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April 15-16 Severe Weather threat

ATL_Militarypolice

By ATL_Militarypolice,
in Southeastern States

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

My guess is that the Mod risk will stay mostly in Alabama and maybe western GA. It's all about timing though. As far as a High risk being issued, I have my doubts. My guess is storms will start to weaken as they cross into GA.

They always do...<_< Hoping that changes tomorrow!

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kanc2001

kanc2001

Posted
Posted

Is it just me or does every storm system seem to move through GA at almost the exact same time lately ? The last 2 moved through around 10 or 11pm, and this one may do the same. What is up with that ?

noticed that here too, we get em between 3-7am, limits the severe (although the coastal trough helps that too)

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ryan1234

ryan1234

Posted
Posted

They always do...<_< Hoping that changes tomorrow!

Isn't it the most annoying thing?! I grew up in Woodstock not to far from you, and live in Charlotte now. I can't tell you how many time I have watch the radar explode over Alabama and then fizzle out as it pushes into the Atlanta metro, then redevelop as it pushes east into NE GA and the Upstate, then into Charlotte. And now that I live here, storms seem to of course weaken as they approach Charlotte. What gives? gun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gif

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dwagner88

dwagner88

Posted
Posted

They always do...<_< Hoping that changes tomorrow!

Well historically, the farther east you go from TX/OK, the lower the threat of tornadoes. Here is an article published last year rating the top 20 most tornado prone cities and states:

http://www.wifr.com/...s/17036536.html

While it is interesting to see that Nashville is at the top (I suspect that has more to do with Nashville's terrible problem with sprawl), I find it most interesting that Huntsville is so close to the top, while 75 miles to the NE, Chattanooga has a relatively low risk compared to areas around it. Topography certainly plays a role in that, but just this past month, a tornado caused damage to the top of Signal Mountain, and to the town of Red Bank at its base. Georgia has no cities in the top 20, and is 13th on the states list. The dynamic setup needed for tornadoes to form just doesn't happen as often as you move farther to the east, and the cutoff is pretty abrupt along the AL/GA line. I would guesstimate that the most tornado prone spot in GA is somewhere near Rome.

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weatherman566

weatherman566

Posted
Posted

Well historically, the farther east you go from TX/OK, the lower the threat of tornadoes. Here is an article published last year rating the top 20 most tornado prone cities and states:

http://www.wifr.com/...s/17036536.html

While it is interesting to see that Nashville is at the top (I suspect that has more to do with Nashville's terrible problem with sprawl), I find it most interesting that Huntsville is so close to the top, while 75 miles to the NE, Chattanooga has a relatively low risk compared to areas around it. Topography certainly plays a role in that, but just this past month, a tornado caused damage to the top of Signal Mountain, and to the town of Red Bank at its base. Georgia has no cities in the top 20, and is 13th on the states list. The dynamic setup needed for tornadoes to form just doesn't happen as often as you move farther to the east, and the cutoff is pretty abrupt along the AL/GA line. I would guesstimate that the most tornado prone spot in GA is somewhere near Rome.

Well, that makes a lot of sense! Typically we need an area of low pressure nearby to help enhance the dynamics for a tornado threat. However, many of the "stronger" lows typically push towards the poles. When this happens, they push further north as they go east, which would mean less tornado activity for GA vs MS or even Alabama. In regards to cities with high tornado threats in Georgia, I would say folks West of Atlanta, specifically SW of ATL (around Carroll County) see the bulk of the tornadic storms as they typically push from SW to NE out of central Alabama. Of course, that's not always the case.

As of now, NAM really want's to slow this storm down. GFS disagress in timing with NAM. GFS has the storms pushing out of eastern GA by 8-10am Saturday morning. However, NAM still wants to the storms to be around a couple of hours longer.....perhaps pushing out of Athens by 2pm Saturday afternoon.

I'm interested in the storms ahead of the front/line of storms that develop. I still think GA could see some nasty stuff, especially as the warm front pushes north. I still think the models are downplaying the instabilities in the regions. Once the warm front pushes through, the atmosphere should be able to support severe thunderstorms.

It's time to rely on mesoscale forecasts/surface analysis instead of model input now. It'll be interesting to see if and when the sun will come out and how our temperatures and dewpoints go up as the warm front pushes through Alabama and Georgia.

Where's the popcorn?

:popcorn:

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Sonny WX

Sonny WX

Posted
Posted

Amateur watching from south Louisiana at 11:20 PM CDT 4/14/10

activity_loop.gif

Hazard Thu (04/14) Fri (04/15) Sat (04/16) Sun (04/17) Mon (04/18) Tue (04/19) Wed (04/20) Thu

The center of circulation at this point is right over my friend in Nebraska. Here in Baton Rouge, we are awaiting the back-end of the circulation to move east from Texas. We are predicted to have effects Friday around 2pm - 7pm CDT and blowing on through and clearing by Saturday morning.

My relatives in NW Louisiana will be getting it sometime earlier than that, and they will be more likely to experience anything severe than we will have here. Our forecast is that most of the severe weather will stay north of us.

LOCAL OBS AS OF 30 MINUTES AGO:

Current conditions as of 10:52 PM CDT

Mostly Cloudy

Feels Like: 76 °F

Barometer: 29.8 in and falling

Humidity: 87 %

Visibility: 10 mi

Dewpoint: 70 °F

Wind: SSE 13 mph

UV Index: --

UV Description: Low

Sunrise: 6:37 AM

Sunset: 7:30 PM

Observations obtained at: The Weather Channel

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Well historically, the farther east you go from TX/OK, the lower the threat of tornadoes. Here is an article published last year rating the top 20 most tornado prone cities and states:

http://www.wifr.com/...s/17036536.html

While it is interesting to see that Nashville is at the top (I suspect that has more to do with Nashville's terrible problem with sprawl), I find it most interesting that Huntsville is so close to the top, while 75 miles to the NE, Chattanooga has a relatively low risk compared to areas around it. Topography certainly plays a role in that, but just this past month, a tornado caused damage to the top of Signal Mountain, and to the town of Red Bank at its base. Georgia has no cities in the top 20, and is 13th on the states list. The dynamic setup needed for tornadoes to form just doesn't happen as often as you move farther to the east, and the cutoff is pretty abrupt along the AL/GA line. I would guesstimate that the most tornado prone spot in GA is somewhere near Rome.

