Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Even though the focus is on the current event, I thought I would get this going since there is potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 yeah the 00z GFS shows multiple chances with better moisture. Very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 For still being several days out, the models have been remarkably consistent in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 April 15th 12z and 18z GFS continue the trend. In fact 18z shows CAPE of 1250 to 2500 from north to south in IL, dews in mid 60's through much of the state, low LCL's, and 40-50 knots shear with a surface low near Quad Cities at 00z Wed. Something to watch for consistency indeed in this active spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 April 15th 12z and 18z GFS continue the trend. In fact 18z shows CAPE of 1250 to 2500 from north to south in IL, dews in mid 60's through much of the state, low LCL's, and 40-50 knots shear with a surface low near Quad Cities at 00z Wed. Something to watch for consistency indeed in this active spring. Haven't looked at the overall setup but the GFS forecast soundings across the area look very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Haven't looked at the overall setup but the GFS forecast soundings across the area look very impressive. Haven't had a chance to look. Do the forecast soundings from the GFS look impressive for Indiana??? (specifically Southern Indiana) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Just now starting to take a look at this event. Monday looks very capped on the new GFS over the Plains. Tuesday looks a bit more interesting. Decent parameters over central Illinois ahead of the surface low with respectable moisture. Low level wind shear looks pretty nice, but things flatten out pretty quickly above H7. From central Illinois late Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 00z GFS leads me again to believe that nothing is going to happen here on Monday. Doubt the SPC even throws in a See Text down here; I just see no signs of anything being able to initiate. Tuesday to me looks like a squall line threat down here, although I can already tell it's possible that, like with every other system that came through here over the last two months, the convection could fire just to the east of Norman. I definitely think there will be a fairly big wind damage threat in the Southern Plains on Tuesday though, with more discrete storms possible over areas such as MO/IL/IN...closer to the low where surface winds are backed somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 I already cleared my schedule for a possible chase on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The NAM def stronger than the GFS, 12z runs will be interesting to see. stinks I would be able to chase for probably another two weeks with work/school and being in Louisville next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The NAM def stronger than the GFS, 12z runs will be interesting to see. stinks I would be able to chase for probably another two weeks with work/school and being in Louisville next weekend. A stronger version of the GFS will definitely get the job done. Will definitely be following model updates over the next few days. Not sure if I'll be able to chase Tuesday or not yet. If the event looks decent by Monday I should be able to weasel my way out of work on Tuesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The NAM def stronger than the GFS, 12z runs will be interesting to see. stinks I would be able to chase for probably another two weeks with work/school and being in Louisville next weekend. Does that mean the warm sector extends further north as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 00z GFS leads me again to believe that nothing is going to happen here on Monday. Doubt the SPC even throws in a See Text down here; I just see no signs of anything being able to initiate. Tuesday to me looks like a squall line threat down here, although I can already tell it's possible that, like with every other system that came through here over the last two months, the convection could fire just to the east of Norman. I definitely think there will be a fairly big wind damage threat in the Southern Plains on Tuesday though, with more discrete storms possible over areas such as MO/IL/IN...closer to the low where surface winds are backed somewhat. Probably a good assessment when looking at the 12z NAM this morning. It wants to pop a surface low across NW OK for a time it looks like, but it just ends up elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Central Illinois is still looking good on the 12z NAM for late Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 NAM sounding for central Illinois west of Springfield. Not too shabby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Pretty impressive for so far out on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 NAM sounding for central Illinois west of Springfield. Not too shabby! hmmm the point and click sounding/hodo that I got just northwest of SPI is much better with backed sfc winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 need the sfc low to come north and west so it can set a warm front along I-88 and I can chase after I get out of work at 4 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 A while back I posted about how I had rarely seen a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 9 C/km on a forecast sounding in this area. Well, the 12z GFS came in with a whopping 9.13 at 00z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 hmmm the point and click sounding/hodo that I got just northwest of SPI is much better with backed sfc winds. Good call. I was just a little southwest of that. That area is right on the nose of the higher cape values. Nice. I just cleared my work obligations for Tuesday, so it's a go for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 northwest of SPI off the 12z NAM for tuesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 I'm sure it will change but the orientation of the warm front the 12z NAM is pretty parallel to what storm motions would be. really like that higher theta-e air and moisture pooling along and just south of the warm front near the sfc low in western IL on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Good call. I was just a little southwest of that. That area is right on the nose of the higher cape values. Nice. I just cleared my work obligations for Tuesday, so it's a go for me. Maybe i'll see you out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 You gotta love the upper 30s over far northwest Illinois to low 80s over west-central Illinois on the NAM. Incredible surface baroclinicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Maybe i'll see you out there. Hell yeah! We'll be chasing in a black 2010 F-150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 You gotta love the upper 30s over far northwest Illinois to low 80s over west-central Illinois on the NAM. Incredible surface baroclinicy. ya one of the things I dont like lol alot of cold air at the sfc north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 from SPC FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A MODEST DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS AMONGST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME EARLY MORNING HAIL...SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OH VALLEYS...PERHAPS CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/MO. GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/VERTICAL SHEAR...WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS SEEM LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 check out next weekend on the GFS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Tuesday will be a Springfield IL to LAF special, ordered by Hoosier. In all seriousness I am wondering about April 19, 1996 with tors tracking along I-72 in central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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