Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Surface low appears to be pretty close to Jefferson City, Missouri at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Hope you nail it Indy....what program do you use when chasing? Use to use Stormlab but gonna switch to GR2 I think when I get a new laptop next week (coming home for a 3 day visit) since I'm off. I'm a spotter not a chaser, Patrick. Sitting up here in cold Elkhart with a modest t storm an hr. ago. Just like to look at the svr parameter progs and indices and pick a target. Only saw one confirmed funnel cloud in my life and no tors. Maybe some day. Next week looks to be active as well, particularly in central/south IL and IN. Hope it coincides with your visit home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Looks like some storms might be starting to fire west of Jeff City MO as well as in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm a spotter not a chaser, Patrick. Sitting up here in cold Elkhart with a modest t storm an hr. ago. Just like to look at the svr parameter progs and indices and pick a target. Only saw one confirmed funnel cloud in my life and no tors. Maybe some day. Next week looks to be active as well, particularly in central/south IL and IN. Hope it coincides with your visit home. Gotcha....I did both (spotting/chasing/prelim surveys for NWS)...do you use a program/laptop when spotting? I think the area you're picking is good.....and as Beau just posted the dews are nosing into your area (mid 60s+) so you should be good. Pimp is in a good spot too. The closest I have gotten is looking up under a wall cloud, and stebo and I were within 1/4 mile of a tor in Oct 07 or 08 Michigan fall outbreak (EF1). Back in the day (99) was within a 1/2 mile of at the time an F4 (EF5 now....was rated at 209 mph). Hope you get to see one (with it not doing damage to buildings/people) as it is a site to see. Can't even count how many wall clouds/funnels. Lost count years ago so hopefully you and Pimp see some stuff today (and everyone else)........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm quite concerned about the area between LAF-OKK-Marion southward through the area just south of I-70 later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm quite concerned about the area between LAF-OKK-Marion southward through the area just south of I-70 later. I think that could be readily justified tonight with current RUC progs. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I think that could be readily justified tonight with current RUC progs. Something to watch. RUC definitely looking nasty. http://www.kokomo-we...rucstation=KIND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Not sure if many LSX chasers or spotters seen this on their page today....but if not.... Amateur Radio Spotters in St. Louis Area: Use 145.33 The 145.33 amateur radio repeater, made available for use by the National Weather Servcie (NWS) by the St. Charles Amateur Radio Club during severe weather, has very good coverage across the St. Louis Metropolitan area. Amateur radio severe storm spotters are encouraged to bring their reports directly to the NWS through this repeater. It has been very underutilized lately and we would like to see it used more. Net control operators running storm spotter nets on other repeaters, especially on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River, are encouraged to relay their reports to the NWS through 145.33. The NWS will not be able to monitor all the active severe weather nets. Again, amateur radio spotters in the St. Louis Metropolitan area, feel free to send your reports directly to the NWS throught the 145.33 repeater. Note: There is no pl tone on this repeater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Definitely an east-to-west CU line near STL where winds veer from SE to S to SW just ahead of the approaching SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Good update from LSX earlier.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1242 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 .DISCUSSION... /1140 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/ ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ATMOSPHERE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. STOUT CAP CENTERED AROUND 850MB HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM FIRING THUS FAR. WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH WITH SULLIVAN JUMPING 11 DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. LATEST RUC DEPICTS A LITTLE FASTER ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT BELIEVE CAP SHOULD HOLD FIRM UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AND PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT. BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN EASTERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS. BACKED WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND LOCALIZED VORTICITY THAT WILL AID IN TORNADOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA. INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION INTO ONE OR MORE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES ALIGNED AND FORCED BY THE COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 The surface obs near STL are downright impressive, along with the warm sector gravity waves and cap busting storms in Oklahoma. KSTL 191951Z 14010KT 7SM FEW030 28/20 A2950 RMK AO2 SLP984 T02830200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm not understanding why MI is in the slight risk zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm not understanding why MI is in the slight risk zone? Modest elevated instability pokes in there later. Looks like hail would be the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I'm not understanding why MI is in the slight risk zone? Because as the low presses into Michigan tonight you will have strong theata advection and elevated instability and when combined with the shear profile you will have a hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WILL BE FOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A HIGH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONCE THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BROKEN...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER 5 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. NAM/GFS/4KM WRF-NMM ALL AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE KILX CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING...THEN ONLY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF I-57 AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Lets see how long it takes the cells in MO to start popping warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Bright sunshine out here in southeast Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Also noticing the popcorn look to the visible satellite now covering much of the Tornado Watch areas to my west. Looks unstable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 getting a smaller cell going now southwest of STL near Union, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Lets see how long it takes the cells in MO to start popping warnings As you well know if they can root into the boundary layer the show will be on. St. Louis is currently 83/68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 echos out ahead of main line in east central MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 getting a smaller cell going now southwest of STL near Union, MO. According to the mesoscale analysis, surface based CAPE is about 4500 J/kg over St. Louis. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 echos out ahead of main line in east central MO No problem initiating. They are growing. Should be seeing STS warnings/ TWs shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Been sitting here in Raymond Illinois for awhile now. Best parameters near St. Louis heading this way. 79/68 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Near Term Discussion out of IND.. Skies are starting to brighten up here also.. FOCUS IS ON POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSED/DELAYED WARM FRONTAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS FINALLY STARTING TO SURGE NORTH IN EARNEST. FORECAST AND SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT CAP /8-10C AT 700 MB...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF 15C AT 750 MB/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IN WHAT IS A VERY POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY/. THUS...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FIRE COULD QUICKLY BE SEVERE...BUT NOW THINK THAT BEST CHANCE WILL BE WITH STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL...AND THUS REGARDLESS IF A LINEAR STORM MODE IS DOMINANT...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN ANY ROTATING STORMS. REFERENCE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS TONIGHT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN MANY PLACES TO BE REACHED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A STRONGLY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Anything that is a right mover near the boundary could be particularly problematic as that would give it a prolonged period of riding said boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 fir TOR warn of the day BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 331 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ATOKA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT * AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ATOKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Atoka again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 First supercell in MO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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