opengeo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Initialized: In the future, please add something to the discussion. Simply being the first to post a model run without adding some analysis will result in deleted posts, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Soaker incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well see...probably no changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 just looking at the h5 maps comparing the 78 to 84 hr, the block is a little further east, allowing for not as robust a ridge and flatening out the trof somewhat downstream over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Incredible differences between 00z and 12z--at 96 hours the two look nothing alike, with the shortwave significantly further east on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Incredible differences between 00z and 12z--at 96 hours the two look nothing alike, with the shortwave significantly further east on the 12z. Take a peak at the 06z h5 at 102 and 12z at 96 h5 in the NE... closed low gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Incredible differences between 00z and 12z--at 96 hours the two look nothing alike, with the shortwave significantly further east on the 12z. another whole new feature is that bombing low east of maine, which wasnt there at 6z nor 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 the ridging over the central U.S. definitely looks a bit more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 hr 132, the low just east of maine just looks like its squashing everthing to the south, this may be the feature the 0z euro had with that low pressure that gets cut off for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 yup hr 141, looks pretty close to what the 0z euro was showing, the bombing low over maine cuts off, while the ridge out west hooks up with the -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Where's the help from the SE ridge when we need it. Clipper dries out on this run. Lets see what the GFS does with the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 hr 150 timeframe looks interesting. It pops a low off the se coast, but the flow around the cutoff over maine crushes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Man, the east based NAO + the strong block are really killing our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The pattern looks like something we would see last year, but with the la nina, the subtropical jet is dead. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the models will bring back the storm in a few days. I think they did that last season with one of those storms. They showed something in the longer range, but then completely got rid of it in a few days only to bring it back by Day 3-4. It would be a shame to waste such a good blocky pattern without a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What's the GFS doing at 174 hours. Looks like it develops a norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 storm number 2 looks lit was just torn to pieces while trying to come out of the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 storm number 2 looks lit was just torn to pieces while trying to come out of the sw the h5 at 162 is LOL... it looks like a big middle finger in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 storm number 2 looks lit was just torn to pieces while trying to come out of the sw Yep this sucks. Absolute waste on this run. 2 storm chances blown. Is that low over NY killing everyones chances? Kinda like what that low did up north last year during the Feb 5 event that killed NYC north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yep this sucks. Absolute waste on this run. 2 storm chances blown. Is that low over NY killing everyones chances? Kinda like what that low did up north last year during the Feb 5 event that killed NYC north? just my guess, is i think so. With that cut off there it doesnt allow for any ridging along the coast, its just flat, from the flow around the cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 It's just frustrating because we have a -NAO and -AO + a block. The -PNA isn't helping at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ugliness. Starting to lose faith in getting anything in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 well by 156hrs on the 12z, (0z on 12/7) simliar solution as the 0z run... Retrograding low kills it. Not a good back to back to back (0,6,12z) runs for snow lovers... Tombo, what's up bro? Still in the d-hill area? Thanks for the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 well by 156hrs on the 12z, (0z on 12/7) simliar solution as the 0z run... Retrograding low kills it. Not a good back to back to back (0,6,12z) runs for snow lovers... Tombo, what's up bro? Still in the d-hill area? Thanks for the PBP yep unfortunately...yea thats my feeling is that cut off over maine. I think that is a new piece that was introduce last night by the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 gfs locks in the cold in the 10-16 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 with most models showing the ULL retrograding over ME, any chance of a storm is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not giving up at this point. Just like we couldn't get too excited over the storm runs this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I found the storm http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_300l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I found the storm http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_300l.gif Too bad we're 300 hours out again. I think we get accumulating snow before the pattern moderates again. Just don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Too bad we're 300 hours out again. I think we get accumulating snow before the pattern moderates again. Just don't know how much. Then there's another storm threat at the very end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think alot is going to be dependent on this first S/W that HPC mentions and what exactly happens with that piece of energy. We can pretty much expect the models to have difficulty due to the blocking that is in place. Ultimately , i think it will depend on that blocking and its positioning. WITH THE STRONG VORTEX SETTING UP ACRS THE NE U.S...AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY STRONG THAT THE UPR LOW WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWVS COMPRISING ITS EVENTUAL POSITION AND STRENGTH ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. WHILE THE GFS WAS INITIALLY REJECTED BASED ON ITS ISSUES ACROSS THE EAST PAC...IT IS WORTH NOTING ITS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT UPR SYSTEM ACRS THE NE U.S. ON SUN EVENING WHILE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THIS FEATURE. IT DOES EVENTUALLY GET TO A SIMILAR RESULT AS OTHER MODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT IT IS DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPR LOW TRACKING ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST ON D5.5 WHICH IS NOT SEEN IN ANY OTHER MODEL. ONE INTERESTING THING TO NOTE IS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE SHORTWV CROSSING INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLC LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. THIS HAS DRAWN SOME INTRIGUE AS IT MAY BRING LATE AUTUMN SNOWFALL TO THOSE RGNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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