Heavy, heavy rain...and some thunder!

[weatherwiz]

After parts of the region were hit pretty hard with torrential rains and even some thunder/lightning the next storm system is knocking on the door as the potential will exist for another deluge as another low pressure system tracks toward us from the west. This will in fact be the same system that may be responsible for a nasty severe weather outbreak tomorrow across a portion of the Plains where very large hail and even some strong tornadoes will be possible.

As the system moves from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley into Canada this will eventually work to swing a warm front northward, the warm front probably won't make it very far as it probably stalls around or south of the NYC metro area but we will see a pretty intense LLJ develop from the east. This will work to advect a good deal of moisture into the region from the Atlantic.

While the strength of level of WAA in the lower levels of the atmosphere may not be as strong as yesterday the level of CAA and cooling in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may actually be a bit greater. This may yield to the development of some elevated instability which could help with the development of some elevated convection. It should also be noted that as the system approaches there will already be convection ongoing. This convection could either work to somewhat sustain itself (becoming elevated instead of sfc-based though) or try to redevelop depending on how strong the support is aloft and if there is any aid from the nose of the MLJ or RRQ of the ULJ.

One issue right now appears to be timing, does rain make it into our area Saturday afternoon or does it hold off until the late evening to even Sunday morning? The NAM/GFS have some major differences within the timing of the rain but it does appear the models have been trending slower which does make sense. Cut-offs tend to get pushed too quickly by the models and there is a strong area of high pressure off to our northeast which will also help to keep the system pushed back a bit.

Winds could also get fairly gusty as well, especially out in eastern MA and the Cape area as the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the northeast and the sfc low off to the west tightens up a bit...this will also help to increase the winds aloft as well, especially with the LLJ.

There could be some issues with flooding, especially if the areas that were hit hardest last night/today see the brunt of the action again, however, this go around more of the action may be a bit further to the west.

[Ginx snewx]

Sat night and Sunday look like washouts with wind per Euro

[CoastalWx]

The stuff out in OK is pretty sick. I gotta get out there at some point.

[Ginx snewx]

The stuff out in OK is pretty sick. I gotta get out there at some point.

Nice CU

[CoastalWx]

Nice CU

I've developed an interest in severe over the last two years, for whatever reason. The whole evolution of supercells and tornadoes, fascinates me.

[Ginx snewx]

I've developed an interest in severe over the last two years, for whatever reason. The whole evolution of supercells and tornadoes, fascinates me.

I had 8 tornado warnings in OK alone on my radarscope app at one time.

[moneypitmike]

I've developed an interest in severe over the last two years, for whatever reason. The whole evolution of supercells and tornadoes, fascinates me.

It's due to the subliminal power of Paul's exclamation points and solid caps.

Guess we have some more April showers in the offing.

44.9/34

[ski MRG]

It's due to the subliminal power of Paul's exclamation points and solid caps.

Guess we have some more April showers in the offing.

44.9/34

Showers Sunday will be fine. I'm burning the remnants of a huge pine that I took down. Looking forward to next Winter.

[CoastalWx]

It's due to the subliminal power of Paul's exclamation points and solid caps.

Guess we have some more April showers in the offing.

44.9/34

I'm a winter wx guy at heart and always have been. Convection is a big deal for the aviation community, so I guess that's caused me to dig into convection a little more. I've read up on a bunch of stuff over the last two years, just to familiarize myself with certain processes. Obviously, this part of the country stinks aside from maybe 1 event per year, but modern technology allows one to live vicariously.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm a winter wx guy at heart and always have been. Convection is a big deal for the aviation community, so I guess that's caused me to dig into convection a little more. I've read up on a bunch of stuff over the last two years, just to familiarize myself with certain processes. Obviously, this part of the country stinks aside from maybe 1 event per year, but modern technology allows one to live vicariously.

Crazy night down there, major damage and injuries.

[weatherMA]

Crazy night down there, major damage and injuries.

Big time wow. 102 people in that thread tonight.

[OKpowdah]

The stuff out in OK is pretty sick. I gotta get out there at some point.

Absolutely incredible watching this line of supercells rapidly developing as the cap broke. This had better happen again in 6 weeks and a little further west

[TalcottWx]

Absolutely incredible watching this line of weenies rapidly developing as they were aroused. This had better happen again often

[TalcottWx]

I've developed an interest in men over the last two years, for whatever reason. The whole evolution of homosexuality, fascinates me.

Hmm

[Logan11]

By the time it gets here it's just some cold heavy rain from the occlusion..could be a few sleet pellets at the start in some spots... The main rain event looks like it's in and out in maybe eight hours tops.

Hmm

[weatherwiz]

By the time it gets here it's just some cold heavy rain from the occlusion..could be a few sleet pellets at the start in some spots... The main rain event looks like it's in and out in maybe eight hours tops.

Ray and I enjoyed seeing you at the bar last night in Boston!

[Ginx snewx]

Ray and I enjoyed seeing you at the bar last night in Boston!

