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What is your Stance on Global Warming/Climate Change?


Snow_Miser

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What is your Stance on Global Warming/Climate Change?

My stance on Climate Change has varied over the past. Back a few years ago, I was a firm believer in AGW, and believed it to be a solid fact. My school was shown An Inconvienient Truth by Al Gore, which inspired me to look up the facts for myself, instead of the misrepresentations given by that corrupt politician.

What I had discovered was an awful epiphany. I had discovered that the Anthropogenic Global Warming Proponents were suppressing Global Warming Skeptics' right of Free Speech. I was absolutely appalled by this discovery, and found that the facts for CAGW were not adding up. Moreover, I had found that Al Gore's movie had been hound to have nine significant errors in it, yet my school still decided to show his BS anyway.

The impact of co2 is logarithmic. No physics can change that, which means it can be overcome by Natural Cycles. My stance now, is that Global Warming is driven by mainly Natural Causes, and Man plays a very insignificant role in the overall Climate System. I believe, that as the natural oceanic oscillations reverse, we should see Global Cooling for roughly 30 years. I am almost perfectly on Professor Don J. Easterbrook's boat. I do NOT believe a Ice Age is on the brink of occuring.

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The Earth has been gradually warming since 1850 due to both natural and anthropogenic factors; although this warming has slowed recently, there is no reason to believe it will entirely stop. While the -PDO and low solar should limit warming in the next thirty years, by 2100 the Earth will probably have warmed by .5-1C as carbon dioxide emissions overwhelm the climate system, barring a catastrophic volcanic eruption or other such event. In my belief, most predictions of global warming have tended towards the extreme; the changes will not be apocalyptic, but they will have some negative effects on civilization. Humans should do the best they can to begin limiting emissions.

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My stance for Now.....

CO2/GHG/AGW, Deforestation, Urbanization, etc, have contributed to about 10-15% of the warming seen since 1850 (around 0.1C or less). We understand very well CO2 and how it behaves in a Vaccuum, and we understand its forcings on the climate system, which are about 1.2C/per Doubling...that is basic fact, and all sane scientists agree CO2's 1.2C/decade per doubling is real.

Where we have royally Screwed up, however, is in the regards to the feedback spectrum of the climate system, we have overestimated Climate sensitivty. We have assumed the climate system to be fully loaded with positive feedbacks amplifying the warming, rather than negative feedbacks obscuring any disturbance that may show up.

For as long as Earth has existed, internal energy/forcings within the Climate system, Including CO2 always been in Balance...and have been driven BY temperature.....as in, the Climate system has always contained itself from within. However, what has changed earths climate in the Long run has been External drivers, (the Sun), and how the climate system responds, so the earth naturally changes its heat budget.

The reason for 90% of the warming we have seen is the Sun, its effects/manipulation of the Climate system, Amplifying the recent +PDO/+AMO phase to the climate with warmer SST's, and a higher heat budget thru incoming energy!

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I've graduated more towards the middle in this debate. I believe AGW is real and is occurring, but is exaggerated for political reasons (and the deniers also have their political reasons). It makes it hard for science to progress since everyone seems to have a hard-on for one side of the debate in the general public and either believes that AGW is going to kill us all or AGW is some made-up liberal conspiracy.

I also believe that CO2 is over-exaggerated in this debate while other ways in which we affect the climate, such as deforestation, are neglected. It is also difficult, if not impossible, to tell how much of the warming since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution has been natural vs. anthropogenic, which further complicates the debate.

I don't really foresee the warming itself being a huge problem; it may actually lead to more arable land. However, the changing climate will cause precipitation patterns to change, which could result in some places getting drier and some places getting wetter. For example, if your area relies on melting winter snow to get water for that summer, then you may be in trouble in the future if the amount of snow decreases.

I really don't foresee rising sea levels being a problem this century, except maybe in some very low-lying areas. If Antarctica begins to warm dramatically, my outlook may change in that regard, however.

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