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April 18-20th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Hope you nail it Indy....what program do you use when chasing? Use to use Stormlab but gonna switch to GR2 I think when I get a new laptop next week (coming home for a 3 day visit) since I'm off.

I'm a spotter not a chaser, Patrick. Sitting up here in cold Elkhart with a modest t storm an hr. ago. Just like to look at the svr parameter progs and indices and pick a target. Only saw one confirmed funnel cloud in my life and no tors. Maybe some day. Next week looks to be active as well, particularly in central/south IL and IN. Hope it coincides with your visit home.

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I'm a spotter not a chaser, Patrick. Sitting up here in cold Elkhart with a modest t storm an hr. ago. Just like to look at the svr parameter progs and indices and pick a target. Only saw one confirmed funnel cloud in my life and no tors. Maybe some day. Next week looks to be active as well, particularly in central/south IL and IN. Hope it coincides with your visit home.

Gotcha....I did both (spotting/chasing/prelim surveys for NWS)...do you use a program/laptop when spotting? I think the area you're picking is good.....and as Beau just posted the dews are nosing into your area (mid 60s+) so you should be good. Pimp is in a good spot too. The closest I have gotten is looking up under a wall cloud, and stebo and I were within 1/4 mile of a tor in Oct 07 or 08 Michigan fall outbreak (EF1). Back in the day (99) was within a 1/2 mile of at the time an F4 (EF5 now....was rated at 209 mph). Hope you get to see one (with it not doing damage to buildings/people) as it is a site to see. Can't even count how many wall clouds/funnels. Lost count years ago so hopefully you and Pimp see some stuff today (and everyone else)....:weight_lift:....:weight_lift:

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Not sure if many LSX chasers or spotters seen this on their page today....but if not....

Amateur Radio Spotters in St. Louis Area: Use 145.33

The 145.33 amateur radio repeater, made available for use by the National Weather Servcie (NWS) by the St. Charles Amateur Radio Club during severe weather, has very good coverage across the St. Louis Metropolitan area. Amateur radio severe storm spotters are encouraged to bring their reports directly to the NWS through this repeater. It has been very underutilized lately and we would like to see it used more.

Net control operators running storm spotter nets on other repeaters, especially on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River, are encouraged to relay their reports to the NWS through 145.33. The NWS will not be able to monitor all the active severe weather nets.

Again, amateur radio spotters in the St. Louis Metropolitan area, feel free to send your reports directly to the NWS throught the 145.33 repeater.

Note: There is no pl tone on this repeater.

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Good update from LSX earlier....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1242 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

/1140 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT

WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. STOUT CAP CENTERED

AROUND 850MB HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM FIRING THUS FAR. WARM FRONT

SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH WITH SULLIVAN JUMPING 11 DEGREES IN THE LAST

HOUR WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT

IS JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER.

LATEST RUC DEPICTS A LITTLE FASTER ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION

BUT BELIEVE CAP SHOULD HOLD FIRM UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS A LITTLE

CLOSER AND PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT. BECOMING INCREASINGLY

CONCERNED FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN EASTERN

MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE WHEN

CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS. BACKED WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND LOCALIZED VORTICITY THAT WILL AID IN

TORNADOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES

OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA.

INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION INTO ONE OR MORE

QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES ALIGNED

AND FORCED BY THE COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF

TORNADOES...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD

DAMAGING WINDS.

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The surface obs near STL are downright impressive, along with the warm sector gravity waves and cap busting storms in Oklahoma.

KSTL 191951Z 14010KT 7SM FEW030 28/20 A2950 RMK AO2 SLP984 T02830200 :weight_lift:

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING

IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL

TRACK E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING A

ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF

SEVERE WILL BE FOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW

TRACK...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE

LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY

AND A HIGH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR.

ONCE THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BROKEN...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL

INITIATE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER 5 PM. LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NAM/GFS/4KM WRF-NMM ALL AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE KILX CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE

THEREFORE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS

EVENING...THEN ONLY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF I-57

AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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Near Term Discussion out of IND.. Skies are starting to brighten up here also..

FOCUS IS ON POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS

THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA

SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSED/DELAYED WARM FRONTAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS

TODAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS FINALLY STARTING TO SURGE NORTH IN

EARNEST. FORECAST AND SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION

DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT CAP /8-10C AT 700 MB...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL

ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF 15C AT 750 MB/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INTO

THE WARM SECTOR. THIS HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IN WHAT IS A VERY

POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE /MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES UP TO

4000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY/. THUS...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTATIONS

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN

FIRE COULD QUICKLY BE SEVERE...BUT NOW THINK THAT BEST CHANCE WILL

BE WITH STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND

OVERNIGHT.

BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL...AND THUS

REGARDLESS IF A LINEAR STORM MODE IS DOMINANT...TORNADO THREAT

WILL REMAIN HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT

AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL

ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO

REMAIN A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN ANY ROTATING STORMS. REFERENCE

HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS TONIGHT WITH EXTREMELY STRONG

TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGH

TEMPS IN MANY PLACES TO BE REACHED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR

EVENING...WITH A STRONGLY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROGRESSION

OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

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fir TOR warn of the day

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

331 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL ATOKA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ATOKA...MOVING

EAST AT 35 MPH.

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