When you went in the ladies room to pee did you have your Miley wig on?

[weatherwiz]

When you went in the ladies room to pee did you have your Miley wig on?

No.

I just misjudged how close I was in proximity to where the men's entrance was.

[Cold Miser]

Ray and I enjoyed seeing you at the bar last night in Boston!

YOU were in Boston last night? How did you manage to get there, on a weeknight, no less?

Walk to bus . . . bus to train?

Too bad you had to be there for a total fail event from the Bruins. That town is a great place to be when a big sports win happens. Although, I suppose at this point, the 3 professional sports teams will take any win they can get.

[weatherwiz]

YOU were in Boston last night? How did you manage to get there, on a weeknight, no less?

Walk to bus . . . bus to train?

Too bad you had to be there for a total fail event from the Bruins. That town is a great place to be when a big sports win happens. Although, I suppose at this point, the 3 professional sports teams will take any win they can get.

My friend drove me to Riverside and I took the T into Boston then I took the T back to Riverside and my friend picked me up.

Boston is amazing, especially yesterday it's so lively. Hartford blows.

[Cold Miser]

My friend drove me to Riverside and I took the T into Boston then I took the T back to Riverside and my friend picked me up.

Boston is amazing, especially yesterday it's so lively. Hartford blows.

Nice. Although not nice for your friend. What does he do while you're in the city?

"Hartford Blows" - From what experience I've had with Hartford nightlife I have to agree. Seems like the place shuts down at 5:00pm, although I've heard about a neighborhood that has a few good bars within walking distance of each other. Both Providence and Worcester are more fun at night than Hartford.

[Logan11]

Hmmm you must have been drunk. I don't get anywhere near BOS sports fans.

Ray and I enjoyed seeing you at the bar last night in Boston!

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice. Although not nice for your friend. What does he do while you're in the city?

"Hartford Blows" - From what experience I've had with Hartford nightlife I have to agree. Seems like the place shuts down at 5:00pm, although I've heard about a neighborhood that has a few good bars within walking distance of each other. Both Providence and Worcester are more fun at night than Hartford.

Are those the spots you find the "ladies"?

[Typhoon Tip]

This trough translation looks like a boring run-of-the-mill water wall with wind, followed by more of the same. Although, the synoptics does bear some intrigue for me in how - particularly the Euro runs - show that it sweeps up warmer troposphere unilaterally on the backside ... seemingly shunting the -850s seasonally polarward (not saying they won't return for short stints, just more convincingly so). For that the whole of the synoptic evolution is somewhat interesting. As far as sensibly, meh -

Funny, I just got done mentioning the -NAO emerging in that other thread....so we'll see how the battle goes down between these deterministic solutions.

What do the Euro Weeklies have in store? - just curious.

[Cold Miser]

Are those the spots you find the "ladies"?

Which ladies?

[Logan11]

Well the negative NAO has underperformed all Spring. Even I (the die hard snow monger) am just about ready to change my sig. to a final season snowfall and move on...... JB and others were out to lunch on the forecast of a negative NAO.

This trough translation looks like a boring run-of-the-mill water wall with wind, followed by more of the same. Although, the synoptics does bear some intrigue for me in how - particularly the Euro runs - show that it sweeps up warmer troposphere unilaterally on the backside ... seemingly shunting the -850s seasonally polarward (not saying they won't return for short stints, just more convincingly so). For that the whole of the synoptic evolution is somewhat interesting. As far as sensibly, meh -

Funny, I just got done mentioning the -NAO emerging in that other thread....so we'll see how the battle goes down between these deterministic solutions.

What do the Euro Weeklies have in store? - just curious.

[ski MRG]

Let's face it. We're entering the dead zone for the next 6 months. The weather will be milk toasty boring. Spring is the worst. Bleh.

[Logan11]

It's a really disconcerting time of the year because there is so much lawn work, field mowing, etc ahead of me.... Ughh. You get all that stuff done for the winter and then three months later it's all staring you in the face again. Only Kevin looks forward to lawn mowing. Oh well..around late July the light appears at the end of the tunnel.

Let's face it. We're entering the dead zone for the next 6 months. The weather will be milk toasty boring. Spring is the worst. Bleh.

[Damage In Tolland]

This trough translation looks like a boring run-of-the-mill water wall with wind, followed by more of the same. Although, the synoptics does bear some intrigue for me in how - particularly the Euro runs - show that it sweeps up warmer troposphere unilaterally on the backside ... seemingly shunting the -850s seasonally polarward (not saying they won't return for short stints, just more convincingly so). For that the whole of the synoptic evolution is somewhat interesting. As far as sensibly, meh -

Funny, I just got done mentioning the -NAO emerging in that other thread....so we'll see how the battle goes down between these deterministic solutions.

What do the Euro Weeklies have in store? - just curious.

Not that cold..sort of keeps the greatest below normal over the upper midwest and rockies.

[Damage In Tolland]

Which ladies?

You know..the ones where your wedding band sneaks into you pocket..those ladies