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April 15th Severe weather thread Tornado outbreak possible


janetjanet998

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Thank you for posting mesoscale discussion #437. It's not available on the SPC website for me, despite much cookie deleting and refreshing.

EDIT: Fixed now. I hate it when that happens.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1250 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

WESTERN KENTUCKY

EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

COLD

FRONT AND WITHIN DRY SLOT OF INTENSE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.

DAYTIME HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 500 MB

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -20 C WILL RESULT IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE

ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN

COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL FAVOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1253 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALC091-151815-

/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110415T1815Z/

MARENGO AL-

1253 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL MARENGO

COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THOMASTON...OR 6

MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

1259 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1256 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A

CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR THOMASTON...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

100 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

MSC029-049-121-127-151830-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0066.000000T0000Z-110415T1830Z/

HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-SIMPSON MS-COPIAH MS-

100 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR NORTH

CENTRAL COPIAH...NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON...SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND

SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES...

AT 1255 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO CROSSING INTERSTATE

55 NEAR CRYSTAL SPRINGS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CRYSTAL

SPRINGS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WHITES BY 105 PM CDT...

STAR BY 115 PM CDT...

PINEY WOODS BY 120 PM CDT...

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

113 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

MSC069-151845-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110415T1845Z/

KEMPER MS-

113 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR KEMPER

COUNTY...

AT 113 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO

TRACK A STRONG TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUFF SPRINGS

MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

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The cell currently south of Brandon, MS and the one to the southwest are in a really good environment, and will continue to be so for quite some time. There is uninterrupted inflow from the south, with strong diabatic heating from all the clear sky to its east. Also, although the LLJ has been shifting eastward with time, it should slow its eastward progression substantially over the next few hours. This should continue to provide a low-level shear environment favorable for significant tornadoes. These cells are likely to be the main show over the next 3 hours or so as they head into east-central MS and west-central AL.

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very storng rotation on the NW side of Dekalb MS(pop 1000)

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

121 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

MSC069-151845-

/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110415T1845Z/

KEMPER MS-

121 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR KEMPER

COUNTY...

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO

TRACK A TORNADO. THE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED ON THE GROUND BY

MSU SPOTTERS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DE KALB MOVING EAST AT

45 MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

125 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 120 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 20 MILES WEST

OF EMELLE...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

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Insane.

* AT 120 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 20 MILES WEST

OF EMELLE...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GEIGER...PANOLA...NEW WEST

GREEN...PLEASANT RIDGE. TAKE COVER NOW.

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Insane.

* AT 120 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 20 MILES WEST

OF EMELLE...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GEIGER...PANOLA...NEW WEST

GREEN...PLEASANT RIDGE. TAKE COVER NOW.

That is wicked.

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watch update

0130 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MS...CENTRAL-ERN LA...AL...EXTREME WRN GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 140...141...

VALID 151830Z - 152030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 140...141...CONTINUES.

CONTINUE W 141. REPLACEMENT WW FOR 140 IS LIKELY BEFORE SCHEDULED

20Z EXPIRATION...BECAUSE SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL BEYOND THAT

TIME AND PRIOR TO COLD FROPA.

18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS

NERN...CENTRAL AND SWRN LA...WITH WARM FRONT ANALYZED ROUGHLY 30 NNE

TCL...TCL...GZH...NSE AND LIFTING NEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL

AL. PRE COLD-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE IS PIVOTING EWD ACROSS

SWRN/CENTRAL MS WHILE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS SERN LA. AS THESE

PROCESSES CONTINUES...FAVORABLY BUOYANT AND STRONGLY HEATED AIR

MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...WILL OVERSPREAD

PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF CENTRAL/SRN AND EVENTUALLY ERN AL...THROUGH

LATE AFTERNOON. NRN FRINGE OF STRONGEST HEATING IS EVIDENT IN SFC

DATA AND VIS IMAGERY ROUGHLY ALONG JAN-EET LINE...AND HAS MOVED N OF

MEI. STORMS WITHIN AND JUST N OF THAT BOUNDARY MAY ENCOUNTER

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/ASCENT. THIS INCLUDES LONG-LIVED

SUPERCELL NOW MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS SUMTER/GREENE/HALE/TUSCALOOSA

COUNTIES AL THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING TORNADO IN JAN AREA AROUND

16Z...AND MORE RECENTLY...REPORT OF LARGE TORNADO IN KEMPER COUNTY

AT 1820Z. UPSHEAR SUPERCELLS S AND SW JAN ALSO MAY INTERACT WITH

THAT BOUNDARY. CELLS OVER SERN MS AND SRN AL MAY ENCOUNTER WARM

FRONT...WHERE LOW-LEVEL BACKING/VORTICITY/HODOGRAPHS WILL BE

RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. BOTH REGIMES MAY SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF LOCALLY

ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH REACHING 500 J/KG.

HOWEVER...STG LOW-MIDLEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THREAT

EVEN AS FAR W AS S-CENTRAL LA.

SVR POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS WRN GA DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS

WITH CELLS WELL NE OF SFC WARM FRONT...BUT IN REGIME OF ELEVATED WAA

AND STRENGTHENING BUOYANCY/SHEAR ALOFT...SUPPORTING OCNL HAIL.

BETTER-ORGANIZED THREAT THERE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON

INTO EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2011

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

139 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALC063-119-151930-

/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-110415T1930Z/

SUMTER AL-GREENE AL-

139 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN

SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

..TORNADO EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR GEIGER...PANOLA

NEW WEST

GREEN...PLEASANT RIDGE. TAKE COVER NOW. STORMS REPORTS OF A HALF

MILE WIDE TORNADO!

AT 134 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM

SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMELLE...OR 23 MILES

NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

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