BrentO Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Looking at the KEVV sounding for 00z sat shows between 850-500mb lapse rate of 6.7C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I wonder if we will have our first High risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Looking at the KEVV sounding for 00z sat shows between 850-500mb lapse rate of 6.7C/km That could be an area to watch. I'll be surprised if there's anything too exciting north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refd_1000m_f25.gif ............ looks like we get the stuff that is currently in AR out of here by noon-ish, then the next round around 7-ish pm. could get intresting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 http://www.emc.ncep....d_1000m_f25.gif ............ looks like we get the stuff that is currently in AR out of here by noon-ish, then the next round around 7-ish pm. could get intresting. some of the most memorable outbreaks for Middle TN have had morning convection that departs by noon and things get a chance to destabilize again and then BOOM! 4/16/98, 4/6/06, and 4/10/09 come to mind right away. I'm still waiting for the make up from missing Good Friday in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MS AND AL ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...TN AND OH VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS FRIDAY...REACHING THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER NRN MO WHILE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SERN STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ..SERN STATES SLY TRAJECTORIES EAST OF THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SERN STATES WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MS INTO CNTRL/SRN AL. POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING STORMS FROM WRN TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG SRN END OF MCS AND NEW STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS MS AND AL AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONGER LLJ WILL SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS EARLY FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD EJECTING LEAD VORT LOBE. HOWEVER...LLJ MAY STRENGTHEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MS/AL WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...MAINTAINING LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN WARM SECTOR AND NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES AS STORMS REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..TN THROUGH MID MS AND OH VALLEYS PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WRN TN...ERN MO INTO SRN AND CNTRL IL IN WAKE OF EARLY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX. DIABATIC WARMING AND NWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF JET MAX ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL PROMOTE STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FROM WRN TN NWD THROUGH ERN MO AND IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL/COHEN.. 04/15/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 very intresting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 That is one of the weirdest looking tornado maps I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBriedis Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Thumbs up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 That is one of the weirdest looking tornado maps I've ever seen. It looks like someone is giving a thumbs-up sign. Now I'm sure there are more inappropriate comparisons to be made, but I cant think of any right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I've heard it said that Iowa has a nose, well if that's the case that thumb is picking Iowa's nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 It looks like someone is giving a thumbs-up sign. Now I'm sure there are more inappropriate comparisons to be made, but I cant think of any right now. something about viagra comes to mind but, yes on a serious note, it is an odd looking Tornado map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Was it eastern or stormtrack that has(d) an "interesting" SPC map thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Earlier I thought if I was free I would go down and hang around Mt. Vernon in southern IL, too bad I have to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Looks like I am in a position to possibly see some strong storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Something must be going on in central Arkansas, the repeater for Skywarn and all the scanners around Little Rock went offline over the past 30 minutes WWUS54 KLZK 150726 SVSLZK SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 226 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 ARC001-025-039-053-069-079-085-117-119-150800- /O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110415T0800Z/ CLEVELAND AR-LINCOLN AR-DALLAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-GRANT AR-ARKANSAS AR- PULASKI AR-LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR- 226 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PRAIRIE...LONOKE...EASTERN PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT... ...EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED IN LONOKE COUNTY... AT 224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM METO TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENGLAND TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAMONT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE... STUTTGART... PINE BLUFF... LONOKE... LITTLE ROCK AFB... JACKSONVILLE... HAZEN... WHITE HALL... WARBRITTON... WABBASEKA... ULM... TOLTEC MOUNDS SP... TERRY LOCK AND DAM... STUTTGART MUNI ARPT... SOUTH BEND... SISEMORE... SCOTT... RICHARDSON... REDFIELD... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 198. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 46. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Big time winds East of Little Rock, only a couple hours from Memphis. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 240 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... SOUTHERN WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTHERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHEASTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 330 AM CDT * AT 238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF MCCREANOR...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LONOKE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. IN ADDITION...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE... THURMAN... HUNTER... GEORGETOWN... DES ARC... BARRETTSVILLE... ZENT... WIVILLE... VINITY CORNER... PENROSE... MORTON... MCCLELLAND... JASMINE... HOWELL... HILLEMAN... HICKORY PLAINS... HAYLEY... GREGORY... GRAYS... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 249 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... MONROE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... EASTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 345 AM CDT * AT 247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAZEN TO 6 MILES NORTH OF STUTTGART MUNI ARPT TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STUTTGART... BRINKLEY... WOODVILLE... WHITEFIELD... ULM... ST. CHARLES... ROE... RICHARDSON... PEPPERS LANDING... PALMER... LITTLE BAYOU METO PARK... LANGFORD... HOLLY GROVE... HALLSVILLE... GRADY... GILLETT... FREDONIA (BISCOE)... ENGLISH LAKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Btw looking back at Base Velocity from about a half hour ago, I wouldn't be surprised if Little Rock ended up with widespread wind damage, Huge core of very strong winds blew right through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 0210 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW DOWNTOWN LITTLE RO 34.76N 92.27W 04/15/2011 PULASKI AR FIRE DEPT/RESCUE NUMEROUS TREES HAVE FALLEN WITH SEVERAL TREES ON HOUSES. GAS LINE RUPTURES HAVE OCCURED AND TWO HOUSES ARE ON FIRE. 1250 AM TSTM WND DMG CRYSTAL SPRINGS 34.52N 93.33W 04/15/2011 GARLAND AR EMERGENCY MNGR *** 2 FATAL *** THE TOP OF A TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME...KILLING TWO OCCUPANTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 0219 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 S SCOTT 34.61N 92.10W 04/15/2011 PULASKI AR AMATEUR RADIO TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING PARTS OF HWY 161. A TRAILER HAS BEEN DAMAGED AND FIRE AND RESUCE IS ON THE SCENE. THERE ARE SEVERAL TRAPPED OCCUPANTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Gotta love just looking at the whole system on radar. Looks like a hurricane rolling thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 The 0Z SPC WRF has the best handle on the current convective evolution. However, it and almost all the short-range guidance (maybe save the RUC) are too slow with this squall line by about an hour. We have yet to see how this may impact tomorrow's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 From KTUL in Tulsa's ticker. 