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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat


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From Raleigh: Gonna be an interesting day. At work in High Point this morning and the rain is hitting the warehouse roof pretty good. Be on your P's and Q's today folks!

WINDS TO

FIFTY MPH TO AS LOW AS 2500 FEET. GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE JET

LEVEL TO LINK WITH THE NEAR SURFACE FEATURES. LCL LEVELS DROPPING TO

AS LOW AT 1500 FEET WITH ZERO TO THREE KILOMETER STORM RELATIVE

HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2 INDICATE A REAL AND SIGNIFICANT

TORNADO THREAT. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE CAPE IN THE MINUS TEN TO

MINUS THIRTY LAYER WHILE SLIGHTLY RAISING THE FREEZING LEVEL TO NEAR

11000 FEET OVER PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL FEEL THE STRONGER

THUNDERSTORMS ARE A THREAT FOR GOLF BALL HAIL. UNCHANGED IS THE

BELIEF THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH... THERE MAY BE

LITTLE TIME FOR THE PUBLIC TO REACT TO ANY THREAT.

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Tornado Watch just issued until 1 pm for the Western 2/3rds of South Carolina and the US 74 Cooridor in North Carolina from Columbus (Polk County) to Wadesboro...Looks like the front may begin to pick up some intensity shortly after daybreak as it crosses the mountains. Then towards late morning things should really start geting active I-77 and east.

ww0149_radar.gif

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Most all creeks and streams are at bankful or slightly over here along the escarpment...kinda suprised there is not a Flash Flood Warning or Advisory for McDowell County. The catch basin's for the Catawba are doing a poor job directing the water through...plenty of people have campers located along the Catawba from where I live out to Lake James, they better keep an eye on things upsteam.

The atmospheric setup currently reminds me a lot of the summer time when a tropical system comes up through the Gulf. That monster upper low to our west is very well organized with bandling-like features. The low level winds are howling from the south south-southeast...they should begin to turn SSW very soon. It's gonna take little instability today for anyone in North Carolina to spin up a tornado.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

835 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

WESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 831 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

PRECIPITATION GAUGES INDICATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN

ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SINCE FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS

THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF

AN INCH OR MORE APPEAR LIKELY. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT NUMEROUS

STREAMS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE NEAR BANKFULL...WITH A COUPLE OF

STREAMS OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS IN AVERY COUNTY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO

OCCUR. AFFECTED STREAMS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...THE TOE

RIVER...TRIBUTARIES OF THE LINVILLE RIVER...JOHNS RIVER...

TRIBUTARIES OF THE CATAWBA RIVER...AND OTHER SMALL STREAMS NEAR

THE BLUE RIDGE.

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2.35" total here in Dahlonega. The middle of the night stuff must not have been all that much in terms of lightning as nothing woke me up. As foothills mentioned earlier this over performed IMBY up here in NE Georgia.

Looks like western NC down to GA was the hardest hit in rainfall, its been very paltry here. A sharp cutoff, which is pretty usual in southeast upslope flow situations, so far only .56" here, and then it ramps up to 2" just one county away. Also, no thunder here. Just constant wind. As a matter of fact, the winds are howling extremely just now.

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Officially 3.27 at KCHA. I recored 2.80 here, but that may be a bit low. Once the trees start to leaf out, my rain gauge is partially blocked during rain that falls with a south wind. Either way there is a lot of flooding around, and flood warnings are in place.

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