with tors tracking along I-72 in central IL. This is looking like a decent setup. As cyclone mentioned, one thing I'd watch is that winds above 700 mb are pretty unidirectional, although you can still get some pretty decent tornado events in this part of the country despite that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The one thing I don't like about this setup is the backed-veered-backed wind profile across some parts of the warm sector, particularly closer to the surface low. I'm really not sure how much this factors in, though, because everything else looks absolutely phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Tonight's models look pretty similar to the 12/18z for the most part outside minor differences. From the surface to H7 this setup is spectacular. Would definitely prefer a stronger and more westerly H5 component, but as is this setup should get it done. Surface winds look even more backed to me on the new GFS compared to earlier runs. The very strong surface baroclinicy may help keep winds in the warm sector backed a little more than what's currently forecast too. It'll be very interesting to see what the RUC and other high res models show as we get closer. I have a sneaking suspicion we'll be heading into eastern Missouri Tuesday. Illinois may end up being too capped until sunset or after, so we may end up having to cross the river. As usual the SREF is further east with the best tornado parameters. IMO the SREF is a bit too quick with things sometimes. Probably getting a little too picky this far out, as things will no doubt change by the time we get to Tuesday anyway. In the grand scheme of things this is still looking like a pretty impressive setup. The SPC day3 outlook should be interesting as it may contain some relatively strong wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The one thing I don't like about this setup is the backed-veered-backed wind profile across some parts of the warm sector, particularly closer to the surface low. I'm really not sure how much this factors in, though, because everything else looks absolutely phenomenal. The GFS seems the worst with the backing winds above H7. The NAM keeps the winds above H7 pretty unidirectional. I guess it's all gonna come down to the timing of the H5 jet structure ejection/configuration. Would definitely prefer the NAM's take on the wind fields aloft, but I think even with the GFS there's enough low-level shear to get things cooking. Definitely would prefer a nice shear profile in the lower few km than above H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 A stronger cap on the 0z NAM compared to the 12z run. It's also showing a good deal of precip north of the warm front during the day so the northward progression of that will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 As previously stated, I will be chasing on Tuesday. If anyone would like to tag along let me know. It's always nice to have someone along for the ride. I will probably be in. One more item to clear Tuesday night. Looking to be in Streamwood Monday evening for Bulls party - may stay there overnight to facilitate easy departure Tuesday. Somewhat off topic but finally got to an official LOT spotter seminar last week after years of missing them. Alsopp basically said that forecasts for last Sunday were overhyped. Found that in contrast to Gino's follow up briefing on Tuesday. The differences in general forecasting philosophy are very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 I will probably be in. One more item to clear Tuesday night. Looking to be in Streamwood Monday evening for Bulls party - may stay there overnight to facilitate easy departure Tuesday. Somewhat off topic but finally got to an official LOT spotter seminar last week after years of missing them. Alsopp basically said that forecasts for last Sunday were overhyped. Found that in contrast to Gino's follow up briefing on Tuesday. The differences in general forecasting philosophy are very interesting. Sounds good. When you know for sure let me know and we'll go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Huge hatched 30% area on the new Day 3 outlook with the risk being talked up. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX... ...MIDWEST AND OH/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX... A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. INITIALLY...ELEVATED EARLY DAY TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/ WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY ON THE EDGE OF A NORTHEASTWARD BUILDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. OTHERWISE...BENEATH THE BUILDING CAP...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGGRESSIVELY ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED TO THE EAST OF A LOWER MO VALLEY SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. BENEATH THE STRONG EML/PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON...WITH UPWARDS OF 2000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE. AIDED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS...TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT. SUCH VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN IL...AND A BIT LATER ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHWEST AR IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/VERY STRONG LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT/NEARBY WARM SECTOR WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY LONG/CURVING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AIDED BY 40-55 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. THUS...INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EVOLVING DURING THE EVENING AS SUBSEQUENT QUASI-LINEAR BOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 2 OUTLOOKS. ..GUYER.. 04/17/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 could get pretty hairy if this holds true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Here's some SREF love for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 From the Tulsa Decision Support Page. These are really impressive for a day 3 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Looks like the warm front could be active on Tuesday and the cold front at night in Illinois based on current guidance. How far north will the warm front retreat is the question I'm wondering following this current cold snap with snow predicted for northern IL Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The whole setup still looks pretty good, but has shifted about 50-75 miles further south compared to yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 yikes on 12z GFS for mid mS valley and OH valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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