6:08 a.m. - Sheriff's office confirms at least three have died in tornadoes in Pulaski County, Arkansas, just east of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Does the Talladega Speedway have any sort of a shelter for the thousands out there already tenting and RVing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS709 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011MSC051-053-163-151300-/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110415T1300Z/HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-YAZOO MS-709 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR NORTHCENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND HOLMES COUNTIES...AT 709 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TOTRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THISSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOUISE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SILVERCITY...EDEN...THORNTON...COXBURG...TOLARVILLE...TCHULA...HOWARD...EBENEZER...BROZVILLE...EMORY...FRANKLIN...BOWLING GREEN...MCMILLAN...WEST...LEXINGTON AND DURANTSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN706 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011TNC023-039-071-077-109-151245-/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110415T1245Z/DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-CHESTER TN-HARDIN TN-MCNAIRY TN-706 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDTFOR MCNAIRY...HARDIN...EASTERN CHESTER...HENDERSON AND DECATURCOUNTIES...AT 706 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TOINDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS INEXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDINGFROM HURON TO EASTVIEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILESSOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SELMER...MOVING EASTAT 45 MPH.LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ACTON...ADAMSVILLE...BETHEL SPRINGS...BLUE GOOSE...CRUMP...DARDEN...DECATURVILLE...EASTVIEW...ENVILLE...FINGER...GUYS...JACKS CREEK...LEXINGTON AND MCNAIRY. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BEECH LAKE...PIN OAK LAKE AND PINE LAKE.TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 areas along MS river up into S IL should clear out nicely with strong 500mb low just NW new watch south part TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 735 AM UNTIL 300 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 139... DISCUSSION...NE-SW MS/LA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM MAY BREAK INTO MORE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT/MOISTENING LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE...AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION. 12Z KJAN SOUNDING AND UPSTREAM WIND PROFILES SUGGEST WW AREA WILL HAVE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS. THESE MAY YIELD A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND HAIL. STORMS IN NRN AL MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Morning video - six killed in storms overnight http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42600584 herre were likley several tornaodes in AR overnight i think, pretty stong couplets were embedded withing the system...we will have to wait until surveys today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND MS ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ..SYNOPSIS POTENT CNTRL KS UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL MO THIS EVE BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO CNTRL/NRN IL EARLY SAT. AS THIS OCCURS...BAND OF 75+ KT 500 MB FLOW ON S SIDE OF SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY...AND NE ACROSS THE TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...STRONG LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR KTOP SHOULD MOVE NNE TO NEAR KMKE BY 12Z SAT AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY...AND ENE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A NE-SW SQLN THAT EVOLVED FROM STORMS OVER OK AND AR YESTERDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS/AL BY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF RELATIVELY RICH RETURN FLOW WILL ADVANCE ENE ACROSS MS THIS MORNING...ACROSS AL LATER TODAY...AND INTO GA TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. ..SERN STATES SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DECELERATING SQLN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY RICH /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION. COUPLED WITH MODEST DAYTIME HEATING...THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG LIKELY BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL. ONGOING SQLN NOW IN NRN/WRN MS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY ENEWD THROUGH MIDDAY. THE NRN PART MAY SOMEWHAT WEAKEN AND BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED UPON ENCOUNTERING PARTLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN NRN AL. BUT STORMS IN THE SRN PART MAY INTENSIFY AND BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE AS THEY ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR EWD INTO AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VLYS TODAY AHEAD OF KS/MO UPR LOW...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN/OVER MS/AL TO MAINTAIN LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION A TOWARD MIDDAY. POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS POSING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WIND...AND HAIL. ONE OR TWO OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-LIVED GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ONE OR TWO DISCRETE STORMS WILL EVOLVE IN THE MOISTURE-RICH/STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER PARTS OF MS AND AL. THE SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL PERSIST...ALBEIT IN A SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED FORM...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN PROGRESSES E INTO GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. ..TN INTO THE MID MS AND OH VLYS PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD NEWD FROM ACROSS ERN MO AND ERN AR INTO PARTS OF IL...WRN KY...AND WRN TN IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT SQLN. DAYTIME HEATING AND MID-LVL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 15C/ ATOP LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS /WITH UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS/ SHOULD YIELD A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR VORT NOW OVER NE OK WILL OVERSPREAD REGION AROUND TIME OF MAX HEATING. THIS SHOULD FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM FAR ERN MO/NE AR INTO WRN TN...WRN KY AND SRN/CNTRL IL BY AFTERNOON. AMPLE DEEP SSWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH PROFILES EXPECTED TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN AND OH VLYS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Line over MS may be trying to break up..other mroe discrete stuff developing over LA Jackson VAD very favorable for rotating storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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