Number_of_Tornadoes_per_Ga_County.gif

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ryan1234

ryan1234

Posted
Posted

That map is old and doesn't include several tornadoes that hit my county ( Carroll ) in 2008.

Dude chill, the map isn't "old" it is fairly up to date. Carroll County is a lot more rural then Cobb, Cherokee, or Fulton so of course the numbers are higher there. Those are observed tornadoes, even to this day not every tornado touchdown becomes observed.

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Sonny WX

Sonny WX

Posted
Posted

Amateur watching from south Louisiana at 1:20 AM CDT 4/15/10

Little Rock, AR is currently under the gun.

NE Texas and NW Louisiana are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch

until 4:00 AM CDT

Map and watch text here:

ww0138_radar.gif

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.

Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 136...WW 137... DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0138.html

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

Looks like timing has changed a little with the arrival of our cold front (the Carolinas in particular). Though still expected to arrive during the morning hours, it now looks like a part of the early afternoon (1pm or 2pm) could be the time frame for those living in the western sections to experience the storms, which will depart afterwards through the mid and late afternoon hours. We still stand a chance for a possible squall line holding on as the front pushes through the rest of the Southeast with risks for isolated tornadic development. With a negatively tilted upper level low with some lift, a favorable exiting region from the upper level jet, and perhaps some instability (though the CAPE isn't strong but sufficient), some pre-frontal convection is possible before the main line arrives. Wind shear, particularly the deep layer and tropospheric winds (up to the mid levels), looks strong enough to allow some isolated super cellular development (discrete is possible) and of course a few bowing segments. Nonetheless, if anything, high winds from said segments will be the primary threat for most who are caught underneath. The areas in the eastern sections of the Carolinas will be able to tap into more of the daytime heating and thus allows perfect timing for the strong-severe storms to persist as they progress eastward and feed into more instability. An active Saturday is still on board as of now but as always, there's time for this to change even during the time that it is occurring.

I wish I could say the same about less threats for tornadoes for our friends across MS and AL but they are in for a very rough ride down there. You have moderate to near strong instability, DPs reaching 60+ thanks to the abundance of Gulf moisture, a strong LLJ that combined with the exiting area of the upper level jet that would cause a great deal of rotation to occur in some or many storms that develop. Powerful updrafts will result in some large hail (and could be ugly for some) that could produce a 3 inchers falling for spots. Best areas for super cells will most likely be most of MS and AL, though extreme western GA could see some tornadic action but should not be as bad for the folks further west. Overall, it looks to remain interesting for Friday and Saturday and we'll just have to see how our front behaves in order to get an idea on what really comes out in the end. Praying for everyone down there across MS and AL that they will be alright throughout the day. I'll be at work for a good chunk of the day so I won't be here to track this system with you guys until later in the early evening.

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Sonny WX

Sonny WX

Posted
Posted

Amateur Observer watching from south Louisiana at 2:15 AM 4/15/11

Updates for

Tornado Watch # 136 in Arkansas and

Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 138 in NE TX and NW LA

both set to expire at 4:00 AM CDT

Current Convective Watches

Updated: Fri Apr 15 07:10:11 UTC 2011

validww.pngwwlegend.png

ww0138_radar_thumb.gif Severe Thunderstorm Watch #138

Issued/Updated: Apr 15, 2011 at 0703 UTC

Expires: Apr 15, 2011 at 0900 UTC

Latest Watch Status Message

ww0136_radar_thumb.gif Tornado Watch #136

Issued/Updated: Apr 15, 2011 at 0703 UTC

Expires: Apr 15, 2011 at 0900 UTC

Latest Watch Status Message

The tail is moving around. But according to a news satellite graphic I just saw, the center of circulation has moved little if any in the last 4 hours.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

Hey Guys,

I just wanted to post a quick update on the severe weather threat in NC tomorrow.

http://www.examiner....rolina-saturday

Allan! Haven't seen much of you around here in a long while. How are things going? I still come by and check your blog every now and then. Terrific write ups as always. This weekend's going to be quite an active one for some folks. Despite the severity of the storms back west, thankfully it won't be nearly as bad further east but I agree that the wind gusts could be quite high for some and would be matching that of weak F1 speeds. Dangerous stuff indeed.

Beautiful look to the upper level low. Looks like a huge tropical storm on land: 15yz13b.jpg

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GaWx2688

GaWx2688

Posted
Posted

What is this system looking like for west Ga later today? I normally do not have a busy schedule, but today I do. Just curious if we will see pop up cells here ahead of the main front later today like they are getting in Al right now? The mets here do not act as if this situation warrants any real worry, but I just take no stock in them anymore. We need a James Spann in Atlanta.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

What is this system looking like for west Ga later today? I normally do not have a busy schedule, but today I do. Just curious if we will see pop up cells here ahead of the main front later today like they are getting in Al right now? The mets here do not act as if this situation warrants any real worry, but I just take no stock in them anymore. We need a James Spann in Atlanta.

You could have it pretty rough this afternoon. What I'm seeing from the Birmingham radar is getting stronger. Now tracking 35 cells, and one meso cell.

04-15-2.png

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